*Probability of S20 End-of-Season Standings - W13

[goodfortunecoffee]

Here's an updated look at what I posted 2 days ago.

I simmed the final week 100 times to get these results.

NSFC
1. (98%)(2%)
2.(98%)(2%)
3.(88%)(12%)

ASFC
1.(100%)
2.(71)(29%)
3.(51%)(29%)(17%)(3%)[3-way tie w/ NO & AZ]

2oa: (67%)(17%)(12%)(4%)
3oa: (43%)(27%)(23)(7%)
4oa: (52%)(28%)(13%)(7%)

HFA: (79)(20)(1)

and again organized by team

79% home-field, 98% (1), 2% (2)
1% home-field, 2% (1), 98% (2)
88% (3), 12% 2oa
12% (3), 28% 4oa, 43% 3oa, 17% 2oa
100% 1oa

20% home-field, 100% (1)
71% (2), 29% (3)
29% (2), 51% (3), 13% 4oa, 7% 3oa
17% (3), 52% 4oa, 27% 3oa, 4% 2oa
3% (3), 7% 4oa, 23% 3oa, 67% 2oa

[FleshBagSoup]

sjs can still make it ? ????

[goodfortunecoffee]

sjs can still make it ?  ????

yeah they are in if they win, and NOLA+AZ lose. They have the 3-way tiebreaker, somehow.

[speculadora]

yeah they are in if they win, and NOLA+AZ lose. They have the 3-way tiebreaker, somehow.

We mathed it out in GM chat and it seems like in the event of a 3-way tie, combined H2H is used. so in that case SJS - 2-0 against NOLA and 1-1 against AZ- has the best record.

[Jay_Doctor]

This is awesome to see it all broken down!