*Quick & Dirty Playoff Scenarios

speculadora · (This post was last modified: 07-17-2020, 12:50 AM by speculadora.)

Disclaimer: I'm totally guessing on everyone's win rates. If anyone wants to share theirs and make this a touch more accurate they're welcome to.

A quick order of tiebreakers that matter as I remember them
H2H Record > Conference Record > Points For

The Games
YKW

55% @

45%

10% @

90%

25% @

75%

45% @

55%

10% @

90%

30% @

70%

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Locked in Playoff Seeds
NSFC
None (Technically)

ASFC:
1 - OCO

2 -

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Regular Season Title
Remaining Contenders: OCO, YKW, COL

OCO

Scenarios (47.5%)
- OCO wins (45%)
- OCO loses, YKW loses, COL loses (2.5%)

YKW

Scenarios (30.2%)
- YKW wins, OCO loses (30.2%)

COL

Scenarios (< 1%)
- COL wins, OCO loses, YKW loses, COL outscores YKW by 77 or more (< 1%)

??? Scenarios (22.3%)
- OCO loses, YKW loses, COL wins, COL fails to outscore YKW by 77 or more (22.3%)
- Creates a four-way 10-6 tie
- Playoff HFA Breakdown in this Scenario:
OCO

have HFA vs YKW

,

have HFA vs YKW

,

have HFA vs OCO

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NSFC #1 & #2 Seed
Remaining Contenders: YKW, COL

YKW

#1 /

#2 Scenarios (~100%)
- YKW wins (55%)
- YKW loses, COL loses (4.5%)
- YKW loses, COL wins, COL fails to outscore YKW by 77 or more (~40.5%)

COL

#1 /

#2 Scenarios (< 1%)
- YKW loses, COL wins, COL outscores YKW by 77 or more (< 1%)

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NSFC #3 Seed
Remaining Contenders: BAL, PHI, SAR

BAL

Scenarios (60.1%)
- BAL wins (25%)
- BAL loses, PHI loses, SAR fails to outscore BAL by 29 or more (35.1%)

PHI

Scenarios (33.7%)
- PHI wins, BAL loses (33.7%)

SAR

Scenarios (6.2%)
- SAR wins, PHI loses, SAR outscores BAL by 29 or more (6.2%)

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ASFC #3 Seed
Remaining Contenders: AUS, HON, ARI

AUS

Scenarios (90%)
- AUS wins (90%)

ARI

Scenarios (7%)
- ARI wins, AUS loses (7%)

HON

Scenarios (3%)
- HON wins, AUS loses (3%)

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Most Likely Final Standings

NSFC
1 - YKW