*13 Roman Candles (aka Frost lost 130 million dollars)

[The_Kidd]

Thirteen Roman Candles

For those of you that do not know, at the beginning of the season a certain General Manager of a tropical marine pescatarian variety, high off his teams’ recent string of excellence (including an Ultimus victory), decided to put his money where his fin was. A proposal was laid out to the first thirteen users willing to put up 10 million dollars to win 10 million (for a total of 20 million dollars) if his team could not best the record of ten other teams. Even for the seasoned veteran, this bet looked both tantalizing and scary at the same time. Thanks to @ztarwarz, he published an article to enlighten us of the situation and some insight on the prospects of winning said bet. If not for this article, I believe the bettor’s pool would not have filled up. I would like to thank ztarwrz for motivating me to get 10 million dollars richer (is this what cryptocurrency investing feels like?)
Now, in addition to myself, I wanted to salute the other twelve users that helped siphon away 130 million dollars away in a single bet. So here are the other twelve winners: @zaynzk, @Oles, @slate, @Number 82, Ztarwarz, @siddhus, @Rusfan, @krazko, @infinitempg, @Tesla, @shrub02, and @Gragg9.

Now, I could stop here but this is “Murrca”, and it would be very unpatriotic of myself to not seek the most capitalistic route. Why not just collect my ten million? NO! Let us gloat and monopolize the event and collect a few extra million along the way. First, let us look at the three teams excluded from the bet: Berlin, Arizona, and Orange County.

Berlin entered the season with a team on the rise, but they were an older outfit. Berlin suffered some big regression hits on offense, but they offset that by signing star Wide Receiver Tychondrius Hood. Even with the signing, Berlin’s defense remained their strength, especially after signing Derred DeVille away from Sarasota. However, after a 2-2 start, where they yielded 676 yards and  8 touchdowns in the two games against Sarasota and Colorado, Berlin struck a trade for Tyron Shields in week 5. Since then, Berlin won 10 of their next 11 games (including a Week 12 win in Florida), which includes a current seven game win streak. Berlin currently sits two games ahead with one game left.

Arizona entered the season with one of the most talented rosters, powered by their dominating running back core. Even with several older players on the verge of retirement, Arizona’s roster is primed to be in contention for seasons to come. Arizona has one of the best statistical teams in the league, a fantasy powerhouse, but their game does not travel well on the road. Arizona sits at 3-4 on the road including losses to New Orleans, New York, and Austin with the latter being the only game within 10 points. Arizona has the same record as Sarasota with one visit to San Jose left (Arizona is in the driver’s seat to clinch top seed in the ASFC).

Orange County was a confusing but simple team last season. They were loaded with talented players, but they had a glaring weakness at running back that they could not overcome. Orange County’s talent just did not seem to mix like most people expected. Even with Goat Tank switching to running back, the Otters’ offense had a rollercoaster season. Meanwhile, the defense has struggled to stop the pass all season. Despite sitting at 8-7, Orange County still clipped the fish in week 8 via 4 turnovers and a defensive touchdown.


As we see, it was smart to leave out the two strongest rosters and a gamble to exclude Orange County with inspiration from the Goat Tank position switch. Hindsight in undefeated but swapping Orange County for Yellowknife or Colorado (two teams that have to play two games against Sarasota) would’ve increased the odds of the house winning but also made the variance more volatile. For the ten teams that were included in the prop, I will break them down into tiers for before the season and their current state.

Rebuilding (Seen as filler to make the bet enticing)

Baltimore Hawks – the youngest team in the league, currently on a 7 year playoff drought. The Hawks have had one of their worst stretches in franchise history and have underwent a complete rebuild to restore the glory. They entered the season with many holes left to fill on the roster.

Philadelphia Liberty – another young team like Baltimore, another team mired in a long playoff drought, another team undergoing a total rehaul from top down. Philadelphia entered the season with plenty of gaps to fill, but some of their key players are already close to being established ballers such as Ryan Negs, Gary Goodman, Jim DeSoto, Jake Fencik, and Killian Chambers. The Liberty weren’t expected to fight for the playoffs, but to at least not be a doormat the entire season.

New Orleans – an older team that had its run in years past. Time finally caught up to the Bayou Bandits and they had to watch many key players step away from the field the past few seasons. However, the holdovers such as Witten and Sloethisberger are still premier players in the league and can swing any game with a timely play or three. On the onset, New Orleans appears to be bridging the gap to have their future replacements ready to immediately contribute once their older players finally retire which in turn puts some strain on some of those longer developing positions like wide receiver and safety.

San Jose Sabercats – another team that is coming down from a successful stretch. After racking up Ultimus titles with a seemingly young roster, San Jose got old and expensive really fast. The success bred highly productive players who priced themselves out of San Jose’s salary bracket (ironic that San Jose, CA would not have enough wealth to share). San Jose’s fall came hard and fast, and they needed find pieces to keep that old Ultimus x2 crew together for one more run.

