Good news, everyone! It's that time again. The CRUNC rating system has been dusted off and retooled for a new season. I know that certain power ranking posts have proved controversial recently, so I felt it was only right to bring back CRUNC, the one system that unites us all and absolutely nobody ever disagrees with. I'm definitely risking accusations of homerism here, but whatever, these are the numbers. Listen to me and make good stock investments (is the stock market still a thing?) or don't. It's up to you.
I've talked to enough people about how this is put together, but a few things to note for the uninitiated:
Also, I have some new stuff in this:
1)
Colorado Yeti || 6-1, 3-0 Home || OFF Rank: 1, DEF Rank: 5 || Sim Luck Rating: ++ || CRUNC Rating: 84.9
Strength of conference might have something to do with Colorado landing the number one spot here - my numbers indicate that there are three great teams in the league this season, and the other two are both in the ASFC. In fact, this years unbalanced scheduling means that the Yeti won't play either of those teams during the regular season at all. That helps them. Even so, Colorado are slightly above where they should be for win totals - five wins is where I have them currently, so they are credited with some sim luck, but nothing sim-breaking.
Though the Yeti are currently first in the league for points allowed, I believe their offense is the stronger unit on the team. I still have their defense rated well above average, but Colorado looks set to score at will against the majority of teams this season. Last season's Ultimus will be fresh in their mind - I still can't quite believe that San Jose took that one as such heavy underdogs - but Colorado look set to having a similar path through the playoffs as lack year. I don't think they are quite as good a team as they were then, primarily down to Wolfie regressing, but that's splitting hairs.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 14th
The Yeti have a pretty easy ride from here. They will face their toughest challenges in Weeks 12 and 14 when they face the Sarasota Sailfish and Yellowknife Wraiths in road games.
2)
Orange County Otters || 7-0, 4-0 Home || OFF Rank: 2, DEF Rank: 1 || Sim Luck Rating: +++ || CRUNC Rating: 75.3
The second of the three great teams I mentioned earlier, Orange County have their ranking dampened a bit by being in the ASFC. They are also the luckiest of the three, and I make them the team with the most sim luck in the league so far. Part of that is the methodology that I use - better teams will almost inevitably have more wins above expectation - but any team that goes undefeated will need a heavy dose of sim luck to get there. Orange County should probably be sitting at 5 wins at the moment, which is a respectable total through seven weeks.
Almost inevitably, this means that both offense and defense have been overperforming so far this season, but even then I have both units ranked very highly. The transition from Armstrong to Ramza at quarterback has been pretty seamless. Their defense is the better side of the ball, though. The Otters secondary averages 1087 TPE across the four positions, which is pretty insane for a position group, and more than compensates for any deficiencies in their defensive front. Obviously, with TPE totals that high, regression is looming, so this is probably the peak season for that unit. Will the Otters remain undefeated? Probably not, that's just the nature of sim football.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 13th
Orange County have a slightly more competitive schedule than the Yeti, with their toughest game looking like the New Orleans Second Line on the road in Week 10.
3)
Arizona Outlaws || 4-3, 3-1 Home || OFF Rank: 4, DEF Rank: 3 || Sim Luck Rating: - || CRUNC Rating: 70.9
The last of the top tier of teams, and definitely the one I'll take the most abuse for putting this high, is my Arizona Outlaws. The Outlaws have also been the unluckiest team of the three, they could easily have had 5 wins so far, and probably should have. My ratings only use data from games played, so it's probably safe to say the ratings and offensive rankings are probably a bit low for Arizona. Why? Well, after the expansion draft robbed the outlaws for their most promising running back prospect, the running back position was pretty much their biggest weakness, certainly the biggest weakness on offense. Enter future Hall of Famer Mathias Hanyadi, acquired from Yellowknife after Week 6. This trade improved Arizona instantly.
Another team with a good balance of offense and defense, the Outlaws have the highest TPE quarterback in the league in Jay Cue, and have a unit built around him to maximise his prime. I have their defense ranked third despite being forced to start a 350 TPE rookie at free safety. That is also pretty impressive. I'm eagerly awaiting the responses to this particular ranking, but the hell with it. Arizona are better than you think.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 10th
The Outlaws have the toughest schedule of the top three teams, with their hardest game coming in Week 13 on the road at Orange County.
