What The Hell Is Happening In Colorado?
If you took a league-wide poll asking every single active player which team they thought was the unluckiest this season, you would come up with 3 very distinctive answers. First on the list would likely be the Chicago Butchers, for a few obvious reasons. Those being the 60-something yard field goal that made them lose against the San Jose Sabercats, the last second loss to the Sarasota Sailfish, the last second loss to the Arizona Outlaws, the last second loss to the Yellowknife Wraiths, and the VERY last second loss to the Philadelphia Liberty. Add all that to the fact that by their TPE count they should be one of the best teams in the league as opposed to one of the worst, and I’d say they have a pretty solid hold on the number 1 unluckiest spot. Coming in at number 2 we’d likely have the Honolulu Hahalua. From one of the best teams in the league last year to one of the worst, or at best mediocre, and an almost complete inability to generate even a single turnover all season, You’d have a good reason to choose the Hahalua as an extremely unlucky team. I would like to propose a third choice for that spot, the Colorado Yeti. Two in-game weeks ago I watched as the Yeti went from being up 30-17 with 3 minutes to go to manage to blow that lead in just under two and a half.
Where Is The Defense During Gametime?
Now if you had watched that game all the way through like I had you’ll have noticed an odd phenomenon start to rear its ugly head. Throughout the first 56:30 minutes of the game the Yeti defense seemed to be unmovable, the Sailfish had a negative drive almost as often as a positive one, but come crunch time they gave up almost the entire game's worth of yards on two touchdown plays. Then a week later in Chicago a similar thing happened. The Yeti defense played phenomenal, but come crunch time they allowed a 53 yard touchdown run to Baby Yoda to blow the lead. It was then I decided to check the numbers for the rest of the season, and answer a very simple question: If the Yeti could dominate almost every weekly stat sheet, why didn’t that translate into more wins? The answer to that question, or the process to get there at least, came in a very obscure statistical category: yards and points allowed on defensive drives when the Yeti held the lead. Now this on a basic level has a very obvious flaw, if the Yeti have a game where they lead and dominate the whole time, that would affect their stats against their favor. The second game against Baltimore for example, there wasn’t a single drive of defense where they didn’t hold the lead. There is only so much of a way to control for this so I can only point it out and hope it doesn’t affect the total numbers too much. I will leave each individual drive’s numbers from each game to allow for manual contextualization.
The Bad
So let’s break these numbers down.Throughout the course of the season the Yeti defense has had 86 drives where they’ve held the lead. Out of those 86 drives, 36 have ended in a score, rounding up that ends up at roughly 42%.
Within that 42%, 22% of those scores happened in the 4th quarter.
Now we all know that obviously touchdowns hold more weight than field goals when it comes to the game of football. So out of the 36 scoring drives, 18 have ended in touchdowns (50%). Out of those 18, a staggering 9(!) of those touchdowns happened in the 4th quarter of these games. So while the Yeti defense seems to hold the scoring to a minimum through the first 3 quarters, when they break, they break big in the 4th quarter, where mistakes can be deadly.
The Good
Now to really point out the shock of these numbers, we need to look into the much nicer numbers for the yeti defense. So out of the 86 drives in the list, how many ended allowing 10 yards or less? That would be 3 & outs. Well that number is 32. 32 drives where the Yeti defense forced a 3 & out. That’s 37%. Yeah, over ⅓ of drives with the lead end without a single first down being acquired. The Sailfish Yeti game in week 12 is especially bad, with 5/11 drives ending without a single first down being acquired. Every single analyst who knows football will tell you that that’s a recipe for an easy win. If a little under half of your defensive drives with the lead end without a single first down being acquired, you’d think that even a decent offense would be able to build up a big enough lead to allow for a slip or two on defense.
So, when you’re watching the games in a few hours tonight, pay attention to how the Yeti defense plays with the lead, in the clutch, because the numbers would tell you that that’s when they slip.