Retooling/Regressing (possible fool’s gold to sucker people into the bet)

Chicago Butchers – one of the oldest teams around. The initial core that started with the first expansion season finally is seeing it’s chapter close. George O’Donnell is likely in his last season and Chicago doesn’t have much star power on the roster. Many expected them to struggle to stay competitive throughout the season.

Honolulu Hahalua – A team that were stricken with bad luck when their big name quarterback went inactive 2.5 seasons back. Honolulu was forced to accelerate their win-now window and it did yield two modest seasons, but there just wasn’t enough time to maximize their talent. With a new quarterback on the way, Honolulu entered the season looking towards the future and preserving the holdovers from their two playoff appearances.

Colorado Yeti – a team that would be known in the soccer world as a “yo-yo”, they oscillate highs and lows frequently. They are consistent at being inconsistent but the one thing that stands out is that they are active and talented. Colorado has a great mix of vets and youngsters, and they run a system that maximizes the potency of Caliban to Lim, our version of Brady to Moss. With those two, they are guaranteed to give every team trouble.

Contenders (the teams people were most likely hinging on to win the bet)

New York Silverbacks – their offense is set up like a watered down version of Colorado. Howitzer and Kingston (an ex-Yeti btw) are proving to be just as deadly as the Yeti duo. However, the upstart Silverbacks thrive off their powerful defense led by the likes of Bob Roberts, Colt Mendoza, Jack Banks, and Dukburg Quakstak. The Silverbacks own one of the fiercest pass rush units in recent history, which carried them to 1st place in the ASFC two seasons ago. They continue to add talent and productive users and seemed poised to break out if their chips were to fall right.

Yellowknife Wraiths – of course the defending champs cannot be forgotten. Yellowknife powered their way to the Ultimus on the backs of the trio consisting of Colby Jack, Kai Sakura, and Zee Rechs. All players are in their prime and capable of at least two more all-star seasons. Then when you consider how much more talent they have on defense, it would’ve been a shock if they did not make the playoffs.

Austin Copperheads – how rare is it to consider the title losers the bigger favorite the following season. Austin, after a string of mediocre seasons, finally put it all together in the playoffs last season (they had to sweep “Honolulu” to clinch that playoff berth) and nearly escaped Canada with the trophy. With a rebuilt roster that no longer had ties to the S22 run, Austin put together a powerful unit, with TPE out the galaxy, that had star players all over and a Quarterback that still had room to grow before reaching his peak. There’s no shock the over under on this team was set at 11.5.


Now that bet is over, we can re-classify the teams based on their performances.

Bad But Young

Baltimore – a team mired in a long rebuild, but they have been stockpiling great players. They are a few seasons away, but only because the team is so young and needs time to develop.

Philadelphia – they have win-now talent, but they need to shed a good chunk of deadweight before they can start fighting for the playoffs.

Bad But Not So Young

Honolulu – anytime you bring in a new quarterback, there’s going to be growing pains. But the timeline doesn’t match with most of their core players if they want to make a serious run with those peak players.

Chicago – regression has finally grinded down the Butchers roster, leaving them with a thorough rebuild in the immediate future.

Austin – trying to solve Austin’s woes is as simple as explaining the crypto market. There are holes on the roster and the quarterback is still young, but no one expected a season this bad. Unfortunately, the start of the ending may have already arrived for the Copperheads as the timelines of some of their older players don’t line up with the new blood hatching down in Texas.

Teams at Crossroads

New Orleans – the teams core players are already in regression and despite still being exceptional players, at some point they will have that steep drop to Chicago territory. Sloethlisberger and Witten made New Orleans more competitive than they should have been and are 2 games back of Sarasota.

Orange County – at some point we expect the talent on paper to translate but it just hasn’t since Armstrong stepped down (aided by Nakumara leaving in that timespan too). The team is only getting older and at some point time remains undefeated. Will they be able to put it all together before all their S22 and S21 players are crippled by regression? Orange County’s reputation got the best of Frost on this bet.

San Jose – For San Jose, will time wait for them to find some quality players to bolster their roster? If some of San Jose’s S24 and S25 players were still around, this is a team that could have easily won this bet.

Yellowknife – The Wraiths had it all click last year, and it’s a good thing because I’ve noticed that all the inconsistent teams have trouble with their running back depth. Yellowknife’s main issue was their putrid rushing attack and it kept other teams in games the Wraiths couldn’t put away. With a lot of their key players already a year into regression, the Wraiths may be sailing off into the icy sunset. They still have a chance to tie Sarasota.

Teams Poised to Contend

New York – Young, Dangerous, and Rich (in talent)--- no that was not a nod to Kriss Kross’ last album, that’s probably the most apropos way to describe the Silverbacks. Their roster is balanced, and built to offset regression. They have top end talent everywhere and should be a threat for seasons to come. They still have a chance to tie Sarasota.

Berlin --- they sport one of the best defenses and have one of the best win-now rosters in the league. Their time is now and giving Kaepercolin an extra weapon might be the final piece to get them over the hump. They sit two games ahead of Sarasota.

