07-07-2020, 06:00 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-08-2020, 03:03 AM by sakrosankt.)
I also wanted to take my chance on x2 media week. What I prepared for that, is an analysis of over and underachieving players in regards to fantasy points. Fantasy points let us see, how well a player does in the league individually, therefore it’s easy to compare different players at a given position. The only problem is, how do we know if a player is over- or underachieving, or pretty much does, what he is supposed to do. Well, to figure out what the baseline for every player is, I did 33,000 sims. Why that you may ask. I simmed every game of the season 500 times with the final strategies used. From that runs, I extracted the game stats for every player and each game, and calculated the average out of that for every gameday. In the end, I summed up the average for each gameday and came to the final stats of a player over the course of the season (until week 11). This data I compared to the current real stats, et viola, I have the difference of how a player did perform and how a player should have performed at average over the season. For displaying of data I round to full numbers for better readability (0.4 -> 0, 0.5 -> 1, etc). The average fantasy points are calculated with the average numbers though, not with the rounded ones.
Sorry in advance, some players slipped through my data gathering process and were missed. Most notably are QB Monty Jack from San Jose, WR Nick Kaepercolin from Baltimore and WR Thomas Passmann from Arizona. I’m sorry for not having you included here, I just realized that your data isn’t there after I did all the simulations. Those are not the only ones, I want to apologize to everyone I missed.
So, let’s dive into the analysis. I’ll split the players into their respective position group and put their respective numbers in there. I’ll start with the centerpiece of an offense, the quarterbacks.
Quarterback
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real pass yards/real pass TD:real INT, avg pass yards/avg pass TD:avg INT - real rush yds/rush TD, avg rush yds/rush TD - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
Easton Cole is currently the second best QB, and he pretty well plays to what you can expect from him. He passes for more, but scores less. He is only 3 pts behind his average. Something the following three QBs can’t say. McDummy, Armstrong and Banks II underachieve by far in terms of what the sim averages for them. McDummy would lead the league in pts, if he would play up to what he could. He has a devastating 9/7 TD:Int ratio, you’d expect him to do much better. And he ought to do better, how the average shows. He is 6:1 behind in what he was supposed to do so far. The only category he does what you can expect him to do is rushing. He rushed a little less, but scored the TDs he should.
Armstrong is only slightly behind McDummy point wise, which puts him in 5th overall, but as McDummy he should do better and be second in fantasy points. He even scored more than expected from him, but he lacks in rushing TDs. He has no rushing TD for the season, where he already should have scored 2.
After the top QBs, the next one is Dexter Banks II. In his first season playing as QB, he already racks up good numbers and sits right behind the top 4. His passing stats should be better than they are though. He is the QB with the third lowest difference between real stats and average. He scored a TD less and an interception more than he was expected to. In rushing he lives up to what he can do, but still has some room to improve, given the average numbers. Cooter Bigsby is very close behind Banks in terms of fantasy points. He also is a bit behind his average, but almost there. That’s why they both are within 1.2 points. Two more quarterbacks are in the mix for the middle of the pack in Brock Phoenix and Stan Francisco. They are slightly behind the two others, and both are doing like you could expect them to do. There are no big differences between the real stats and the average stats. In fact, Phoenix is the only QB besides Cue to do better than the average. It’s by far not in the dimension of Cue, but still a positive sign if you slightly overperform. Stan Francisco is also close to his average, but slightly below. He is 150 yards behind his yardage, but scored enough TDs to keep close to his average.
The lower tier of QBs this season is lead by Chika Fujiwara, who stepped up her game after a rough first season. Only slightly under average in points, she does pretty well. Although her TD:Int ratio is at 12:11, she was able to keep in touch with her average. Interceptions are still something she has to learn to avoid, as she is underachieving by far here. According to the average, she should only have around 7 at this point in time.
The #10 QB so far in fantasy points is the one who underperforms the most this season so far. Corvo Havran has the potential to be solid and in the middle of the pack tier, but he is almost 30 points below the average he should be at. In numbers it is 200 yards, 3 pass TDs and a rushing TD he is missing. Honolulu had a rough start into the season but started to perform better lately. Maybe Honolulu can set up some surprises if Havran plays up to what he can.
The last QB in this list is O’Donnell from the Chicago Butchers. He is also underachieving by far. The latest success of the Butchers didn’t take away the big difference in points he has and should have. A look at the 5:9 TD:Int ratio explains a lot. If he would play at what to expect from him, he would be at 10:9. Missing 5 TDs didn’t just hurt his fantasy points, but also Chicago in a season that runs better than some may have thought.
Again, sorry Monty Jack to not having stats for you here. You have a “ in your name which I somehow overlooked and realized just after I ran all the tests and extracted the data.
Running Back
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real rush yds/rush TD, avg rush yds/rush TD - real rec yds/rec TD, avg rec yds/rec TD - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
Ashley Owens plays a similar season as Kane-Maika’i, but just a level below in terms of points. He is a dual-threat, but has only slightly more rushing yards than his QB. But that’s nothing surprising in the Spread Offense they are running. With his receiving yards he still puts up good numbers, but could start to score slightly more after catching the ball. Baby Yoda on the other side is the Powerhouse of Arizona. As the only RB on the roster, he exceeds expectations at rushing yards. But he is a bit under his average, due to scoring less than exptected. Ruff Ruff, the speedster of Honolulu, is the second Hahalua who is overachieving. But he keeps it near expectations unlike his counterpart. He is the first option for Havran when it comes to rushing, which can be seen in yards and rush TDs. Tatsu Nakamura in his sophomore season is RB1 for the Otters. And he almost does all that is expected from him. He is a bit behind in scores and yards, but we’ve seen worse underachievers.