4)
Sarasota Sailfish || 2-5, 2-1 Home || OFF Rank: 3, DEF Rank: 11 || Sim Luck Rating: -- || CRUNC Rating: 57.4
Another one for people to get nice and mad at. Yes, I know Sarasota are sitting joint last in the NSFC, and no, I don't care at all. A double minus on sim luck tells you everything you need to know about Sarasota this season. That missed PAT against the Otters to end the game pretty much summed up their season so far. There's no team whose players I feel worse for this season than the ones who wear the marlin on their shirts.
Underperformance doesn't begin to describe Sarasota's offense this season, and if you think this is down to the regression of Dexter Banks II, you are just wrong. This offense is still really good, despite the fact they are currently last in points scored. It will turn around for them. The Sarasota defense is the more problematic unit, with a lack of TPE at cornerback and along the defensive line, even though they've actually performed reasonably well so far this year. The Big Edd trade wasn't ideal for them in terms of winning right now, though the return they got could well prove worth it in the future. I hope Sarasota manages to turn it around.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 12th
Sarasota should be considered favourites for most of their remaining games, with their toughest challenge at Arizona in Week 9.
5)
Chicago Butchers || 4-3, 3-0 Home || OFF Rank: 6, DEF Rank: 7 || Sim Luck Rating: + || CRUNC Rating: 56.8
Well, the days of the Chicago Butchers being a joke are long gone. Chicago were good for that win against Colorado in Week 2, a sentence that would have seemed insane to type a couple of seasons ago. I've given them a single plus of overall sim luck, but I can't really begrudge this team sitting at four wins. A little bit of fortune against Berlin in Week 3 was balanced out by their Week 7 loss to Philadelphia. The rebuild is definitely working.
Although their only player over 1000 TPE is Sean O'Leary, the Butchers have a pretty nice spread of TPE across their team, which is reflected in their offensive and defensive rankings that put them both above league average. This balance causes the team to add up to more than the sum of its parts. Their offense has underperformed so far this season, but their defense has picked up the slack admirably. O'Donnell is the fourth highest TPE quarterback in the league, which definitely helps them going forward. Prior to last season it was a long time since Chicago made the playoffs, but that was no fluke. I fully expect the knifey meat men to reach the postseason this year.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 11th
Chicago have a fairly light schedule the rest of the way, with the notable exception of Colorado, who they face on the road in Week 13.
6)
Yellowknife Wraiths || 4-3, 3-0 Home || OFF Rank: 5, DEF Rank: 12 || Sim Luck Rating: + || CRUNC Rating: 55.9
The Yellowknife Wraiths aren't quite the team that made the Ultimus for so many consecutive seasons, but they aren't too far off. Again, I have them slightly favoured by sim luck, but not in a significant way. Four wins is the high end of my expected range for this team through seven games. The Wraiths are a better team than the Liberty, but overcoming home advantage to beat Philadelphia in Week 6 took a bit of good fortune.
I rate the Wraiths offense pretty highly, and they have played up to that so far, though trading Hanyadi to the Arizona Outlaws for offensive lineman Bruce Buckley won't help them much on that side of the ball. Their defense has played really well so far this year, though I rate them much lower than that. Starting a rookie corner hurts the unit, and I expect a bit of a drop off from them for the rest of the season. The retirement of starting defensive tackle Sheed Thebaw, their fourth round pick in a deep Season 25 draft, won't have done them many favours in the long term. Last year, the Wraiths lost out on a playoff place to the Butchers through some bad sim luck, and it looks like the reverse could happen this year as the Sailfish struggle.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 5th
Yellowknife have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. Their easiest game should be when they host the Philadelphia Liberty in Week 12.
7)
New Orleans Second Line || 3-4, 3-1 Home || OFF Rank: 8, DEF Rank: 6 || Sim Luck Rating: - || CRUNC Rating: 49.1
The Second Line are as close to a league average team as I can find. Apart from their Week 3 loss to the SaberCats, most of their games have played out the right way, so a minus for sim luck reflects that. I would put them solidly in the three to four win range at this point of the season.