Arizona – the only other team on paper that is better equipped for a win now run. They have some older players, but most of those concerns have already been addressed. They have two stud running backs which proved more valuable than having strong wide receivers and weak running backs. They are currently tied with Sarasota.

Colorado – Caliban and Lim make this team a threat to steal games simply for the fact how dominating they are and how easy it is for younger players to grow and assimilate under them without hurting the team. But kudos to the Yeti for retooling a defense that looked destined to be a sieve for years to come. They lead the league in sacks (3 ahead of NY) and are tied for the most defensive touchdowns (4 with New Orleans). It was only fitting Colorado sealed the bet by capping off a Sarasota season sweep with a 30-17 beatdown in Florida in week 15.

Conclusion

For Sarasota, they have a quality roster, mixed with old and young players in their prime, but they did lose a huge chunk of talent in the offseason, whether via retirement or free agency. They were able to beat up the cupcakes but struggled against the contenders (Arizona is the only top team they did not play). In the 4 losses to Colorado x2, Berlin, and New York, the Sailfish conceded 399.75 passing yards per game. Orange County only managed 264, but Sarasota had 4 turnovers. If @Frostbite wants to win his money back next season, Sarasota needs to shore up that secondary, especially the diminishing safety rotation. But they soon will have to part ways with their OG lifers that were around since their inauguration.

Word Count: 2366

[Frostbite]

And they say 6for6 is where the rich give money to the poor

[Net]

CANTALOUPE CROCODILE MVP

[infinitempg]

And they say 6for6 is where the rich give money to the poor

nah 20M is going from the poor to the rich amirite @Tesla

[Pat]

Philadelphia – they have win-now talent, but they need to shed a good chunk of deadweight before they can start fighting for the playoffs.

Overall this was a fun read because watching Frost lose that much money is hilarious. However, this part really stuck out to me.

What "dead weight" do we have to shed, exactly? Of our 26 players on the ISFL roster, only five are currently in regression - one of which is going to be auto-retired and one more is on an expiring deal. One is an Offensive Lineman who still has some gas left in the tank, and one more is a 1100 TPE player entering his second season of regression.

Eight of our offensive starters are seasons 25 or younger, as well as ten of our defensive starters. We also only employ three IA's - one of which is an OL and the other two have immediate replacements in the DSFL.

I get it - Philly has been in a constant rebuilding staging for a good while now, but come on man, don't try to act like we somehow have a ton of work to do outside of simply getting older.

[slate]

Frost sux lmap

[shrub02]

And they say 6for6 is where the rich give money to the poor

Not poor but I'll take the money  

[Gragg9]

In order to honor Frosts legacy I'm going to go blow all 10 million at the casino this week

[The_Kidd]

Philadelphia – they have win-now talent, but they need to shed a good chunk of deadweight before they can start fighting for the playoffs.

Overall this was a fun read because watching Frost lose that much money is hilarious. However, this part really stuck out to me.

What "dead weight" do we have to shed, exactly? Of our 26 players on the ISFL roster, only five are currently in regression - one of which is going to be auto-retired and one more is on an expiring deal. One is an Offensive Lineman who still has some gas left in the tank, and one more is a 1100 TPE player entering his second season of regression.

Eight of our offensive starters are seasons 25 or younger, as well as ten of our defensive starters. We also only employ three IA's - one of which is an OL and the other two have immediate replacements in the DSFL.

I get it - Philly has been in a constant rebuilding staging for a good while now, but come on man, don't try to act like we somehow have a ton of work to do outside of simply getting older.

I'll say it was semantics, and I used subpar phrasing. I did acknowledge at least twice that Philly has great talent but just not a complete unit yet. But, I think I'd be facetious to claim replacing 2 DL, a LB and CB in one offseason is a simple task. A challenge, that probably sits in the middle, kind of how Philly is right now --- in the middle (out the basement and knocking on the playoffs door)

[Pat]

Philadelphia – they have win-now talent, but they need to shed a good chunk of deadweight before they can start fighting for the playoffs.

Overall this was a fun read because watching Frost lose that much money is hilarious. However, this part really stuck out to me.

What "dead weight" do we have to shed, exactly? Of our 26 players on the ISFL roster, only five are currently in regression - one of which is going to be auto-retired and one more is on an expiring deal. One is an Offensive Lineman who still has some gas left in the tank, and one more is a 1100 TPE player entering his second season of regression.

Eight of our offensive starters are seasons 25 or younger, as well as ten of our defensive starters. We also only employ three IA's - one of which is an OL and the other two have immediate replacements in the DSFL.

I get it - Philly has been in a constant rebuilding staging for a good while now, but come on man, don't try to act like we somehow have a ton of work to do outside of simply getting older.

But, I think I'd be facetious to claim replacing 2 DL, a LB and CB in one offseason is a simple task.

But we aren't replacing any LB or CB this season? I'm so confused.