The next few RBs are all doing more than what can be expected from them - all except one. But we’ll come to that when it’s time. Like in the rankings, we have to wait a little until we come to him. The Hawks RBs are both overachieving slightly with 7 and almost 10 over for Williams and Reed. Torenson is also doing more than average, but the game from Philly seems to turned a bit more balanced than what they ran the last years. That’s why Torenson is not higher up the list initially. Rookie RB Jamar Lackson set the league on fire with his week 1 performance. I know some people, who dropped some top players just to pick up this guy. He calmed down a bit, but is still overachieving. With 130 yards more than you could expect, Lackson secured the RB1 spot in San Jose. The only thing he still is under his expectations is scoring, but this is something that will follow for sure. Dax Frost is another top performer who cooled down a bit after a hot start. Not many expected Frost to perform that well, as with the new QB Sarasota started to change its playing style. But Frost showed, that rushing is still a viable option and did everything so far, to punish opposing defenses for concentrating on passing plays. The last top performer in this part of the list is Acura Skyline. This phenomenon lighted up fantasy in the last few games last season. This year, he is the clear #2 behind Hanyadi, which shows in his stats. But he is still putting up more stats than you could expect from him.
Now, let’s talk about the underachiever of all of underachievers. Before the season, Mako Mendonca was discussed to be a #1 pick for fantasy, and many did pick him (including me). But Mendonca never played up to what you could expect from him, and is only #13 in points for RBs, 24th overall. He scored 44 points less than you would expect him to, which is not just bad, it’s very poor. I honestly don’t know why Mendonca is underachieving that much. He plays in a - what was thought to be - high flying offense, but somehow Austin struggled throughout the season, and hardly ever played up to its expectations. Maybe they are experimenting too much and should concentrate on old style of football. But who am I to say what they should do? I just hope Mendonca turns his season around with a strong finish, just for the sake of my fantasy aspirations.
The next player is also one, who was expected to do better. As the RB1 for Chicago, he was destined to rack up big rushing yardage numbers. But - on a lower level than Mendonca - he is also underachieving and lacks in rushing yards and scores. Kichwa Jones from Austin had to replace Ryan Leaf Jr. in Austin, and did well in doing so. He keeps up with Mendonca in rushing yards and finds his way into the endzone regularly. He just needs another touchdown to get exactly where he is averaging. Rando Cardrissian got his spotlight stolen by Lackson, and can’t seem to keep up with him stat wise. He is the first player on the list at under 100 fantasy points, which leads us to the lower tier RBs. All of them are consistently underachieving except oldie Ludicolo Bigby, who seem to do exactly what is asked from him. Fuzzy Dotson, RB 2 for Philadelphia, lacks a bit of yardage. Rookie RBs Running Back and Richard Gilbert seem to still have to get used to play at NSFL, which could explain their numbers. Running Back does good yard-wise, but lacks in scores. Gilbert lacks in yardage and scores.
Farley Hank is playing below expectations as his RB1 colleague. Imagine Chicago playing at expectations, that’s scary. NOLA already saw why the Butchers have their name. Vincent, Skuff and Drake aren’t really playing a role at their respective teams, which also shows in their statlines.
Wide Receivers
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real rec yds/rec TD, avg rec yds/rec TD - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
The first pursuer is Rayne Gordon, who is quite lonely in his hunt. He is also playing over his expectations, as all of the current top 5 receiver do. Nacho Varga and Ed Barker are the other two. Both are overperforming by scoring TDs, in yards they are under their average. Jed Podolak is a bit disappointing this season. From expectations, he should challenge Gordon at the #3 spot, but he is in the fight with some other players for the fourth place. He needs to find a way to rack up some more yardage, to tackle the top 3. It is no surprise to see Future Trunks at a difference of +15.7. Hardly anyone expected him to do this well before the start of the season. He already scored 2 more TDs than expected and got 70 yards over the mark by doing so.
It would be interesting how Passmann fares in that statistics, as he is even a place before Trunks in fantasy point ranking. As I already said, somehow he slipped through my process. I guess Passmann is overachieving by far, with already scoring 7 TDs, but who knows?
William Lim, new WR1 from Colorado, isn’t really playing up to his expectations which put him as a top receiver in the league. His last game was already a step in the right direction, now he has to find the endzone more often. Bur’Berry, the next Arizona receiver, is also overperforming by far. 50 yards and a score more than expected, no wonder Jay Cue is so far ahead in fantasy with this amazing receiving corps. Rodriguez is the first YKW receiver mentioned, but he isn’t far off his average. He racked up good yardage, but misses the scores. Thomas-Fox couldn’t repeat his amazing season, as was to be expected after the QB change. He still plays over his expectations and succeeds in fighting for yardage against every opponent. Hugh Mongo is the victim of Trunks success it seems, but he is still doing well. Although he is almost 100 yards behind his yardage average, he found the endzone 5 times and made up for the lack that way.
Rod Tidwell, Asher Quinn, Seah O’Leary and Randy Vuxta are all underperforming by over 10 points. Tidwell seems to suffer under the success of Gaines, whereas Quinn generally seems to have forgotten where the endzone is. He only scored 1 TD in this season. O’Leary is underperforming like all Chicago players do, and should already be close to 800 yards instead of his 635. Vuxta is set back a bit in terms of TDs, he recorded 2 of 4 expected. In the middle of this pack is Action Jackson, who does very well in Yellowknife and performs better than his average would suggest. On the other side is Nate Swift. The oldie underperforms badly, with 130 yards and 1 score less than what you could expect. The young Eddie Jeeta seems to complete the receiving attack of Austin, and makes up for the performances of Tidwell with some stellar showings. He really pops off at times in a game and shows that a bright future lies ahead of him. Right next in the ranking is Michael Witheblock, who isn’t playing at his level. You can expect a bit more from him, but he still plays solid games most of the time.