It's easy to be blinded by all the high TPE values when you look at the New Orleans roster, but what they lack is quality depth across all positions. I have their defense rated slightly better than their offense, but both are more or less average for the league. Their defensive unit have shipped way more points than I would expect this year, so I expect to see that improve over the remainder of the season. I think that New Orleans have a decent shot at the playoffs from where they are now, but it will require a fair amount of sim luck to take them deep in the postseason.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 2nd
The Second Line have a tough run of games over the next few weeks, then it's about league average the rest of the way. It won't be an easy ride for NOLA.
8)
Honolulu Hahalua || 3-4, 2-3 Home || OFF Rank: 7, DEF Rank: 4 || Sim Luck Rating: - || CRUNC Rating: 47.9
Look, my fishy friends! You're not last! It's almost hard to conceive, but Honolulu have had a bit of bad luck so far this season. Their home losses to Baltimore and Orange County were pretty rough, though they had some fortune against San Jose in week 4. Overall, they're sitting at the low end of the 3-4 win range that is about right for this team.
Though they have scored the most points in the league, that was down to a freak 55 point performance against NOLA and I actually rank their defense as the better unit. They are among the best in the league, even though they have underperformed a bit. Even though they don't have the most TPE, they are a team that will improve for a couple of seasons, and they are definitely making it work for them right now. The trade for Big Edd should improve them going forward.
I just noticed, I seem to have both units ranked higher than New Orleans, yet Honolulu ranked lower. Maybe my spreadsheet is inherently biased against flatfish, I'm not sure. For what it's worth, I would probably bump Honolulu up a spot based on the eye test, but I stay true to my numbers. They tend to be right.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 3rd
Honolulu will need to take advantage of a few easier games in the coming weeks, as the games in the closing weeks of their season will be much tougher to get wins from.
9)
San Jose SaberCats || 4-3, 2-2 Home || OFF Rank: 12, DEF Rank: 2 || Sim Luck Rating: + || CRUNC Rating: 42.4
You've got to hand it to the reigning champions, they are great at sticking it to my ranking system, and the laws of probability in general. I have them at the low end of the three to four win range, but four wins isn't ridiculous, so a single plus for sim luck is about right. The four wins they got probably aren't the four wins they should have, but like I say, probability is a mere inconvenience to the SaberCats.
I was actually shocked by the unit rankings here. The old "offense sells tickets, defense wins championships" thing seems pretty relevant, as this SaberCats defense is real. Although they have scored and conceded the same number of points, I see this as a combination of offensive overperformance and defensive underperformance, which I expect to correct itself, should the SaberCats decide to conform to statistics. Looking at their TPE, I can't really find a reason why the SaberCats' defense would be placed this high by my rankings, but whatever. Good luck to them, not that they tend to need it. San Jose are in a better position to make the playoffs than the two division rivals ranked just above them.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 9th
San Jose have a pretty reasonable schedule for the rest of the season. Their toughest game looks like it will be in Week 12 at Arizona.
10)
New York Silverbacks || 0-7, 0-3 Home || OFF Rank: 10, DEF Rank: 9 || Sim Luck Rating: ---- || CRUNC Rating: 41.4
So I have New York rated with four minuses for sim luck. That pretty much sums up the inaugural season for the Silverbacks franchise. New York are a better team than this, and they should probably have three wins by now. Their home losses to Berlin and Austin can only be explained by the sim hating New York. Maybe the DDSPF developers went there once and got mugged on the subway. I don't know. Expansion teams are always going to have a rough first season or two, but this is really piling it on.
That's not to say that New York are a playoff quality team in my eyes, they aren't, and like I say, they're not meant to be at this stage of their development - even though they were widely seen as the expansion team who drafted more for a win-now approach. Sorry, that's rubbing it in a bit. I feel bad for everyone involved with New York, they deserve better than this. Looking at their roster, their top 5 earners are at DT, TE, RB, K and WR, which tends not to be the composition of a successful team, but yeah, expansion. New York will undoubtedly make the most of a high draft pick.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 8th
New York will have the best opportunity to finally pick up the win they deserve in Week 9 when they host the Philadelphia Liberty.
11)
Philadelphia Liberty || 3-4, 2-2 Home || OFF Rank: 9, DEF Rank: 10 || Sim Luck Rating: neutral || CRUNC Rating: 34.6
The Liberty have already matched their win total from last year, so that's definitely something. That was an unbelievably lucky season for Philadelphia, and they would probably have hoped for a bit of sim luck to go their way, but it isn't really. I have Philly at spot on three wins, and here they are. At least the sim stopped punishing them.