Pure Numbers
Game 1-Yellowknife
1st Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-65
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Game 2-Sarasota
3rd Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-65
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
Leading Drive 2:
YAL-19
Score?-N
TO?-N
4th Q
Leading Drive 3:
YAL-7
Score?-N
TO?-Y
Leading Drive 4:
YAL-26
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-Y
Game 3-Baltimore
1st Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-44
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
Leading Drive 2:
YAL-6
Score?-N
TO?-N
2nd Q
Leading Drive 3:
YAL-5
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 4:
YAL-2
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 5:
YAL-63
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
3rd Q
Leading Drive 6:
YAL-42
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
Leading Drive 7:
YAL- -7
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 8:
YAL-39
Score?-N
TO?-Y
Leading Drive 9:
YAL- -3
Score?-N
TO?-Y
4th Q
Leading Drive 10:
YAL-71
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Leading Drive 11:
YAL-27
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 12:
YAL-75
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Game 4-Chicago
1st Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-50
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 2:
YAL-2
Score?-N
TO?-Y
Leading Drive 3:
YAL-41
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
2nd Q
Leading Drive 4:
YAL-44
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
Leading Drive 5:
YAL-6
Score?-N
TO?-N
3rd Q
Leading Drive 6:
YAL-75
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Leading Drive 7:
YAL-0
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 8:
YAL-27
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
4th Q
Leading Drive 9:
YAL-0
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 10:
YAL-44
Score?-N
TO?-N
Game 5-New Orleans
1st Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-9
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 2:
YAL-55
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
2nd Q
Leading Drive 3:
YAL-1
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 4:
YAL-58
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
3rd Q
Leading Drive 5:
YAL-62
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Leading Drive 6:
YAL-40
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
4th Q
Leading Drive 7:
YAL-13
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 8:
YAL-10
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 9:
YAL-75
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Game 6-Berlin
Never held the lead
Game 7-Philadelphia
2nd Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-24
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 2:
YAL-8
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 3:
YAL- -7
Score?-N
TO?-N
3rd Q
Leading Drive 4:
YAL-57
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
Leading Drive 5:
YAL-50
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
4th Q
Leading Drive 6:
YAL-45
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Leading Drive 7:
YAL-48
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
Leading Drive 8:
YAL-8
Score?-N
TO?-N
Game 8-New York
1st Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-14
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 2:
YAL- -1
Score?-N
TO?-Y
Leading Drive 3:
YAL-8
Score?-N
TO?-N
2nd Q
Leading Drive 4:
YAL-5
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 5:
YAL-51
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
Leading Drive 6:
YAL-68
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Game 9-Arizona
Never held the lead
Game 10-San Jose
1st Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-1
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 2:
YAL-55
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
Leading Drive 3:
YAL-72
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
2nd Q
Leading Drive 4:
YAL-17
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 5:
YAL-52
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-Y
Leading Drive 6:
YAL-36
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
3rd Q
Leading Drive 7:
YAL-74
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
Leading Drive 8:
YAL-67
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
4th Q
Leading Drive 9:
YAL-10
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 10:
YAL-75
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Leading Drive 11:
YAL-21
Score?-N
TO?-N
Game 11-Baltimore
1st Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-37
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 2:
YAL-75
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
2nd Q
Leading Drive 3:
YAL-9
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 4:
YAL-35
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 5:
YAL- -2
Score?-N
TO?-N
3rd Q
Leading Drive 6:
YAL-52
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 7:
YAL-65
Score?-Y-FG
TO?-N
4th Q
Leading Drive 8:
YAL-2
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 9:
YAL-0
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 10:
YAL- -6
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 11:
YAL-53
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 12:
YAL- -9
Score?-N
TO?-N
Game 12-Sarasota
1st Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-1
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 2:
YAL-13
Score?-N
TO?-N
2nd Q
Leading Drive 3:
YAL- -10
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 3:
YAL-75
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Leading Drive 4:
YAL- -3
Score?-N
TO?-N
3rd Q
Leading Drive 5:
YAL-2
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 6:
YAL- -6
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 7:
YAL-53
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 8:
YAL-17
Score?-N
TO?-N
Leading Drive 9:
YAL-43
Score?-N
TO?-N
4th Q
Leading Drive 10:
YAL-75
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Leading Drive 11:
YAL-50
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
Game 13-Chicago
4th Q
Leading Drive 1:
YAL-66
Score?-Y-TD
TO?-N
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