The young receiving core from Chicago, the rookies Okusi and Oberwald are doing very good and try to make up a bit for O’Leary. Chris Kross is also doing what he can in the limited chances he gets. Blake Alexander pops off from time to time and plays way over his expectations. He already has double the stats he was supposed to have. Flash Panda is playing exactly at his level, as does Hardagain for the Wraiths. This leaves some names left, and all of them are underachieving pretty big. All of them are behind by over 10 points, with the best of the pack being rookies Hood and Kingston. Jacoby Clay seems to suffer under the performance of Havran, as does William Alexander. Both are at over -25 points. The two Yeti wideouts Arrow and Bishop also are a part of why McDummy is still at only 9 touchdowns, I suppose. both are at the lower end of the list and underachieving, that’s not really a good sign.
Edit: It seems I've mixed up the two Alexanders, sorry for that. I'll leave your stats as they are in here, as I'm not sure if your stats from projection are correct now, sorry for that. It's possible that I mixed up your statlines from fantasy and from projections, so you both are closer to what your average is than shown here.
Tight Ends
I know that TE can be used as rushers to, but I leave that out as none has significant numbers to show. They are included in the calculations of fantasy points though.
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real rec yds/rec TD, avg rec yds/rec TD - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
James Angler, the rookie out of Sarasota is the one who is supposed to be second going by average, but he massively lacks in scores. He only found the endzone once the whole season. He has to improve that to tackle the second place amongst TE. McDavid overperforms by far, with already getting some scores and more yardage as expected. He seems to be the big target Jack is looking for in his first season. Earl Sauce is the last TE exceed his average, he does slightly better than what you could expect from him. The other TE don’t live up to their expectations. Heath Evans gets robbed by his wideout teammates it seems, as those rack up crazy numbers. Larson is underachieving a bit, but it’s not in a range you have to worry about. Wolfcastle, Lewandowski and George on the other side need to find their groove to rise up the rankings. They all are underperforming, most notably in finding the endzone. Clark Boyd and Donatello Arrabiata are close to what you can expect from them. In fact, Arrabiata is the definition at playing at a level you can expect, with being only 0.1 pts off average. The two Chicago TE have a rough time for now, they are slightly underperforming, by struggling to put up big numbers.
Kickers
I don’t include in depth kicking stats here, sorry. If someone wants to know the projected ones
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
The current leader is Silver Banana. He is 1 point ahead of Smalls, which is equal to 1 XP. Smalls is supposed to lead the pack in a close race, but those two set a bit of a distance between them and the third place. Alex D. sits at 100 points and is overachieving like the rest of the top 7. All of them scored more than what was expected from them, some by more than others. The only kicker that averages on the same place as he currently is, is Fußballgott Herbert Prohaska at the 5th position. He is also the player who came closest to his average at 1.9. Jay-Jamison is one place ahead of him, taking advantage of the high powering Outlaws offense. Matty McDairmid and ForThe Brand complete the top 7. McDairmid is scoring field goals this season, after the surprisingly strong Sabercats somehow didn’t really score such last season. The rest of the ranking is from those players, who don’t get as much chances to score as expected, except for Sam Sidekick from Chicago.
Alfredo Crisco is expected to be in the hunt for the first place, but due to a lack of FG opportunities, he misses out on valuable points for him. Lefty Louis from Philadelphia is almost were to expect him, but the last two places are those who suffer the most from the lack of field goals. Small and Powers are at 19 and 28 points under average, which seems to be a lack of scoring opportunities.
I didn’t do the Defense calculations, as I missed some players there too, which would have made the output inaccurate.
Finally, the top 5 performers and top 5 underachiever. It has to be noted that 3 of 5 underachiever are from the Honolulu Hahalua. The top performer doesn’t really make up for that, as the following team ranking shows.
Top 5 Performer
On the one side it’s good, if you are a top performer or the best performing team. On the other side, you are kind of lucky because the sim chose you to overperform. On the bottom it’s sad that you are so low, but again, the sim chose you to perform that way. It seems to be some kind of luck indicator, as the averages sum up of how a player will perform in average in a game. But of course, only one game is picked in the end.
Sorry in advance, some players slipped through my data gathering process and were missed. Most notably are QB Monty Jack from San Jose, WR Nick Kaepercolin from Baltimore and WR Thomas Passmann from Arizona. I’m sorry for not having you included here, I just realized that your data isn’t there after I did all the simulations. Those are not the only ones, I want to apologize to everyone I missed.
So, let’s dive into the analysis. I’ll split the players into their respective position group and put their respective numbers in there. I’ll start with the centerpiece of an offense, the quarterbacks.
Quarterback
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real pass yards/real pass TD:real INT, avg pass yards/avg pass TD:avg INT - real rush yds/rush TD, avg rush yds/rush TD - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
- 1, 3 - 1, 3 - Jay Cue, Arizona Outlaws, 2834/20:8, 2910/15:10, 407/3, 340/2 - 216.06, 188.81 - diff: +27.25
- 2, 4 - 3, 5 - Easton Cole, Austin Copperheads, 2736/17:7, 2864/19:8, 178/2, 164/1 - 176.24, 179.41 - diff: -3.17
- 3, 1 - 4, 1 - Wolfie McDummy, Colorado Yeti, 2434/9:7, 2546/15:8, 414/4, 458/4 - 175.76, 200.76 - diff: -25
- 4, 2 - 5, 2 - Franklin Armstrong, Orange County Otters, 2572/19:6, 2628/17:7, 276/0, 372/2 - 175.48, 191.48 - diff: -16
- 5, 5 - 8; 8 - Dexter Banks II, Sarasota Sailfish, 2225/12:9, 2370/13:8, 262/2, 299/2 - 145.2, 162.78 - diff: -17.58
- 6, 6 - 12, 10 - Cooter Bigsby, Yellowknife Wraiths, 2789/15:9, 2715/16:9, 55/0, 43/0 - 144.06, 146.95 - diff: -2.89
- 7, 8 - 18, 19 - Brock Phoenix, Philadelphia Liberty 2260/19:9, 2343/15:7, 46/0, 49/0 - 134, 131.6 - diff: +2.34
- 8, 9 - 21, 20 - Stan Francisco, New Orleans Second Line 2282/16:8, 2430/15:7, 52/0, 30/0 - 128.48, 130.61 - diff: -2.13
- 9, 10 - 30, 29 - Chika Fujiwara, Baltimore Hawks 2094/12:11, 2104/12:7, 43/1, 42/0 - 108.06, 112.21 - diff: -4.15
- 10, 7 - 34, 16 - Corvo Havran, Honolulu Hahalua - 2040/9:7, 2252/12:7, 108/0, 161/1 - 105.4, 134.18 - diff: -28.78
- 11, 11 - 48, 35 - George O’Donnell, Chicago Butchers - 2049/5:9, 2101/10:9, 67/0, 56/0 - 85.66, 102.87 - diff: -17.21
Easton Cole is currently the second best QB, and he pretty well plays to what you can expect from him. He passes for more, but scores less. He is only 3 pts behind his average. Something the following three QBs can’t say. McDummy, Armstrong and Banks II underachieve by far in terms of what the sim averages for them. McDummy would lead the league in pts, if he would play up to what he could. He has a devastating 9/7 TD:Int ratio, you’d expect him to do much better. And he ought to do better, how the average shows. He is 6:1 behind in what he was supposed to do so far. The only category he does what you can expect him to do is rushing. He rushed a little less, but scored the TDs he should.
