*ISFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities

[Cody]

After doing a DSFl Playoff Probabilities article I figured I might as well do a quick overview of the ISFL. 

Here is a link to the DSFL S24 Playoff Probabilities which has a quick explanation of how I simulated it.

That being said here's a breakdown of the ISFL starting with the current standings:

NSFC

Colorad Yeti: 11-2
Sarasoata Sailfish: 10-3
Yellowknife Wraiths: 5-8
Chicago Butchers: 5-8
Baltimore Hawks: 3-10
Philadelphia Liberty: 2-11

ASFC

Orange County Otters: 8-5
New Orleans Second Line: 8-5
Honolulu Hahalua: 7-6
Arizona Outlaws: 7-6
San Jose SaberCats: 7-6
Austin Copperheads: 5-8

Here is a look at the team results after running numerous simulations and a broad overview of each conference:

NSFC

  Colorado Yeti | Current Record: 11-2 | Playoff Probability: 100% | Average Number of Wins: 12.7

Sarasota Sailfish | Current Record: 10-3 | Playoff Probability: 100% | Average Number of Wins: 12.2

 Yellowknife Wraiths | Current Record: 5-8 | Playoff Probability: 85% | Average Number of Wins: 7

Chicago Butchers | Current Record: 5-8 | Playoff Probability: 15% | Average Number of Wins: 5.9

Baltimore Hawks | Current Record: 3-10 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 4

 Philadelphia Liberty | Current Record: 2-11 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 3.6

My Take

Not too much drama in the NSFC Colorado and Sarasota have already locked up a spot in the playoffs, it's only about who will get homefield advantage in the playoffs. The Wraiths are basically guaranteed a playoff spot with them receiving a playoff berth in 85% of the simulations. You can't count out Chicago though as they have a slim chance but could still make it. Baltimore has basically been eliminated unless they go on a crazy run and Philadelphia is eliminated. Philadelphia is guaranteed a Top 5 pick in the draft and should grab one of the stud defensive players from the Season 25 class.

ASFC


Orange County Otters | Current Record: 8-5 | Playoff Probability: 95% | Average Number of Wins: 9.7

New Orleans Second Line | Current Record: 8-5 | Playoff Probability: 65% | Average Number of Wins: 9.2

Honolulu Hahalua | Current Record: 7-6 | Playoff Probability: 55% | Average Number of Wins: 8.6

 Arizona Outlaws | Current Record: 7-6 | Playoff Probability: 55% | Average Number of Wins: 8.6

San Jose SaberCats | Current Record: 7-6 | Playoff Probability: 30% | Average Number of Wins: 8.2

Austin Copperheads | Current Record: 5-8 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 6.9


My Take

Now this more like it! Even though the simulation has Orange County as a virtual lock at 95% the rest of the field is pretty even. New Orleans made it 65% of the time while Honolulu and Arizona were both at 55%. San Jose has a decent shot with 30% but they're going to need some games to bounce their way. Austin still has a legit chance at the playoffs but the simulator didn't agree as they didn't make it in one simulation. The parity is very clear in the ASFC as only 3 games separate the top and bottom of the conference. I can't wait to see how the rest of the season plays out.


Final Thoughts

At this point I think it's going to be a showdown between Sarasota and Orange County in the Ultimus. I really like Colorado but there's just something about Sarasota that makes me think they're going to take it all and beat Orange County.

[RussDrivesTheBus]

If SJS misses the playoffs this year, I will cry for a month and a half.

[Pat]

Now this is fun content! Nice article buddy!

[White Cornerback]

so you're saying there's a chance

[Opera_Phantom]

Can't wait to not play in the playoffs again

[Cheech65]