I've heard the Liberty defense mentioned as an area of weakness, but as far as I can tell they aren't that bad. Their defensive line situation is pretty dire, but they addressed this with a couple of outstanding prospects from the Season 25 draft class. They'll probably become an area of strength for this team in a few seasons, they're just not there yet. And the Philly offense, well, they're just not... good. Brock Phoenix is hitting his prime, and he doesn't have the team around him to achieve success. As the fifth best team in the NSFC, Philadelphia will be lucky to make the playoffs, and they'll need a ton of luck to overturn home advantage against their division rivals.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 4th
The Liberty are staring down a really difficult run of games. Any team can beat any other on any given day, but if they don't win until Week 13 when they host the Baltimore Hawks, I won't be surprised.
12)
Baltimore Hawks || 4-3, 1-1 Home || OFF Rank: 11, DEF Rank: 14 || Sim Luck Rating: ++ || CRUNC Rating: 30.5
Just wow. Baltimore have played five road games in the first seven and come out with a 4-3 record. The Hahalua, Sailfish and Fire Salamanders can all feel harshly done to with those home losses. Baltimore are the low end team with all the luck this year, so we will see how the season turns out for them. I'm not saying they won't make the playoffs, just that it would be very harsh on the other, better, NSFC teams if they did.
I just realised that my Outlaws are playing on the road at Baltimore on Monday, so I'm going to stop typing about them now. Sorry about that.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 7th
The only game that I'll feel comfortable picking Baltimore in for the rest of the season is in Week 14 when they host Berlin.
13)
Berlin Fire Salamanders || 2-5, 0-3 Home || OFF Rank: 13, DEF Rank: 13 || Sim Luck Rating: - || CRUNC Rating: 24.9
These last three teams are pretty much interchangeable in their positions, there isn't much between them. Berlin obviously come with the perfectly valid excuse that they are an expansion team, and the one that seemed to be drafting more for future success than to win games now. Well, they're a two to three win team in my eyes, so they are doing just fine.
Neither unit is particularly great at present, but they are stacked with young pieces who will do very well if they continue to earn and develop. If you invest in Berlin stock, you are definitely playing the long game.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 6th
I feel like Berlin's best chances to add to their victory total will be in Week 8 when they host San Jose and Week 15 when they host Philadelphia.
14)
Austin Copperheads || 3-4, 2-2 Home || OFF Rank: 14, DEF Rank: 8 || Sim Luck Rating: + || CRUNC Rating: 20.4
At risk of giving up some free heckin' real estate, my system put Austin at the bottom of my rankings, so that's where I'll list them. As I said previously, there's not much between the bottom three teams, but I still think Austin are slightly lucky to have three wins at this point, though they have dropped a couple of coinflip games at home. That said, if your home games are coinflips, you probably aren't the best team.
My system indicates this is an offensive issue, which isn't entirely surprising with Easton Cole regressing and Zoe Watts being a Season 24 running back. This doesn't feel like it will be a successful season for the perennial contenders.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 1st
Austin could well be 5-5 after Week 10. Their imminent game at Colorado aside, they have a great chance to add to their win total in the next few games. After Week 10 though, their schedule will get significantly tougher.
I've talked to enough people about how this is put together, but a few things to note for the uninitiated:
- These rankings have absolutely nothing to do with your teams win/loss record.
- These rankings are probably a better indicator of how good you are than your teams win/loss record. Some would disagree.
- My ratings are inherently dependent on past schedule difficulty, I haven't figured out a way around that yet.
- Is only a power ranking, why u heff to be mad?
Also, I have some new stuff in this:
- I've used my system to rank offenses and defenses.
- I've measured how much "sim luck" each team has received in their games and rated it with plus and minus symbols.
- I've measured each team's remaining schedule difficulty and assigned it a rank.
1)
Colorado Yeti || 6-1, 3-0 Home || OFF Rank: 1, DEF Rank: 5 || Sim Luck Rating: ++ || CRUNC Rating: 84.9Strength of conference might have something to do with Colorado landing the number one spot here - my numbers indicate that there are three great teams in the league this season, and the other two are both in the ASFC. In fact, this years unbalanced scheduling means that the Yeti won't play either of those teams during the regular season at all. That helps them. Even so, Colorado are slightly above where they should be for win totals - five wins is where I have them currently, so they are credited with some sim luck, but nothing sim-breaking.