Armstrong is only slightly behind McDummy point wise, which puts him in 5th overall, but as McDummy he should do better and be second in fantasy points. He even scored more than expected from him, but he lacks in rushing TDs. He has no rushing TD for the season, where he already should have scored 2.
After the top QBs, the next one is Dexter Banks II. In his first season playing as QB, he already racks up good numbers and sits right behind the top 4. His passing stats should be better than they are though. He is the QB with the third lowest difference between real stats and average. He scored a TD less and an interception more than he was expected to. In rushing he lives up to what he can do, but still has some room to improve, given the average numbers. Cooter Bigsby is very close behind Banks in terms of fantasy points. He also is a bit behind his average, but almost there. That’s why they both are within 1.2 points. Two more quarterbacks are in the mix for the middle of the pack in Brock Phoenix and Stan Francisco. They are slightly behind the two others, and both are doing like you could expect them to do. There are no big differences between the real stats and the average stats. In fact, Phoenix is the only QB besides Cue to do better than the average. It’s by far not in the dimension of Cue, but still a positive sign if you slightly overperform. Stan Francisco is also close to his average, but slightly below. He is 150 yards behind his yardage, but scored enough TDs to keep close to his average.
The lower tier of QBs this season is lead by Chika Fujiwara, who stepped up her game after a rough first season. Only slightly under average in points, she does pretty well. Although her TD:Int ratio is at 12:11, she was able to keep in touch with her average. Interceptions are still something she has to learn to avoid, as she is underachieving by far here. According to the average, she should only have around 7 at this point in time.
The #10 QB so far in fantasy points is the one who underperforms the most this season so far. Corvo Havran has the potential to be solid and in the middle of the pack tier, but he is almost 30 points below the average he should be at. In numbers it is 200 yards, 3 pass TDs and a rushing TD he is missing. Honolulu had a rough start into the season but started to perform better lately. Maybe Honolulu can set up some surprises if Havran plays up to what he can.
The last QB in this list is O’Donnell from the Chicago Butchers. He is also underachieving by far. The latest success of the Butchers didn’t take away the big difference in points he has and should have. A look at the 5:9 TD:Int ratio explains a lot. If he would play at what to expect from him, he would be at 10:9. Missing 5 TDs didn’t just hurt his fantasy points, but also Chicago in a season that runs better than some may have thought.
Again, sorry Monty Jack to not having stats for you here. You have a “ in your name which I somehow overlooked and realized just after I ran all the tests and extracted the data.
Running Back
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real rush yds/rush TD, avg rush yds/rush TD - real rec yds/rec TD, avg rec yds/rec TD - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
- 1, 1 - 2, 4 - Mathias Hanyadi, Yellowknife Wraiths, 860/10, 934/8 - 357/2, 326/2 - 193.7, 184.7 - diff: +9
- 2, 9 - 6, 17 - Keʻokeʻo Kāne-Maikaʻi, Honolulu Hahalua, 665/6, 565/4 - 482/2, 413/2 - 162.7, 132.1 - diff: +30.6
- 3, 4 - 7, 9 - Marcella Toriki, New Orleans Second Line, 823/8, 829/6 - 185/2, 302/2 - 160.8, 160.9 - diff: -0.1
- 4, 3 - 9, 7 - Forrest Gump, New Orleans Second Line, 671/2, 679/5 - 479/3, 465/3 - 145, 165.6 - diff: -20.6
- 5, 7 - 13, 13 - Ashley Owens, Colorado Yeti, 494/6, 530/4 - 428/2, 508/3 - 140.2, 143.7 - diff: -3.5
- 6, 6 - 14, 12 - Baby Yoda, Arizona Outlaws, 781/7, 680/8 - 177/0, 241/1 - 137.8, 144.1 - diff: -6.3
- 7, 10 - 15, 18 - Ruff Ruff, Honolulu Hahalua, 750/7, 756/5 - 203/0, 186/1 - 137.3, 131.9 - diff: +5.4
- 8, 5 - 16, 11 - Tatsu Nakamura, Orange County Otters, 923/6, 828/7 - 82/0, 140/1 - 136.5, 146 - diff: -9.5
- 9, 11 - 19, 21 - Darrell Williams, Baltimore Hawks, 799/5, 818/5 - 97/2, 101/0 - 131.6, 124.7 - diff: +6.9
- 10, 12 - 20, 22 - Sam Torenson, Philadelphia Liberty, 839/4, 829/4 - 152/1, 116/1 - 129.1, 123.8 - diff: +5.3
- 11, 15 - 22, 26 - Jamar Lackson, San Jose Sabercats, 931/5, 804/4 - 52/0, 85/0 - 128.3, 116.2 - diff: +12.1
- 12, 13 - 23, 24 - Dax Frost, Sarasota Sailfish, 733/6, 696/5 - 104/1, 149/1 - 125.7, 117.6 - diff: +8.1
- 13, 2 - 24, 6 - Mako Mendonca, Austin Copperheads, 557/6, 643/6 - 325/0, 495/3 - 124.2, 168.1 - diff: -43.9
