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1004 wordsWith New Orleans' victory over the Baltimore Hawks on Monday clinching the franchise's first ever playoff berth the team now has their sights set on winning an Ultimus. It'll be a tough road, of course, since no matter how you slice it their path requires a win in Orange County.
Just two games remain in the remarkable turnaround season for the Second Line as they sit one game behind the Orange County Otters, winner of three straight Ultimus Trophies. However, there's only one game that matters - the two playoff-bound teams meet in Week 13 for all the marbles.
That's not strictly true. If Orange County loses to New Orleans they will still get home field if they win at Arizona and New Orleans loses to San Jose at home in Week 14 - but that is the only way that the winner of the showdown doesn't wind up with home field advantage for their playoff game and is incredibly unlikely. This also isn't taking into account the possibility of ties because they're so rare and would complicate this immensely.
New Orleans welcomed the Otters in Week 10 and the Second Line cruised to a 33-10 victory that was closer than the scoreline would indicate on the back of a very strong second half and winning the turnover battle 2-0. This win would prove important not just because it presented the Second Line to the league as contenders but because the two-win swing in both overall record and conference record is what has kept the Second Line in the race and has given them a real possibility of hosting at least one playoff game.
Whether it's in Week 13 or the first round of the playoffs, the Second Line will have to beat the champions on their own field if they hope to dethrone them, which is exactly the way it should be.
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Home Field in the championship is quite a bit less cut and dry. Between the games involving Orange County, Yellowknife, and New Orleans there are 32 possible outcomes and of those Orange County gets home field in 9, Yellowknife in 8, and New Orleans in 7 while 8 more will come down to the Points For tiebreaker between Orange County and Yellowknife that is far from settled.
What's more is no team completely controls their own destiny. If Orange County and Yellowknife both win out (far from unlikely as the latter faces Colorado and Philadelphia at home) they each be at 11-3 with perfect 6-0 conference records. Yellowknife would have the edge in Points For but only by 13 points and each team would have one game against a team in the bottom 3 of Points Allowed.
New Orleans doesn't have a path to home field in the Ultimus that doesn't involve beating Orange County and the only way they can get it without winning out if it both the other teams to lose out - incredibly unlikely.
To me the mostly likely outcomes are:
Orange County wins out
New Orleans beats San Jose
Yellowknife wins at least 1 game (doesn't matter which)
In that scenario, Ultimus home field would come down to Points For between the Otters and Wraiths if the Wraiths win out and Orange County takes it if the Wraiths slip up against either of the teams battling for the final playoff spot.
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The Yellowknife games, as alluded to earlier, are doubly important because they play two of the three teams fighting for the only unsettled playoff spot. A Yellowknife win over the Yeti, a Liberty loss to Arizona, and a Hawks win over the last-place Sabrecats in Week 13 puts the teams into a three-way 6-7 tie going into the final week where Philadelphia travels to Yellowknife and Baltimore hosts Colorado. In this case, Philadelphia would have an inferior conference record to whichever of Baltimore and Colorado win their game so they would be in the unenviable but mildly hilarious position of rooting for a tie.
Without taking ties into account by far the funniest scenario is one where all three teams lose out and Baltimore beats Colorado, sending all three teams into a 3-way tie with 6-8 overall records and 2-4 conference records. Philadelphia currently has the edge in Points For but Baltimore isn't terribly far behind and in this scenario they win a game while Philly loses both so it could come down to the wire. All-in-all, there are 16 paths for Colorado to claim the final spot (they're very unlikely to win a Points For tiebreaker) with 9 for Philly, 1 for Baltimore and 6 various flavors of Points For tiebreakers, all of which involve Philadelphia.
The Hawks have an incredibly slim margin for error. If Colorado wins either of their last two games, the Hawks are eliminated. If Philadelphia beats Arizona, the Hawks must win out, the Yeti must lose out, and Philadelphia must lose to Yellowknife for the Hawks to get into a Points For tiebreaker. If the Hawks lose at San Jose, both the other teams must lose out for the Hawks to get into a Points For tiebreaker.
The Yeti, meanwhile, are over 100 points behind in Points For and so must secure the playoff spot before that tiebreaker. They're the only team to control their own destiny - if they win out they're in. If they win 1 of the last 2 they're in a pretty good spot but need Philadelphia to lose to Yellowknife.
The Liberty are sitting between the two. Their most important game by far is at Yellowknife in Week 14. If they win that game the only way they don't make the playoffs is if Colorado wins out. The Arizona game helps them in some scenarios but ultimately a loss against Yellowknife gives them a 2-4 conference record that's rarely good enough to take advantage of their 7-7 record.
Should be a good stream tomorrow.
You can play along at home with this image for the NO-OC and overall home field scenarios and this image for the PHI-COL-BAL scenarios.
![[Image: h5Ta7H1.png]](https://i.imgur.com/h5Ta7H1.png)
![[Image: BVsashy.png]](https://i.imgur.com/BVsashy.png)
![[Image: image.png]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/332292285788192788/401385203261636609/image.png)
![[Image: AjG7IlG.png]](https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net/external/3XePkbq5Roxja4-XKktZu8IlUj3T3zxVQoCpIhNS_Lc/https/i.imgur.com/AjG7IlG.png)
![[Image: XSfVUgo.png]](https://i.imgur.com/XSfVUgo.png)