Though the Yeti are currently first in the league for points allowed, I believe their offense is the stronger unit on the team. I still have their defense rated well above average, but Colorado looks set to score at will against the majority of teams this season. Last season's Ultimus will be fresh in their mind - I still can't quite believe that San Jose took that one as such heavy underdogs - but Colorado look set to having a similar path through the playoffs as lack year. I don't think they are quite as good a team as they were then, primarily down to Wolfie regressing, but that's splitting hairs.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 14th
The Yeti have a pretty easy ride from here. They will face their toughest challenges in Weeks 12 and 14 when they face the Sarasota Sailfish and Yellowknife Wraiths in road games.
2)
Orange County Otters || 7-0, 4-0 Home || OFF Rank: 2, DEF Rank: 1 || Sim Luck Rating: +++ || CRUNC Rating: 75.3The second of the three great teams I mentioned earlier, Orange County have their ranking dampened a bit by being in the ASFC. They are also the luckiest of the three, and I make them the team with the most sim luck in the league so far. Part of that is the methodology that I use - better teams will almost inevitably have more wins above expectation - but any team that goes undefeated will need a heavy dose of sim luck to get there. Orange County should probably be sitting at 5 wins at the moment, which is a respectable total through seven weeks.
Almost inevitably, this means that both offense and defense have been overperforming so far this season, but even then I have both units ranked very highly. The transition from Armstrong to Ramza at quarterback has been pretty seamless. Their defense is the better side of the ball, though. The Otters secondary averages 1087 TPE across the four positions, which is pretty insane for a position group, and more than compensates for any deficiencies in their defensive front. Obviously, with TPE totals that high, regression is looming, so this is probably the peak season for that unit. Will the Otters remain undefeated? Probably not, that's just the nature of sim football.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 13th
Orange County have a slightly more competitive schedule than the Yeti, with their toughest game looking like the New Orleans Second Line on the road in Week 10.
3)
Arizona Outlaws || 4-3, 3-1 Home || OFF Rank: 4, DEF Rank: 3 || Sim Luck Rating: - || CRUNC Rating: 70.9The last of the top tier of teams, and definitely the one I'll take the most abuse for putting this high, is my Arizona Outlaws. The Outlaws have also been the unluckiest team of the three, they could easily have had 5 wins so far, and probably should have. My ratings only use data from games played, so it's probably safe to say the ratings and offensive rankings are probably a bit low for Arizona. Why? Well, after the expansion draft robbed the outlaws for their most promising running back prospect, the running back position was pretty much their biggest weakness, certainly the biggest weakness on offense. Enter future Hall of Famer Mathias Hanyadi, acquired from Yellowknife after Week 6. This trade improved Arizona instantly.
Another team with a good balance of offense and defense, the Outlaws have the highest TPE quarterback in the league in Jay Cue, and have a unit built around him to maximise his prime. I have their defense ranked third despite being forced to start a 350 TPE rookie at free safety. That is also pretty impressive. I'm eagerly awaiting the responses to this particular ranking, but the hell with it. Arizona are better than you think.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 10th
The Outlaws have the toughest schedule of the top three teams, with their hardest game coming in Week 13 on the road at Orange County.
4)
Sarasota Sailfish || 2-5, 2-1 Home || OFF Rank: 3, DEF Rank: 11 || Sim Luck Rating: -- || CRUNC Rating: 57.4Another one for people to get nice and mad at. Yes, I know Sarasota are sitting joint last in the NSFC, and no, I don't care at all. A double minus on sim luck tells you everything you need to know about Sarasota this season. That missed PAT against the Otters to end the game pretty much summed up their season so far. There's no team whose players I feel worse for this season than the ones who wear the marlin on their shirts.