- 14, 16 - 26, 31 - Acura Skyline, Yellowknife Wraiths, 541/5, 447/4 - 361/0, 320/2 - 120.2, 110.6 - diff: +9.6
- 15, 14 - 27, 25 - Apollo Reed, Baltimore Hawks, 797/6, 795/5 - 42/0, 65/0 - 119.9, 116.3 - diff: +3.6
- 16, 8 - 28, 15 - Julio Tirtawidjaja, Chicago Butchers, 865/3, 915/5 - 102/0, 114/0 - 114.7, 135.8 - diff: -21.1
- 17, 17 - 36, 32 - Kichwa Jones, Austin Copperheads, 637/5, 617/5 - 94/0, 109/1 - 103.1, 109.1 - diff: -6.0
- 18, 18 - 45, 38 - Rando Cardrissian, San Jose Sabercats, 493/3, 570/3 - 235/0, 206/1 - 90.8, 99.9 - diff: -9.1
- 19, 19 - 54, 47 - Fuzzy Dotson, Philadelphia Liberty, 535/3, 588/3 - 81/0, 79/0 - 79.6, 89.4 - diff: -9.8
- 20, 20 - 63, 52 - Running Back, Sarasota Sailfish, 512/1, 548/4 - 35/0, 33/0 - 60.7, 81.6 - diff: -20.9
- 21, 21 - 67, 63 - Richard Gilbert, Colorado Yeti, 259/1, 136/3 - 134/2, 136/1 - 57.3, 68.8 - diff: -11.5
- 22, 23 - 69, 71 - Ludicolo Bigby, Orange County Otters, 291/3, 286/3 - 29/0, 21/0 - 50, 49.2 - diff: +0.8
- 23, 22 - 73, 68 - Farley Hank, Chicago Butchers, 401/1, 364/2 - 9/0, 52/0 - 47, 57.6 - diff: -10.6
- 24, 24 - 91, 86 - Michael Vincent, Colorado Yeti, 122/0, 158/1 - 73/0, 74/0 - 19.5, 32.4 - diff: -12.9
- 25, 25 - 94, 93 - Rick Skuff, Baltimore Hawks, 52/0, 60/0 - 115/0, 111/1 - 16.7, 22.8 - diff: -6.1
- 26, 26 - 96, 96 - Orien Drake, San Jose Sabercats, 0/0, 0/0 - 37/0, 79/0 - 3.7, 10.6 - diff: -6.9
Ashley Owens plays a similar season as Kane-Maika’i, but just a level below in terms of points. He is a dual-threat, but has only slightly more rushing yards than his QB. But that’s nothing surprising in the Spread Offense they are running. With his receiving yards he still puts up good numbers, but could start to score slightly more after catching the ball. Baby Yoda on the other side is the Powerhouse of Arizona. As the only RB on the roster, he exceeds expectations at rushing yards. But he is a bit under his average, due to scoring less than exptected. Ruff Ruff, the speedster of Honolulu, is the second Hahalua who is overachieving. But he keeps it near expectations unlike his counterpart. He is the first option for Havran when it comes to rushing, which can be seen in yards and rush TDs. Tatsu Nakamura in his sophomore season is RB1 for the Otters. And he almost does all that is expected from him. He is a bit behind in scores and yards, but we’ve seen worse underachievers.
The next few RBs are all doing more than what can be expected from them - all except one. But we’ll come to that when it’s time. Like in the rankings, we have to wait a little until we come to him. The Hawks RBs are both overachieving slightly with 7 and almost 10 over for Williams and Reed. Torenson is also doing more than average, but the game from Philly seems to turned a bit more balanced than what they ran the last years. That’s why Torenson is not higher up the list initially. Rookie RB Jamar Lackson set the league on fire with his week 1 performance. I know some people, who dropped some top players just to pick up this guy. He calmed down a bit, but is still overachieving. With 130 yards more than you could expect, Lackson secured the RB1 spot in San Jose. The only thing he still is under his expectations is scoring, but this is something that will follow for sure. Dax Frost is another top performer who cooled down a bit after a hot start. Not many expected Frost to perform that well, as with the new QB Sarasota started to change its playing style. But Frost showed, that rushing is still a viable option and did everything so far, to punish opposing defenses for concentrating on passing plays. The last top performer in this part of the list is Acura Skyline. This phenomenon lighted up fantasy in the last few games last season. This year, he is the clear #2 behind Hanyadi, which shows in his stats. But he is still putting up more stats than you could expect from him.
Now, let’s talk about the underachiever of all of underachievers. Before the season, Mako Mendonca was discussed to be a #1 pick for fantasy, and many did pick him (including me). But Mendonca never played up to what you could expect from him, and is only #13 in points for RBs, 24th overall. He scored 44 points less than you would expect him to, which is not just bad, it’s very poor. I honestly don’t know why Mendonca is underachieving that much. He plays in a - what was thought to be - high flying offense, but somehow Austin struggled throughout the season, and hardly ever played up to its expectations. Maybe they are experimenting too much and should concentrate on old style of football. But who am I to say what they should do? I just hope Mendonca turns his season around with a strong finish, just for the sake of my fantasy aspirations.
