*S15 after S15

[Roly]

742 words

First off - it's not that impressive statistically, but wanted to check in with how S15 was doing after S15.

The week of March 6th, 2019, provided a well-documented influx of players into the National Simulation Football League. Almost overnight, over a 100 new prospects and names cropped up. An almost unprecedented wave of talent crashing onto the shores of our sim football hobby, unheard of since the earliest days of the league.

The joy of this successful recruitment was quickly met by cynicism in some corners of the league. The usual refrains of "it won't last," "only a handful will stay active," and other more grounded concerns regarding expansion and overloading the manual processes we rely on (looking at your updating system) quickly cropped up. Although it was largely agreed the S15 cohort was a saving grace for a league some thought was growing stale without new blood, there was significant concern about the longevity of the new recruits.

So, after the S15 season has been completed and almost 4 months have passed since the wave of new NSFL players began their journey, let's take stock on how the S15 cohort has faired in retention.

First - a big thanks to @Eco and all the folks who helped create the "New" TPE Tracker. Between that tool and the new salary spreadsheet, its easier than ever to write about the league with easily accessible data. Awesome stuff.

To begin, let's take a look at the number of updates for each draft cohort since and including S10 since April 4 2019. This chart below visually depicts the results.



Since the last update only starts from the date of April 14 2019, there is a glut of players who were last updated then - even if their update pages had not been updated since before that date. But, most impressively, is the sky high yellow highlighted column in the most recent update of June 15 2019.

28 S15s updated in the last update, a significantly higher number than any draft cohort before.

And we can extend that June 15 2019 update to all draft cohorts:



Results for all draft cohorts:

• 1 x S5
• 1 x S6
• 2 x S7
• 1 x S8
• 5 x S9
• 4 x S10
• 4 x S11
• 8 x S12
• 6 x S13
• 6 x S14
• 28 x S15
• 11 x S16

It's a pretty good indication that things are going well for the S15 group when they are by far the most active draft cohort in the most recent update.

But, total numbers can be skewed when taking into account the size of the draft class. With over 100 new players, the S15 group was almost bound to be the highest total in most recent update. So let's check percentages:



Percentage results from the June 15 update:

• 14.3% of S10
• 11.4% of S11
• 18.2% of S12
• 26.1% of S13
• 33.3% of S14
• 31.8% of S15

Props to the S14 group who have managed to also keep over 30% of their draft cohort active to the most recent update milestone. But the S15's are right behind them, with 31.5% of the total draft cohort who updated once making it to the June 15 update.

The real question is whether the group of 28 S15s who last updated June 15 can sustain this momentum through the offseason and maintain 28 strong once the S16 season begins. Looking at the data available it can be expected that 2-8% of the 28 will drop off in activity, reducing the S15 cohort to 25 - 27 strong.

What is definitely exciting about the TPE tracker is the chance to get a more thorough understanding of the nature of player retention with data to back it up. If the Tracker stays active, we'll be able to get a nice picture of the effects that multiple seasons and offseasons have on player retention, essentially using S15 as a longitudinal study.

For instance, the effects of offseason on player retention will be interesting to see when S16 starts up again with the fresh update. With 10% of S15 missing the June 15 update, likely inflated from the prior average dropoff of 2-5% by teams missing the playoffs, it will be interesting to see how the number adjusts moving forward - if some of those S15 players return to activity post-offseason.

We can also start to do fun things like model the TPE retention rate:




Which shows that despite S15 holding by far the most aggregate TPE in the S10-S15 draft cohorts with over 10,500 in total, they aren't actually the best in retaining TPE with only 53.61% of TPE retaining activity in the most recent update. (Still impressive considering size of the class compared to its counterparts).

That's it for now, I just did this for fun to see how S15 was doing. No need for a stats bonus on this, the effort was all @Eco and folks with the Tracker, I just broke it down.

[manicmav36]

This is awesome. Great work!

[run_CMC]

Really interesting article - good work my man

[Eco]

This is some /r/dataisbeautiful level stuff. Love it!

PS: Idk how the payout/bonus system works for media but I think a lot of effort went into this article.

[37thchamber]

This is pretty awesome stuff.

But it also kinda makes me feel sad that I don't have time to finish my other data projects here.

If you have more ideas that could help with producing media like this though, please drop them in the Wiki/Development discord. It might be a while before they get made (if at all) but we have a few solid devs in there capable of doing some great stuff.

[majesiu]

742 words

@tlk742

[tlk742]

@tlk742[/QUOTE]
lol