Underperformance doesn't begin to describe Sarasota's offense this season, and if you think this is down to the regression of Dexter Banks II, you are just wrong. This offense is still really good, despite the fact they are currently last in points scored. It will turn around for them. The Sarasota defense is the more problematic unit, with a lack of TPE at cornerback and along the defensive line, even though they've actually performed reasonably well so far this year. The Big Edd trade wasn't ideal for them in terms of winning right now, though the return they got could well prove worth it in the future. I hope Sarasota manages to turn it around.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 12th
Sarasota should be considered favourites for most of their remaining games, with their toughest challenge at Arizona in Week 9.
5)
Chicago Butchers || 4-3, 3-0 Home || OFF Rank: 6, DEF Rank: 7 || Sim Luck Rating: + || CRUNC Rating: 56.8Well, the days of the Chicago Butchers being a joke are long gone. Chicago were good for that win against Colorado in Week 2, a sentence that would have seemed insane to type a couple of seasons ago. I've given them a single plus of overall sim luck, but I can't really begrudge this team sitting at four wins. A little bit of fortune against Berlin in Week 3 was balanced out by their Week 7 loss to Philadelphia. The rebuild is definitely working.
Although their only player over 1000 TPE is Sean O'Leary, the Butchers have a pretty nice spread of TPE across their team, which is reflected in their offensive and defensive rankings that put them both above league average. This balance causes the team to add up to more than the sum of its parts. Their offense has underperformed so far this season, but their defense has picked up the slack admirably. O'Donnell is the fourth highest TPE quarterback in the league, which definitely helps them going forward. Prior to last season it was a long time since Chicago made the playoffs, but that was no fluke. I fully expect the knifey meat men to reach the postseason this year.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 11th
Chicago have a fairly light schedule the rest of the way, with the notable exception of Colorado, who they face on the road in Week 13.
6)
Yellowknife Wraiths || 4-3, 3-0 Home || OFF Rank: 5, DEF Rank: 12 || Sim Luck Rating: + || CRUNC Rating: 55.9The Yellowknife Wraiths aren't quite the team that made the Ultimus for so many consecutive seasons, but they aren't too far off. Again, I have them slightly favoured by sim luck, but not in a significant way. Four wins is the high end of my expected range for this team through seven games. The Wraiths are a better team than the Liberty, but overcoming home advantage to beat Philadelphia in Week 6 took a bit of good fortune.
I rate the Wraiths offense pretty highly, and they have played up to that so far, though trading Hanyadi to the Arizona Outlaws for offensive lineman Bruce Buckley won't help them much on that side of the ball. Their defense has played really well so far this year, though I rate them much lower than that. Starting a rookie corner hurts the unit, and I expect a bit of a drop off from them for the rest of the season. The retirement of starting defensive tackle Sheed Thebaw, their fourth round pick in a deep Season 25 draft, won't have done them many favours in the long term. Last year, the Wraiths lost out on a playoff place to the Butchers through some bad sim luck, and it looks like the reverse could happen this year as the Sailfish struggle.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 5th
Yellowknife have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. Their easiest game should be when they host the Philadelphia Liberty in Week 12.
7)
New Orleans Second Line || 3-4, 3-1 Home || OFF Rank: 8, DEF Rank: 6 || Sim Luck Rating: - || CRUNC Rating: 49.1The Second Line are as close to a league average team as I can find. Apart from their Week 3 loss to the SaberCats, most of their games have played out the right way, so a minus for sim luck reflects that. I would put them solidly in the three to four win range at this point of the season.
It's easy to be blinded by all the high TPE values when you look at the New Orleans roster, but what they lack is quality depth across all positions. I have their defense rated slightly better than their offense, but both are more or less average for the league. Their defensive unit have shipped way more points than I would expect this year, so I expect to see that improve over the remainder of the season. I think that New Orleans have a decent shot at the playoffs from where they are now, but it will require a fair amount of sim luck to take them deep in the postseason.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 2nd
The Second Line have a tough run of games over the next few weeks, then it's about league average the rest of the way. It won't be an easy ride for NOLA.
8)
Honolulu Hahalua || 3-4, 2-3 Home || OFF Rank: 7, DEF Rank: 4 || Sim Luck Rating: - || CRUNC Rating: 47.9Look, my fishy friends! You're not last! It's almost hard to conceive, but Honolulu have had a bit of bad luck so far this season. Their home losses to Baltimore and Orange County were pretty rough, though they had some fortune against San Jose in week 4. Overall, they're sitting at the low end of the 3-4 win range that is about right for this team.