The next player is also one, who was expected to do better. As the RB1 for Chicago, he was destined to rack up big rushing yardage numbers. But - on a lower level than Mendonca - he is also underachieving and lacks in rushing yards and scores. Kichwa Jones from Austin had to replace Ryan Leaf Jr. in Austin, and did well in doing so. He keeps up with Mendonca in rushing yards and finds his way into the endzone regularly. He just needs another touchdown to get exactly where he is averaging. Rando Cardrissian got his spotlight stolen by Lackson, and can’t seem to keep up with him stat wise. He is the first player on the list at under 100 fantasy points, which leads us to the lower tier RBs. All of them are consistently underachieving except oldie Ludicolo Bigby, who seem to do exactly what is asked from him. Fuzzy Dotson, RB 2 for Philadelphia, lacks a bit of yardage. Rookie RBs Running Back and Richard Gilbert seem to still have to get used to play at NSFL, which could explain their numbers. Running Back does good yard-wise, but lacks in scores. Gilbert lacks in yardage and scores.
Farley Hank is playing below expectations as his RB1 colleague. Imagine Chicago playing at expectations, that’s scary. NOLA already saw why the Butchers have their name. Vincent, Skuff and Drake aren’t really playing a role at their respective teams, which also shows in their statlines.
Wide Receivers
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real rec yds/rec TD, avg rec yds/rec TD - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
- 1, 1 - 10, 14 - Saba Donut, Arizona Outlaws - 1024/7, 1004/6 - 144.4, 136.5 - diff: +7.9
- 2, 2 - 11, 23 - Net Gaines, Austin Copperheads - 901/9, 846/6 - 144.1, 120.8 - diff: +23.3
- 3, 4 - 25, 30 - Rayne Gordon, Sarasota Sailfish - 865/5, 824/5 - 122.5, 112.2 - diff: +10.3
- 4, 9 - 32, 39 - Nacho Varga, Philadelphia Liberty - 647/7, 701/5 - 106.7, 98.7 - diff: +8.0
- 5, 11 - 33, 41 - Ed Barker, New Orleans Second Line - 705/6, 710/4 - 106.5, 97.3 - diff: +9.2
- 6, 3 - 35, 28 - Jed Podolak, Honolulu Hahalua - 737/5, 824/5 - 103.7, 112.2 - diff: -8.5
- 7, 14 - 37, 50 - Future Trunks, Orange County Otters - 652/6, 592/4 - 101.2, 85.5 - diff: +15.7
- 8, 5 - 39, 33 - William Lim, Colorado Yeti - 793/3, 767/5 - 97.3, 105.2 - diff: -7.9
- 9, 15 - 40, 55 - Jah Bur’Berry, Arizona Outlaws - 672/5, 622/3 - 97.2, 80.9 - diff: +16.3
- 10, 8 - 41, 37 - Bender B. Rodriguez, Yellowknife Wraiths - 788/3, 728/5 -96.8, 101.6 - diff: -4.8
- 11, 13 - 42, 48 - Deondre Thomas-Fox, San Jose Sabercats - 685/4, 673/3 - 92.5, 88 - diff: +4.5
- 12, 10 - 43, 40 - Hugh Mongo, Orange County Otters - 620/5, 717/4 - 92, 98.6 - diff: -6.6
- 13, 6 - 46, 34 - Rod Tidwell, Austin Copperheads - 662/4, 722/5 - 90.2, 103.9 - diff: -13.7
- 14, 12 - 51, 43 - Asher Quinn, Baltimore Hawks - 762/1, 689/4 - 82.2, 93.7 - diff: -11.5
- 15, 17 - 52, 60 - Action Jackson, Yellowknife Wraiths - 519/5, 557/4 - 81.9, 76.7 - diff: +5.2
- 16, 7 - 53, 36 - Sean O’Leary, Chicago Butchers - 635/3, 779/4 - 81.5, 102.0 - diff: -20.5
- 17, 16 - 61, 59 - Randy Vuxta, Philadelphia Liberty - 516/2, 552/4 - 63.6, 76.7 - diff: -13.1
- 18, 21 - 62, 70 - Eddie Jeeta, Austin Copperheads - 392/4, 363/2 - 63.2, 51.2 - diff: +12
- 19, 18 - 65, 64 - Michael Witheblock, Sarasota Sailfish - 414/3, 482/3 - 59.4, 64.5 - diff: -5.1
- 20, 20 - 66, 69 - Raheem Okusi, Chicago Butchers - 528/1, 432/2 - 58.8, 55 - diff: +3.8
- 21, 27 - 71, 82 - Chris Kross, Baltimore Hawks - 303/3, 295/2 - 48.3, 39.7 - diff: +8.6
- 22, 19 - 72, 65 - Nate Swift, Yellowknife Wraiths - 354/2, 480/3 - 47.4, 64.5 - diff: -17.1
- 23, 26 - 74, 80 - Griff Oberwald, Chicago Butchers - 404/1, 327/1 - 46.4, 41.6 - diff: +4.8
- 24, 31 - 77, 92 - Blake Alexander, New Orleans Second Line - 307/2, 179/1 - 23.9, 42.7 - diff: +18.8
- 25, 28 - 78, 84 - Flash Panda, Philadelphia Butchers - 185/3, 241/2 - 36.5, 34.8 - diff: +1.7
- 26, 24 - 82, 77 - Tychondrius Hood, San Jose Sabercats - 304/0, 332/2 - 30.4, 42.6 - diff: -12.2
- 27, 25 - 85, 79 - Jackson Kingston, Colorado Yeti - 223/1, 315/2 - 28.3, 42.1 - diff: -13.8
- 28, 22 - 87, 72 - Jacoby Clay, Honolulu Hahalua - 230/0, 370/2 - 23, 48 - diff: +25
- 29, 32 - 88, 95 - Willie B. Hardagain, Yellowknife Wraiths - 160/1, 138/1 - 22, 19.5 - diff: +2.5
- 30, 29 - 90, 88 - Red Arrow, Colorado Yeti - 199/0, 214/1 - 19.9, 30.0 - diff: -10.1
- 31, 30 - 95, 89 - James Bishop, Colorado Yeti - 192/0, 223/1 - 19.2, 29.8 - diff: -10.6
- 32, 23 - 93, 74 - William Alexander, Honolulu Hahalua - 180/0, 348/2 - 18, 46.2 - diff: -28.2
The first pursuer is Rayne Gordon, who is quite lonely in his hunt. He is also playing over his expectations, as all of the current top 5 receiver do. Nacho Varga and Ed Barker are the other two. Both are overperforming by scoring TDs, in yards they are under their average. Jed Podolak is a bit disappointing this season. From expectations, he should challenge Gordon at the #3 spot, but he is in the fight with some other players for the fourth place. He needs to find a way to rack up some more yardage, to tackle the top 3. It is no surprise to see Future Trunks at a difference of +15.7. Hardly anyone expected him to do this well before the start of the season. He already scored 2 more TDs than expected and got 70 yards over the mark by doing so.
