*S23 forum activity tier ranking

[Troen]

Last year for S22, I took a look at forum activity and used the information to try and classify members of the S22 class into different tiers of activity with an eye towards using it as a predictor for activity (in the TPE gaining sense) during those players' DSFL season. I followed up on that categorization by seeing how well it predicted activity and draft order and as I said in the conclusion

I believe my forum activity tiers were generally predictive of S21 TPE activities

And so with a new draft class approaching in the form of S23, I turned the analysis towards them!

Data collection note: I took names from the TPE tracker on 4/13 and looked at activity from then through 4/16 because I got distracted and didn't do it all at once. Also, with many fewer users, I tried to reach out to those where I noticed update pages which had mistakes, so hopefully that will help.

Tiers
As I predicted in my S22 followup post, I found fewer clear tiers of users in the much smaller (71 vs 271) class and ended up with 4.

1: The Recreates tier (31/71 players)
With no clear dividing line on recruiting like with last season's reddit post, I didn't include in-season created players in this tier. My logic for that is that most recreates have a good sense of what to do and so I'm assuming that the 3 players I saw who didn't yet have an update page are doing so because they know they don't need to until closer to the end of the offseason rather than because they don't know how. I also didn't think there was as much value in comparing them to the other groups since most are ineligible for rookie tasks and are almost universally active on the forums.
Top name: Close between Broken Bot2draftfinalasdasd and Datsum PhastBawls

2. The (New user) Forum content creators (15/71 players)
As with last time, users in this tier are those going past the rookie tasks and creating media. I ignored all PTs for the purposes for this (or at least I tried to). Nearly all users here completed all 6 rookie tasks and 5 of them had a processed update which I assume means they may have been waiver pickups and played on DSFL teams last season. As compared to the last article, those 5 players would have been in tier 1. The other 10 would have been in tier 2 still.
Top name: Greedy Sly

3. The Returning to the forum with valid update pages tier (13/71 players)
All users in this tier returned to the forum after 4/11 and at least 3 days after creation and had generally correct update pages. Most (8/13) completed some rookie tasks with all but 1 user completing 5 or 6. Less than half (5/13) had created a wiki page. Users in this tier would have been distributed in tiers 3-6 in the past post.
Top name: Rice Ahoc-Machine

4. The I'm not holding my breath tier (11/71 players)
This tier includes players with no update pages along with those who have not been back to the site in a while and had problems with their update pages (and interestingly enough there were zero new users who had not returned recently who had correct update pages). For the purposes of drafting, I'd guess those users who are still returning to the site are probably better bets despite no update page than those who have an update page and aren't coming back, but I'm grouping them together since I think both have red flags. These users would primarily have been in tiers 6-9 of my previous post.
Top name: I can't decide between Lesean Paris Crooks and Atossa Atlas

5. The Created after I copied names out of the TPE tracker "tier"
I still don't have time traveling writer abilities so I still don't have future players here. Sorry!

Names for reference
As a side note, if anyone who is reading this wants to suggest a better way to present the players (picture/links to user names/...?) I'd love suggestions.

1: The Recreates tier (31/71 players)
Bradley Owens, Quarterback
Charmin Glassley, Quarterback
Reginald Covington III, Quarterback
Arik Eller, Running Back
Carl Wheezer, Running Back
Quanter Skrills, Running Back
Brock Bodenhamer, Wide Receiver
Deonte Washington, Wide Receiver
Griff Oberwald, Wide Receiver
Luca Scabbia, Wide Receiver
Tychondrius Hood, Wide Receiver
Videl-San, Wide Receiver
Dick Thruster, Offensive Line
Dick Thunder, Offensive Line
Kevin Malone, Offensive Line
CJ Riley, Defensive End
Jim Namen Jr, Defensive End
Mr. Large Sternum, Defensive End
Water Chestnut III, Defensive End
Bane Ka?ana?ana, Defensive Tackle
Broken Bot2draftfinalasdasd, Defensive Tackle
Judas The White, Defensive Tackle
Griffin Porter, Linebacker
Omar Wright Jr., Linebacker
Tyrone Woods, Linebacker
Unoriginal Name, Cornerback
Adélie de Pengu, Safety
Bob Bob, Safety
Dick "Dickie" Cheese III, Safety
Mac Griddle, Safety
Datsum PhastBawls, Kicker/Punter

2. The (New user) Forum content creators (15/71 players)
Nicholas Ayers, Running Back
Dre Matthews, Wide Receiver
Kai Sakura, Wide Receiver
L’Carpetron Dookmarriot, Wide Receiver
Raphael d’Alcott, Wide Receiver
Eugene Smoothie, Tight End
Joseph Petrongolo, Tight End
Son Goku, Defensive End
Tycker Om, Defensive End
Joe Exotic, Defensive Tackle
Brian Earlbacher, Linebacker
Eric Richards, Linebacker
Heinrich Kackpoo, Linebacker
Ray-Ray Jackson, Cornerback
Greedy Sly, Safety
Kayleb Dotson, Safety

3. The Returning to the forum with valid update pages tier (13/71 players)
Danny King, Running Back
Rice Ahoc-Machine, Running Back
Doug Howlett, Wide Receiver
Brady Matthis, Tight End
Tomage McGullager, Tight End
Mordecai Morrisey, Defensive End
Tyler Montain, Defensive Tackle
Hingle McCringleberry, Linebacker
Byron Blackwell, Cornerback
Jason Young, Cornerback
Mikel van Perkins, Cornerback
DB Jadakiss, Safety
Joseph May, Safety

4. The I'm not holding my breath tier (11/71 players)
Geykume Onfroy, Running Back
CJ Hopkins, Tight End
Ethan Smith, Tight End
Rick Casey, Tight End
Julio Jones, Offensive Line
Diego Hernandez, Defensive Tackle
Yuuto Kira Cloudera, Defensive Tackle
Killian Carnahan, Cornerback
Lesean Paris Crooks, Cornerback
Atossa Atlas, Safety
Chaz Michaels, Safety

Conclusions/thoughts
Based on the S22 class, I'd expect the bulk of the active players to come from tier 1 and 2 with a few from tier 3 and maybe a few diamonds in the sofa rough from tier 4 and 5. Hopefully I'll do another followup at the end of the season and check it out and maybe I'll try to find a better, more specific way to order players.

[Sylphreni]

Thanks for the kind words Troen. Really nice piece, and an interesting metric by which to measure our draft class. I look forward to your future piece outlining how accurate you were.

Great job!

[Tylus]

Tier 1!!!! Thanks for vote of confidence! As a new player I hope to perform to the best of my ability. Great content. @Troen

[Jo3fish5]

Tier 2 ayyyyy
better than i thought id be lol
:partyblob:

[ValorX77]

Thank you for your kind words

[Confictional]

Very nice tier list! Thanks for the words!