Though they have scored the most points in the league, that was down to a freak 55 point performance against NOLA and I actually rank their defense as the better unit. They are among the best in the league, even though they have underperformed a bit. Even though they don't have the most TPE, they are a team that will improve for a couple of seasons, and they are definitely making it work for them right now. The trade for Big Edd should improve them going forward.
I just noticed, I seem to have both units ranked higher than New Orleans, yet Honolulu ranked lower. Maybe my spreadsheet is inherently biased against flatfish, I'm not sure. For what it's worth, I would probably bump Honolulu up a spot based on the eye test, but I stay true to my numbers. They tend to be right.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 3rd
Honolulu will need to take advantage of a few easier games in the coming weeks, as the games in the closing weeks of their season will be much tougher to get wins from.
9)
San Jose SaberCats || 4-3, 2-2 Home || OFF Rank: 12, DEF Rank: 2 || Sim Luck Rating: + || CRUNC Rating: 42.4You've got to hand it to the reigning champions, they are great at sticking it to my ranking system, and the laws of probability in general. I have them at the low end of the three to four win range, but four wins isn't ridiculous, so a single plus for sim luck is about right. The four wins they got probably aren't the four wins they should have, but like I say, probability is a mere inconvenience to the SaberCats.
I was actually shocked by the unit rankings here. The old "offense sells tickets, defense wins championships" thing seems pretty relevant, as this SaberCats defense is real. Although they have scored and conceded the same number of points, I see this as a combination of offensive overperformance and defensive underperformance, which I expect to correct itself, should the SaberCats decide to conform to statistics. Looking at their TPE, I can't really find a reason why the SaberCats' defense would be placed this high by my rankings, but whatever. Good luck to them, not that they tend to need it. San Jose are in a better position to make the playoffs than the two division rivals ranked just above them.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 9th
San Jose have a pretty reasonable schedule for the rest of the season. Their toughest game looks like it will be in Week 12 at Arizona.
10)
New York Silverbacks || 0-7, 0-3 Home || OFF Rank: 10, DEF Rank: 9 || Sim Luck Rating: ---- || CRUNC Rating: 41.4So I have New York rated with four minuses for sim luck. That pretty much sums up the inaugural season for the Silverbacks franchise. New York are a better team than this, and they should probably have three wins by now. Their home losses to Berlin and Austin can only be explained by the sim hating New York. Maybe the DDSPF developers went there once and got mugged on the subway. I don't know. Expansion teams are always going to have a rough first season or two, but this is really piling it on.
That's not to say that New York are a playoff quality team in my eyes, they aren't, and like I say, they're not meant to be at this stage of their development - even though they were widely seen as the expansion team who drafted more for a win-now approach. Sorry, that's rubbing it in a bit. I feel bad for everyone involved with New York, they deserve better than this. Looking at their roster, their top 5 earners are at DT, TE, RB, K and WR, which tends not to be the composition of a successful team, but yeah, expansion. New York will undoubtedly make the most of a high draft pick.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 8th
New York will have the best opportunity to finally pick up the win they deserve in Week 9 when they host the Philadelphia Liberty.
11)
Philadelphia Liberty || 3-4, 2-2 Home || OFF Rank: 9, DEF Rank: 10 || Sim Luck Rating: neutral || CRUNC Rating: 34.6The Liberty have already matched their win total from last year, so that's definitely something. That was an unbelievably lucky season for Philadelphia, and they would probably have hoped for a bit of sim luck to go their way, but it isn't really. I have Philly at spot on three wins, and here they are. At least the sim stopped punishing them.
I've heard the Liberty defense mentioned as an area of weakness, but as far as I can tell they aren't that bad. Their defensive line situation is pretty dire, but they addressed this with a couple of outstanding prospects from the Season 25 draft class. They'll probably become an area of strength for this team in a few seasons, they're just not there yet. And the Philly offense, well, they're just not... good. Brock Phoenix is hitting his prime, and he doesn't have the team around him to achieve success. As the fifth best team in the NSFC, Philadelphia will be lucky to make the playoffs, and they'll need a ton of luck to overturn home advantage against their division rivals.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 4th
The Liberty are staring down a really difficult run of games. Any team can beat any other on any given day, but if they don't win until Week 13 when they host the Baltimore Hawks, I won't be surprised.