It would be interesting how Passmann fares in that statistics, as he is even a place before Trunks in fantasy point ranking. As I already said, somehow he slipped through my process. I guess Passmann is overachieving by far, with already scoring 7 TDs, but who knows?
William Lim, new WR1 from Colorado, isn’t really playing up to his expectations which put him as a top receiver in the league. His last game was already a step in the right direction, now he has to find the endzone more often. Bur’Berry, the next Arizona receiver, is also overperforming by far. 50 yards and a score more than expected, no wonder Jay Cue is so far ahead in fantasy with this amazing receiving corps. Rodriguez is the first YKW receiver mentioned, but he isn’t far off his average. He racked up good yardage, but misses the scores. Thomas-Fox couldn’t repeat his amazing season, as was to be expected after the QB change. He still plays over his expectations and succeeds in fighting for yardage against every opponent. Hugh Mongo is the victim of Trunks success it seems, but he is still doing well. Although he is almost 100 yards behind his yardage average, he found the endzone 5 times and made up for the lack that way.
Rod Tidwell, Asher Quinn, Seah O’Leary and Randy Vuxta are all underperforming by over 10 points. Tidwell seems to suffer under the success of Gaines, whereas Quinn generally seems to have forgotten where the endzone is. He only scored 1 TD in this season. O’Leary is underperforming like all Chicago players do, and should already be close to 800 yards instead of his 635. Vuxta is set back a bit in terms of TDs, he recorded 2 of 4 expected. In the middle of this pack is Action Jackson, who does very well in Yellowknife and performs better than his average would suggest. On the other side is Nate Swift. The oldie underperforms badly, with 130 yards and 1 score less than what you could expect. The young Eddie Jeeta seems to complete the receiving attack of Austin, and makes up for the performances of Tidwell with some stellar showings. He really pops off at times in a game and shows that a bright future lies ahead of him. Right next in the ranking is Michael Witheblock, who isn’t playing at his level. You can expect a bit more from him, but he still plays solid games most of the time.
The young receiving core from Chicago, the rookies Okusi and Oberwald are doing very good and try to make up a bit for O’Leary. Chris Kross is also doing what he can in the limited chances he gets. Blake Alexander pops off from time to time and plays way over his expectations. He already has double the stats he was supposed to have. Flash Panda is playing exactly at his level, as does Hardagain for the Wraiths. This leaves some names left, and all of them are underachieving pretty big. All of them are behind by over 10 points, with the best of the pack being rookies Hood and Kingston. Jacoby Clay seems to suffer under the performance of Havran, as does William Alexander. Both are at over -25 points. The two Yeti wideouts Arrow and Bishop also are a part of why McDummy is still at only 9 touchdowns, I suppose. both are at the lower end of the list and underachieving, that’s not really a good sign.
Edit: It seems I've mixed up the two Alexanders, sorry for that. I'll leave your stats as they are in here, as I'm not sure if your stats from projection are correct now, sorry for that. It's possible that I mixed up your statlines from fantasy and from projections, so you both are closer to what your average is than shown here.
Tight Ends
I know that TE can be used as rushers to, but I leave that out as none has significant numbers to show. They are included in the calculations of fantasy points though.
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real rec yds/rec TD, avg rec yds/rec TD - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
- 1, 1 - 17, 27 - Jeffrey Phillips, Orange County Otters - 868/8, 824/5 - 134.8, 113.2 - diff: +21.6
- 2, 3 - 55, 66 - Avon Blocksdale Jr., Philadelphia Liberty - 479/5, 456/3 - 78.2, 62.4 - diff: +15.8
- 3, 4 - 59, 67 - Austin McCormick, New Orleans Second Line - 456/5, 459/3 - 75.6, 61.5 - diff: +14.1
- 4, 2 - 60, 51 - James Angler, Sarasota Sailfish - 580/1, 632/4 - 64, 84.5 - diff: -20.5
- 5, 11 - 68, 85 - Leon McDavid, San Jose Sabercats - 337/3, 262/1 - 51.7, 32.5 - diff: +19.2
- 6, 10 - 75, 83 - Earl Sauce, Colorado Yeti - 392/1, 304/1 - 45.2, 39.4 - diff: +5.8
- 7, 6 - 76, 75 - Heath Evans, Arizona Outlaws - 345/1, 366/1 - 42.9, 44.7 - diff: -1.8
- 8, 9 - 79, 81 - Peter Larson, Austin Copperheads - 359/0, 316/2 - 35.9, 41.1 - diff: -5.2
- 9, 5 - 80, 73 - Rainier Wolfcastle, New Orleans Second Line - 277/0, 315/2 - 31, 47.3 - diff: -16.3
- 10, 7 - 81, 76 - James Lewandowski, Baltimor Hawks - 310/0, 340/2 - 31, 43.4 - diff: -12.4
- 11, 8 - 83, 78 - Daniel George, Orange County Otters - 290/0, 310/2 - 29.3, 42.2 - diff: -12.9
- 12, 12 - 84, 87 - Clark Boyd, Sarasota Sailfish - 227/1, 248/1 - 28.9, 31.4 - diff: -2.5
- 13, 14 - 86, 91 - Donatello Arrabiata, Philadelphia Liberty - 200/1, 198/1 - 26.3, 26.4 - diff: -0.1
- 14, 13 - 89, 90 - Von Hayes, Chicago Butchers - 207/0, 224/1 - 20.9, 27.5 - diff: -6.6
- 15, 15 - 95, 94 - Tree Gelbman, Chicago Butchers - 164/0, 173/1 - 16.4, 22.5 - diff: -6.1
James Angler, the rookie out of Sarasota is the one who is supposed to be second going by average, but he massively lacks in scores. He only found the endzone once the whole season. He has to improve that to tackle the second place amongst TE. McDavid overperforms by far, with already getting some scores and more yardage as expected. He seems to be the big target Jack is looking for in his first season. Earl Sauce is the last TE exceed his average, he does slightly better than what you could expect from him. The other TE don’t live up to their expectations. Heath Evans gets robbed by his wideout teammates it seems, as those rack up crazy numbers. Larson is underachieving a bit, but it’s not in a range you have to worry about. Wolfcastle, Lewandowski and George on the other side need to find their groove to rise up the rankings. They all are underperforming, most notably in finding the endzone. Clark Boyd and Donatello Arrabiata are close to what you can expect from them. In fact, Arrabiata is the definition at playing at a level you can expect, with being only 0.1 pts off average. The two Chicago TE have a rough time for now, they are slightly underperforming, by struggling to put up big numbers.
