It's been a while since I've written the last edition of this article series. Since then, weeks 8, 9, 10, and 11 are in the books - so there should be a lot of movement in the stock market to catch up on! Let's start with the team-by-team analysis of where each stock is right now and how it's changed over the past 4 game weeks (9+ days of real time).
Current Price: $1,171,727
Price Change: +$13,947 (+1.2%)
Shares Owned: 18
Ownership Change: -27
On-Field Performances: 1-3 (W vs SJS; L vs AUS, @ ARI, YKW)
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG SELL)
Current Price: $1,044,725
Price Change: -$29,305 (-2.7%)
Shares Owned: 56
Ownership Change: -49
On-Field Performances: 4-0 (W vs. NOLA, BER, AUS, @ HON)
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
Current Price: $954,262
Price Change: +$820 (+0.1%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 3-1 (W vs SJS, CHI, BAL; L @ NOLA)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
Current Price: $1,147,530
Price Change: +$1,537 (+0.1%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs HON, PHI; L @ OCO, YKW)
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
Current Price: $757,520
Price Change: +$79,961 (+11.8%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +225
On-Field Performances: 1-3 (W @ SAR; L vs ARI, @ NYS, CHI)
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG SELL)
Current Price: $1,121,250
Price Change: +$10,917 (+1.0%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: -10
On-Field Performances: 3-1 (W vs CHI, ARI, @ BER; L @ AUS)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
Current Price: $852,316
Price Change: -$30,642 (-3.5%)
Shares Owned: 71
Ownership Change: -184
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs YKW, @ HON; L vs NYS, @ COL)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
Current Price: $762,708
Price Change: +$687 (+0.1%)
Shares Owned: 70
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W @ BAL, vs. OCO; L vs BER, @ COL)
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
Current Price: $856,688
Price Change: +$635 (+0.1%)
Shares Owned: 62
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs SAR, @ NYS; L @ YKW, BAL)
Advice: SELL (Unchanged)
Current Price: $866,467
Price Change: -$5,378 (-0.6%)
Shares Owned: 50
Ownership Change: -72
On-Field Performances: 3-1 (W vs BAL, @ PHI, HON; L @ OCO)
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
Current Price: $681,822
Price Change: -$11,858 (-1.7%)
Shares Owned: 166
Ownership Change: -84
On-Field Performances: 0-4 (L vs COL, ARI, NOLA, @ CHI)
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG BUY)
Current Price: $1,011,717
Price Change: +$2,157 (+0.2%)
Shares Owned: 115
Ownership Change: -1
On-Field Performances: 1-3 (W vs NYS, L vs PHI; @ SJS, @ BER)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
Current Price: $838,442
Price Change: +$8,925 (+1.1%)
Shares Owned: 239
Ownership Change: -11
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs SAR, @ AUS; L vs OCO, @ COL)
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG BUY)
Current Price: $832,653
Price Change: +$31,941 (+4.0%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs PHI, @ NOLA; L vs SJS, @ SAR)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
STRONG BUY
n/a
BUY
n/a
HOLD
n/a
SELL
( - - - )
( - - - )
( - - )
( - - )
( - - )
( - - )
( - - )
( - )
( - )
( - )
( - )
( + )
( + )
STRONG SELL
n/a
User @wonderful_art , who processed all casino transactions and was in charge of updating stock market prices, was last seen on the forums on December 14th, exactly one week ago as of this writing. I sincerely hope that everything is alright with him and that he is just taking some time away from the league to go on a nice holiday vacation or something. Since then, the rest of the Casino team has had to fill in for him and there have been some changes. I am unclear whether the formula has changed or just something else has gone on, but the movement of stock prices has nearly completely halted with a few exceptions.
Over the past 4 weeks, only one stock has seen a movement of 10 percentage points or more - the Liberty, who saw a massive coordinated stock buyout increasing share ownership from 25 to 250. In contrast, earlier in the season when Art was handling the stock market, over the comparable timeframe between weeks 1 and 5, nine stocks moved that much. Meanwhile, eight teams have seen their stock price move less than 2% over the past 4 weeks - between weeks 1 and 5, no stock moved that little (the smallest movement was the Wraiths at +2.1%).
Just look at this graph of stock prices over time that I have been tracking, updated after week 10 (over the weekend) and after week 11 (last night):
![[Image: 8NWLOBo.png]](https://i.imgur.com/8NWLOBo.png)
Look at the sharp right turn almost every stock makes. Baltimore is especially striking - after falling at least 5% per week (more often 8-10) for the first 7 weeks of the season, the stock has abruptly stopped its downward fall and held steady, even gaining value slightly. Under my previous understanding of the formula, there was absolutely no reason for it to do this - Baltimore has continued to lose most of its games, dropping its Elo score, and it is not an especially highly owned stock and has seen no growth of ownership.
I am sure it has been very difficult for the Casino team to deal with the disappearance of such an incredible user as Art who played such a vital role in the stock market operation. And I definitely don't mean to disparage anyone on the Casino team at all, I think they have done a commendable job to continue processing stock purchases and sales and approving user auctions in a timely manner. However, if the casino workings are fragile enough that one user makes the difference between things working as intended and breaking completely, I have personally lost faith and interest in investing in the stock market. I'm using this article series as a platform to draw attention to the issues I've seen, and warn people of what I think is an issue that warrants caution in spending money on buying stock.