12)
Baltimore Hawks || 4-3, 1-1 Home || OFF Rank: 11, DEF Rank: 14 || Sim Luck Rating: ++ || CRUNC Rating: 30.5Just wow. Baltimore have played five road games in the first seven and come out with a 4-3 record. The Hahalua, Sailfish and Fire Salamanders can all feel harshly done to with those home losses. Baltimore are the low end team with all the luck this year, so we will see how the season turns out for them. I'm not saying they won't make the playoffs, just that it would be very harsh on the other, better, NSFC teams if they did.
I just realised that my Outlaws are playing on the road at Baltimore on Monday, so I'm going to stop typing about them now. Sorry about that.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 7th
The only game that I'll feel comfortable picking Baltimore in for the rest of the season is in Week 14 when they host Berlin.
13)
Berlin Fire Salamanders || 2-5, 0-3 Home || OFF Rank: 13, DEF Rank: 13 || Sim Luck Rating: - || CRUNC Rating: 24.9These last three teams are pretty much interchangeable in their positions, there isn't much between them. Berlin obviously come with the perfectly valid excuse that they are an expansion team, and the one that seemed to be drafting more for future success than to win games now. Well, they're a two to three win team in my eyes, so they are doing just fine.
Neither unit is particularly great at present, but they are stacked with young pieces who will do very well if they continue to earn and develop. If you invest in Berlin stock, you are definitely playing the long game.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 6th
I feel like Berlin's best chances to add to their victory total will be in Week 8 when they host San Jose and Week 15 when they host Philadelphia.
14)
Austin Copperheads || 3-4, 2-2 Home || OFF Rank: 14, DEF Rank: 8 || Sim Luck Rating: + || CRUNC Rating: 20.4At risk of giving up some free heckin' real estate, my system put Austin at the bottom of my rankings, so that's where I'll list them. As I said previously, there's not much between the bottom three teams, but I still think Austin are slightly lucky to have three wins at this point, though they have dropped a couple of coinflip games at home. That said, if your home games are coinflips, you probably aren't the best team.
My system indicates this is an offensive issue, which isn't entirely surprising with Easton Cole regressing and Zoe Watts being a Season 24 running back. This doesn't feel like it will be a successful season for the perennial contenders.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: 1st
Austin could well be 5-5 after Week 10. Their imminent game at Colorado aside, they have a great chance to add to their win total in the next few games. After Week 10 though, their schedule will get significantly tougher.
![[Image: kZQaK3s.png]](https://i.imgur.com/kZQaK3s.png)
![[Image: mK4dAxg.png]](https://i.imgur.com/mK4dAxg.png)
![[Image: E469-D8-C1-A346-4-D3-A-B012-58-B38-ECC09-C4.jpg]](https://i.postimg.cc/k4Dj6TQj/E469-D8-C1-A346-4-D3-A-B012-58-B38-ECC09-C4.jpg)
![[Image: cwAUFYO.png]](https://i.imgur.com/cwAUFYO.png)
![[Image: jZiqO11.png]](https://i.imgur.com/jZiqO11.png)
![[Image: 49rZtUA.png]](https://i.imgur.com/49rZtUA.png)
![[Image: FrostKnight.png?width=1248&height=676]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/722897180280619130/876259042392154132/FrostKnight.png?width=1248&height=676)
![[Image: 9nvMhRb]](https://imgur.com/a/9nvMhRb)
![[Image: kNvmTU0.png]](https://i.imgur.com/kNvmTU0.png)
![[Image: 62493_s.gif]](https://signavatar.com/62493_s.gif)
![[Image: IhEScbX.png]](https://i.imgur.com/IhEScbX.png)
![[Image: giphy.gif?cid=6c09b9525cklw8g5toih6brpb1...=giphy.gif]](https://media0.giphy.com/media/l0ErWnkLjegNB5LlC/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b9525cklw8g5toih6brpb18nwyahyrsv5zj2nf6qrze6&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif)
![[Image: 002p.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/YqxHKpBC/002p.png)
![[Image: GlimsTC.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/GlimsTC.gif)
![[Image: 60801_s.gif]](https://signavatar.com/60801_s.gif)
![[Image: inYqXn7.png]](https://i.imgur.com/inYqXn7.png)