Kickers
I don’t include in depth kicking stats here, sorry. If someone wants to know the projected ones
The list consists of various numbers, here the explanation for it:
real position place, average position place - real overall place, average overall place - Name, Team - real FF pts, avg FF pts - diff
- 1, 4 - 29, 46 - Silver Banana, Colorado Yeti - 109, 90.5 - diff: +18.5
- 2, 1 - 31, 42 - Dougie Smalls, Yellowknife Wraiths - 108, 94.8 - diff: +13.2
- 3, 2 - 38, 44 - Alex D., Orange County Otters - 100, 92.9 - diff: +7.1
- 4, 7 - 44, 54 - Jay Jay-Jaymison, Arizona Outlaws - 92, 81.1 - diff: +10.9
- 5, 5 - 47, 49 - Herbert Prohaska, New Orleans Second Line - 88, 86.7 - diff: +1.3
- 6, 12 - 49, 62 - Matthew McDairmid, San Jose Sabercats - 85, 70.3 - diff: +18.5
- 7, 6 - 50, 53 - ForThe Brand, Baltimore Hawks - 83, 81.1 - diff: +1.9
- 8, 3 - 56, 45 - Alfredo Crisco, Austin Copperheads - 78, 92.7 - diff: -14.7
- 9, 8 - 57, 56 - Lefty Louis, Philadelphia Liberty - 78, 80.6 - diff: -2.6
- 10, 11 - 58, 61 - Sam Sidekick, Chicago Butchers - 77, 70.5 - diff: +6.5
- 11, 9 - 64, 57 - Jacob Small, Sarasota Sailfish - 60, 79.4 - diff: -19.4
- 12, 10 - 70, 58 - Venus Powers, Honolulu Hahalua - 47, 77.5 - diff: -28.5
The current leader is Silver Banana. He is 1 point ahead of Smalls, which is equal to 1 XP. Smalls is supposed to lead the pack in a close race, but those two set a bit of a distance between them and the third place. Alex D. sits at 100 points and is overachieving like the rest of the top 7. All of them scored more than what was expected from them, some by more than others. The only kicker that averages on the same place as he currently is, is Fußballgott Herbert Prohaska at the 5th position. He is also the player who came closest to his average at 1.9. Jay-Jamison is one place ahead of him, taking advantage of the high powering Outlaws offense. Matty McDairmid and ForThe Brand complete the top 7. McDairmid is scoring field goals this season, after the surprisingly strong Sabercats somehow didn’t really score such last season. The rest of the ranking is from those players, who don’t get as much chances to score as expected, except for Sam Sidekick from Chicago.
Alfredo Crisco is expected to be in the hunt for the first place, but due to a lack of FG opportunities, he misses out on valuable points for him. Lefty Louis from Philadelphia is almost were to expect him, but the last two places are those who suffer the most from the lack of field goals. Small and Powers are at 19 and 28 points under average, which seems to be a lack of scoring opportunities.
I didn’t do the Defense calculations, as I missed some players there too, which would have made the output inaccurate.
Finally, the top 5 performers and top 5 underachiever. It has to be noted that 3 of 5 underachiever are from the Honolulu Hahalua. The top performer doesn’t really make up for that, as the following team ranking shows.
Top 5 Performer
- 1. Keʻokeʻo Kāne-Maikaʻi +30,6
- 2. Jay Cue +27.3
- 3. Net Gaines +23.32
- 4. Jeffrey Phillips +21.6
- 5. Leon McDavid +19.2
- 1. Mako Mendonca -43.9
- 2. Corvo Havran -28.8
- 3. Venus Powers -28.6
- 4. Jacoby Clay -28.23
- 5. Wolfie McDummy -25
- 1. Arizona Outlaws
54.3 - 2. San Jose Sabercats
22.1 - 3. Yellowknife Wraiths
14.7 - 4. Philadelphia Liberty
7.5 - 5. New Orleans Second Line
4.3 - 6. Orange County Otters
0.2 - 7. Baltimore Hawks
-13.1 - 8. Austin Copperheads
-51.4 - 9. Chicago Butchers
-67 - 10. Sarasota Sailfish
-67.7 - 11. Colorado Yeti
-71 - 12. Honolulu Hahalua
-83.1
On the one side it’s good, if you are a top performer or the best performing team. On the other side, you are kind of lucky because the sim chose you to overperform. On the bottom it’s sad that you are so low, but again, the sim chose you to perform that way. It seems to be some kind of luck indicator, as the averages sum up of how a player will perform in average in a game. But of course, only one game is picked in the end.
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