Team-by-Team Breakdown
BALTIMORE HAWKS
3-8
3-8
Current Price: $1,171,727
Price Change: +$13,947 (+1.2%)
Shares Owned: 18
Ownership Change: -27
On-Field Performances: 1-3 (W vs SJS; L vs AUS, @ ARI, YKW)
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG SELL)
COLORADO YETI
7-4
7-4
Current Price: $1,044,725
Price Change: -$29,305 (-2.7%)
Shares Owned: 56
Ownership Change: -49
On-Field Performances: 4-0 (W vs. NOLA, BER, AUS, @ HON)
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
YELLOWKNIFE WRAITHS
9-2
9-2
Current Price: $954,262
Price Change: +$820 (+0.1%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 3-1 (W vs SJS, CHI, BAL; L @ NOLA)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
CHICAGO BUTCHERS
7-4
7-4
Current Price: $1,147,530
Price Change: +$1,537 (+0.1%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs HON, PHI; L @ OCO, YKW)
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY
3-8
3-8
Current Price: $757,520
Price Change: +$79,961 (+11.8%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +225
On-Field Performances: 1-3 (W @ SAR; L vs ARI, @ NYS, CHI)
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG SELL)
ORANGE COUNTY OTTERS
8-3
8-3
Current Price: $1,121,250
Price Change: +$10,917 (+1.0%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: -10
On-Field Performances: 3-1 (W vs CHI, ARI, @ BER; L @ AUS)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
NEW ORLEANS SECOND LINE
7-4
7-4
Current Price: $852,316
Price Change: -$30,642 (-3.5%)
Shares Owned: 71
Ownership Change: -184
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs YKW, @ HON; L vs NYS, @ COL)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
AUSTIN COPPERHEADS
7-4
7-4
Current Price: $762,708
Price Change: +$687 (+0.1%)
Shares Owned: 70
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W @ BAL, vs. OCO; L vs BER, @ COL)
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
SAN JOSE SABERCATS
5-6
5-6
Current Price: $856,688
Price Change: +$635 (+0.1%)
Shares Owned: 62
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs SAR, @ NYS; L @ YKW, BAL)
Advice: SELL (Unchanged)
ARIZONA OUTLAWS
5-6
5-6
Current Price: $866,467
Price Change: -$5,378 (-0.6%)
Shares Owned: 50
Ownership Change: -72
On-Field Performances: 3-1 (W vs BAL, @ PHI, HON; L @ OCO)
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
HONOLULU HAHALUA
1-10
1-10
Current Price: $681,822
Price Change: -$11,858 (-1.7%)
Shares Owned: 166
Ownership Change: -84
On-Field Performances: 0-4 (L vs COL, ARI, NOLA, @ CHI)
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG BUY)
SARASOTA SAILFISH
6-4
6-4
Current Price: $1,011,717
Price Change: +$2,157 (+0.2%)
Shares Owned: 115
Ownership Change: -1
On-Field Performances: 1-3 (W vs NYS, L vs PHI; @ SJS, @ BER)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
BERLIN FIRE SALAMANDERS
4-7
4-7
Current Price: $838,442
Price Change: +$8,925 (+1.1%)
Shares Owned: 239
Ownership Change: -11
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs SAR, @ AUS; L vs OCO, @ COL)
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG BUY)
NEW YORK SILVERBACKS
5-6
5-6
Current Price: $832,653
Price Change: +$31,941 (+4.0%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: 2-2 (W vs PHI, @ NOLA; L vs SJS, @ SAR)
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
Summary
STRONG BUY
n/a
BUY
n/a
HOLD
n/a
SELL
( - - - ) ( - - - ) ( - - ) ( - - ) ( - - ) ( - - ) ( - - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( + ) ( + )STRONG SELL
n/a
Analysis
User @
Over the past 4 weeks, only one stock has seen a movement of 10 percentage points or more - the Liberty, who saw a massive coordinated stock buyout increasing share ownership from 25 to 250. In contrast, earlier in the season when Art was handling the stock market, over the comparable timeframe between weeks 1 and 5, nine stocks moved that much. Meanwhile, eight teams have seen their stock price move less than 2% over the past 4 weeks - between weeks 1 and 5, no stock moved that little (the smallest movement was the Wraiths at +2.1%).
Just look at this graph of stock prices over time that I have been tracking, updated after week 10 (over the weekend) and after week 11 (last night):
Look at the sharp right turn almost every stock makes. Baltimore is especially striking - after falling at least 5% per week (more often 8-10) for the first 7 weeks of the season, the stock has abruptly stopped its downward fall and held steady, even gaining value slightly. Under my previous understanding of the formula, there was absolutely no reason for it to do this - Baltimore has continued to lose most of its games, dropping its Elo score, and it is not an especially highly owned stock and has seen no growth of ownership.
I am sure it has been very difficult for the Casino team to deal with the disappearance of such an incredible user as Art who played such a vital role in the stock market operation. And I definitely don't mean to disparage anyone on the Casino team at all, I think they have done a commendable job to continue processing stock purchases and sales and approving user auctions in a timely manner. However, if the casino workings are fragile enough that one user makes the difference between things working as intended and breaking completely, I have personally lost faith and interest in investing in the stock market. I'm using this article series as a platform to draw attention to the issues I've seen, and warn people of what I think is an issue that warrants caution in spending money on buying stock.
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![[Image: Luy1SZR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/Luy1SZR.png)
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