Welcome back to “Buy the Numbers!” This is our second and final installment of the series, where we will be predicting season records based on team talent score. For those who didn’t read the first article (thanks for your support, assholes!), here’s how the formula works. We graded each team’s starting rosters (no depth), making basic allowances for starting players out of position if a similar position group needed help.
This week, we are re-visiting our original assessments, looking at the record so far and remaining opponents, as well as noting the differences in talent score between preseason and now.
Colorado Yeti:
Initial Assessment: 8.6 wins. Current Record: 3-1. Talent Score: 2nd. Talent Improvement: 1st.
New Prediction: 10.5
At the moment, this is looking like the team to beat. Despite losing to their conference rival week one, Colorado has been on fire since, including the most dominant victory by a visiting team in the history of the NSFL. So…they have that going for them. Their immediate schedule will give them some difficult matchups, but then they will end the season on a tear, and are currently my favorite to finish at the top of the league.
Arizona Outlaws:
Initial Assessment: 9.2 wins. Current Record: 3-1. Talent Score: 3rd. Talent Improvement: 3rd.
New Prediction: 10.5
Arizona and Colorado are, just as they were last year, looking very close. Both have the potential to go 11-3, but each face a team on the road just barely strong enough to manage a win. An Ultimus rematch is looking pretty likely, and I think it could be a lot closer this time around. Arizona is having a lot of problems on offense, but it doesn’t seem to be due to lack of talent. As Dustin Evans and CA Chess grow into their roles, Arizona will have one of the deepest receiving corps, giving King Bronko a much higher TD:INT ratio in the late season.
Orange County Otters:
Initial Assessment: 11.0 wins. Current Record: 1-3. Talent Score: 1st. Talent Improvement: 6th.
New Prediction: 9
I have to admit that I had a LOT more faith in this team than this, but it seems maybe they had too much faith in themselves as well, because the work is not being put in. This team has grown at a rate well below the league average, and while they are still the strongest team in the league, I don’t see them keeping that title for long. That said, their schedule is about to get a LOT easier. With OC having almost all of their home games remaining, expect a run of nothing but wins for a while. Hopefully the excitement will spark more effort, otherwise they will be one and done in the playoffs again.
Yellowknife Wraiths:
Initial Assessment: 8.4 wins. Current Record: 3-1. Talent Score: 4th. Talent Improvement: 7th.
New Prediction: 9
The Wraiths have just begun a 6 game road trip. They won against Las Vegas, and need to do the same against Philadelphia. The Cats and the Hawks will likely win at home against them, and the Wraiths will stumble, not burst, into the playoffs, where they will face a team that is both already better and improving much faster. The Wraiths need to put in a lot of work if they want to be anything more than a space-filler, and it seems the cold Yellowknife winters are keeping that from happening.
San Jose Saber Cats:
Initial Assessment: 6.1 wins. Current Record: 3-1. Talent Score: 5th. Talent Improvement: 4th.
New Prediction: 7
I think a lot of people felt that the Cats were a little better than their 4-10 performance in Season One indicated, and therefore were expecting some improvement this year. But be honest, no one was TOO optimistic. I didn’t have a single response from even San Jose fans saying my initial 6.1 was too low, but here we are after four weeks raising it. Despite the whole number ranking, there are two games I think they have a 50/50 shot of winning (at home against COL and ARI), so I assigned half a win for each. This team still needs some work if they want to compete for a playoff spot, but their days in the gutter are long gone.
Baltimore Hawks:
Initial Assessment: 4.8 wins. Current Record: 2-2. Talent Score: 6th. Talent Improvement: 5th.
New Prediction: 6
Unlike the Cats, the Hawks needed a lot more work over the offseason. Unlike the Cats, they got what they needed in the draft, completely rebuilding their O line and adding serious talent on their defense as well. They still have concerns to address, but they are trending in the right direction, though perhaps not at the speed they need to be competitive.
Philadelphia Liberty:
Initial Assessment: 2.5 wins. Current Record: 0-4. Talent Score: 7th. Talent Improvement: 2nd.
New Prediction: 2.5
Unlike with San Jose, I did receive complaints about the low assessment about Philly, as the Liberty easily had the weakest roster in preseason. As expected, they are improving rapidly, and I do expect them to notch a couple of wins over the season, one at home against the Legion in week 7, the other at home against the Cats in week 15. Their week 10 road game against the Legion could go other way, meaning that the Liberty and Legion could each finish with 2 wins. Even in that case, I still put the Liberty above the Legion, as there will be no comparison between the teams in point differential.
Las Vegas Legion:
Initial Assessment: 3.7 wins. Current Record: 1-3. Talent Score: 8th. Talent Improvement: 8th.
New Prediction: 1.5
When I wrote the first installment of this series, I stated that I felt the initial assessment was too high, as I knew their improvement would be lacking. I never realized they could be this stagnant, though. After starting of 1-0 in a really exciting (if frustrating) opening game, the Legion have been dead on and off the field since, and have been the recipient of the worst at-home blowout loss of the NSFL. Here’s where it gets worse: I predict that they will also be the recipient of the worst-ever blowout in league history as well, because they face the Outlaws on the road in Week 15.
((1047 words))
GRADED
This week, we are re-visiting our original assessments, looking at the record so far and remaining opponents, as well as noting the differences in talent score between preseason and now.
Colorado Yeti:
Initial Assessment: 8.6 wins. Current Record: 3-1. Talent Score: 2nd. Talent Improvement: 1st.
New Prediction: 10.5
At the moment, this is looking like the team to beat. Despite losing to their conference rival week one, Colorado has been on fire since, including the most dominant victory by a visiting team in the history of the NSFL. So…they have that going for them. Their immediate schedule will give them some difficult matchups, but then they will end the season on a tear, and are currently my favorite to finish at the top of the league.
Arizona Outlaws:
Initial Assessment: 9.2 wins. Current Record: 3-1. Talent Score: 3rd. Talent Improvement: 3rd.
New Prediction: 10.5
Arizona and Colorado are, just as they were last year, looking very close. Both have the potential to go 11-3, but each face a team on the road just barely strong enough to manage a win. An Ultimus rematch is looking pretty likely, and I think it could be a lot closer this time around. Arizona is having a lot of problems on offense, but it doesn’t seem to be due to lack of talent. As Dustin Evans and CA Chess grow into their roles, Arizona will have one of the deepest receiving corps, giving King Bronko a much higher TD:INT ratio in the late season.
Orange County Otters:
Initial Assessment: 11.0 wins. Current Record: 1-3. Talent Score: 1st. Talent Improvement: 6th.
New Prediction: 9
I have to admit that I had a LOT more faith in this team than this, but it seems maybe they had too much faith in themselves as well, because the work is not being put in. This team has grown at a rate well below the league average, and while they are still the strongest team in the league, I don’t see them keeping that title for long. That said, their schedule is about to get a LOT easier. With OC having almost all of their home games remaining, expect a run of nothing but wins for a while. Hopefully the excitement will spark more effort, otherwise they will be one and done in the playoffs again.
Yellowknife Wraiths:
Initial Assessment: 8.4 wins. Current Record: 3-1. Talent Score: 4th. Talent Improvement: 7th.
New Prediction: 9
The Wraiths have just begun a 6 game road trip. They won against Las Vegas, and need to do the same against Philadelphia. The Cats and the Hawks will likely win at home against them, and the Wraiths will stumble, not burst, into the playoffs, where they will face a team that is both already better and improving much faster. The Wraiths need to put in a lot of work if they want to be anything more than a space-filler, and it seems the cold Yellowknife winters are keeping that from happening.
San Jose Saber Cats:
Initial Assessment: 6.1 wins. Current Record: 3-1. Talent Score: 5th. Talent Improvement: 4th.
New Prediction: 7
I think a lot of people felt that the Cats were a little better than their 4-10 performance in Season One indicated, and therefore were expecting some improvement this year. But be honest, no one was TOO optimistic. I didn’t have a single response from even San Jose fans saying my initial 6.1 was too low, but here we are after four weeks raising it. Despite the whole number ranking, there are two games I think they have a 50/50 shot of winning (at home against COL and ARI), so I assigned half a win for each. This team still needs some work if they want to compete for a playoff spot, but their days in the gutter are long gone.
Baltimore Hawks:
Initial Assessment: 4.8 wins. Current Record: 2-2. Talent Score: 6th. Talent Improvement: 5th.
New Prediction: 6
Unlike the Cats, the Hawks needed a lot more work over the offseason. Unlike the Cats, they got what they needed in the draft, completely rebuilding their O line and adding serious talent on their defense as well. They still have concerns to address, but they are trending in the right direction, though perhaps not at the speed they need to be competitive.
Philadelphia Liberty:
Initial Assessment: 2.5 wins. Current Record: 0-4. Talent Score: 7th. Talent Improvement: 2nd.
New Prediction: 2.5
Unlike with San Jose, I did receive complaints about the low assessment about Philly, as the Liberty easily had the weakest roster in preseason. As expected, they are improving rapidly, and I do expect them to notch a couple of wins over the season, one at home against the Legion in week 7, the other at home against the Cats in week 15. Their week 10 road game against the Legion could go other way, meaning that the Liberty and Legion could each finish with 2 wins. Even in that case, I still put the Liberty above the Legion, as there will be no comparison between the teams in point differential.
Las Vegas Legion:
Initial Assessment: 3.7 wins. Current Record: 1-3. Talent Score: 8th. Talent Improvement: 8th.
New Prediction: 1.5
When I wrote the first installment of this series, I stated that I felt the initial assessment was too high, as I knew their improvement would be lacking. I never realized they could be this stagnant, though. After starting of 1-0 in a really exciting (if frustrating) opening game, the Legion have been dead on and off the field since, and have been the recipient of the worst at-home blowout loss of the NSFL. Here’s where it gets worse: I predict that they will also be the recipient of the worst-ever blowout in league history as well, because they face the Outlaws on the road in Week 15.
((1047 words))
GRADED
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