* End of Season 2 Power Rankings

[tlk742]

1. Arizona Outlaws (12-2) Δ0
The Outlaws finish the season with only two losses. To put that into perspective any other playoff team had 6. Ending with a 6-game-win-streak the Outlaws are poised to be the NSFL’s first back-to-back champion. In terms of points allowed and for, the Outlaws can rest easy as they lead in both categories. Plus the fact that they have their rookie of choice in s3, this team could be a long term threat unless people want to get paid. It would not surprise me that this team won the whole thing at home; and it looks like little is in the way to stop them. Unless…
Tlk’s playoff prediction: NSFL Champion

2. Orange County Otters (8-6) Δ0
The Otters are likely the most capable team to beat the Outlaws in the Arizona heat. Only two teams have allowed fewer points on defense than the Orange County team, the Outlaws and the Yeti. If you ignore the fact that Boss is still fairly reliable at putting an interception in his boxscore, Otters could be the upset of the year. Do I think it will happen? It’s possible but unlikely. But if any team has been able to play the outlaws close, it’s the Otters. If the defense can do what they do best and maximize the mistakes of Bronko, a win would not be out of the realm of possibility.
Tlk’s playoff prediction: loss to Outlaws

3. Baltimore Hawks (8-6) Δ0
Remove Carmel Gibson and the Hawks have still put together a quietly good season. Don’t let the two loss streak fool you, both came on the road. They head back home to Baltimore where they can welcome the Wraiths with open arms. Here’s the thing about the Hawks, outside of Farlane, they don’t really have the household names their three playoff counterparts have. Christmas had a great season, and there’s nothing wrong there, but I often forget who is chucking the rock his way. But don’t be fooled, the defense is strong too. You don’t need big names to be the best, and in the NSFC, the Hawks proved that. They have been surprising and boasting the second best defense and the third best offense, they could easily be the first NSFC Ultimus champion.

Tlk’s playoff prediction: Win against the Wraiths, loss to Outlaws.


4. Philadelphia Liberty. (5-9) Δ0
Ok, real talk, the Liberty are better than the Wraiths. I’m not even factoring the slaughter that happened with San Jose, the Liberty have way more upside than Yellowknife. The team has stronger pass rush than Yellowknife and the defense is like a fine wine, it’s going to get better with age. They may not have their first round pick, but they still have young players on both sides of the ball and a GM that seems to be sending the team in the right direction. A few pieces in the late round and this team could be the NSFC’s Outlaws. They’re a force of nature (and freedom) and if they improve this upcoming season like they did in s2, look out world, it’s going be a two horse race with one from each conference.

5. Yellowknife Wraiths (8-6) Δ-1
Why do I have the wraiths so low? Well defense wins championships. And they do not have one. Bjornsson is the sole bright spot on that teams dismal line. In terms of sacks, by the time you get to him on the list, every other team has been represented twice. In interceptions, Lavelle falls below many other teams, and in Pass Deflections he falls below every other leading deflector on the playoff teams and Canton in San Jose. Hackett hasn’t shored up the defense in ways the team has hoped, as the Wraiths still sit with the third worst points allowed in the league. The offense may be fine, but when most points come against the teams that didn’t make the playoffs, the offensive numbers seem a bit inflated. They’re going to need to score on their draft picks. I’d say they were not deserving of their playoff spot but…
Tlk’s prediction: loss to the Hawks.

6. Colorado Yeti (6-6) Δ0
If the Otters had scored in the end, the Yeti would be back for another playoff appearance. Instead, they lost. And while I’d love to say the Wraiths didn’t deserve their playoff spot, the Yeti would have deserved it less. The Yeti choked. And they choked hard. They need to evaluate those losses, especially the loss to the Legion at Home. Had they won that game, they might be in the playoffs, but nothing went right for the Yeti this year. The Yeti boasted the second worst passing offense, and a run game that was unspectacular. Only the Liberty allowed more sacks and Noble finished with 20 interceptions, only 3 fewer interceptions than Berc. This was not a good year, and maybe it was a fluke but they need to re-examine the season in Colorado.

7. San Jose Sabercats (4-10) Δ+1
All eyes are on @ckroyal92 and @7hawk77 as this season draws to a close. The ‘Cats came out of the gate in the first four weeks and then it imploded. Their s2 draft picks overall didn’t pan out and the team needs to hit on their results. A rookie linebacker has declared he will not play for more than a year on the ‘cats, because their culture is dead. I can tell you that is not the case, also a really silly way of saying “I don’t want to help fix a problem; I want my problems solved for me so I can look my best. I do not have leadership qualities”. The team has been on the rise and everyone is excited for the rebuild. With two first round picks this year the team has a lot of promise going into season 3. Hunt broke 200 TPE and the receiving duo of Smallwood and Weston is looking promising to help make the team recapture the spark from the start of the season. Also did you know that Canton is becoming more of the island he was hoping to be. He ends the season as the pass deflection leader. If they can just clean up the ugly losses where nothing happens, improve their special teams and strengthen their defense, this team could be a force that people do not see coming next season.

8. Las Vegas Legion (3-11) Δ-1
God, what the Legion would give for their draft picks now. We’ll see what will happen but Las Vegas may be giving Ardie Savea the Barry Sanders treatment: Have no offensive line so that the running back who is great also runs backwards a lot. Well Savea, best of luck, but I think come s4, the team will start to reward you, as they may covet those draft picks now.

Code:

1,152 words

Please send my buddy @ckroyal92 the first 1mil from this. I’ll take the rest.

Code:

Graded
$1 mil to ckroyal92
752 000 to tlk742

[Bzerkap]

Very offended

[tlk742]

Very offended

When the Legion and Sabercats are the only two teams to have given up more points this season...I mean can you really say your defense is anything other than Porous? You were 5 points allowed off from being the third team to allow 300+ points.

[Deusolis]

"the Liberty are better than the Wraiths": Present Tense

With one exception (the team has stronger pass rush than Yellowknife), every sentence from that point on was a comment about how bright the Liberty's future is. Without commenting on the accuracy of that claim, it's completely irrelevant. If my little brother said he was taller than me right now, he'd have to prove it with measuring tape, not growth projections. Also, aside from their one FA, yours truly, the team has a secure future. The Wraiths have two of the league's top WRs, the best QB and TE and an MVP RB locked up going forward.

You are what your record says you are, and 5-9 speaks mighty loud.

[tlk742]

"the Liberty are better than the Wraiths": Present Tense

With one exception (the team has stronger pass rush than Yellowknife), every sentence from that point on was a comment about how bright the Liberty's future is. Without commenting on the accuracy of that claim, it's completely irrelevant. If my little brother said he was taller than me right now, he'd have to prove it with measuring tape, not growth projections. Also, aside from their one FA, yours truly, the team has a secure future. The Wraiths have two of the league's top WRs, the best QB and TE and an MVP RB locked up going forward.

You are what your record says you are, and 5-9 speaks mighty loud.

Sure, I mean if you ignore trends then yeah 5-9 is very loud. But trends matter.

The fact is that the Wraiths played their blowout wins on offense early and then the defense stuttered and never recovered.

Here's the problem, when we look at stats in the raw, the Liberty have more tackles and the lowest sacks and tackles for loss, the wraiths have the second lowest in that category. But, when playing out the Outaws at home, the Liberty did way better a week later than the Wraiths did. Here's some numbers

Against the Liberty the Outlaws went 0/11 on third down
Against the Wraiths the Outlaws went 5/12 on third down

The Liberty generated more turnovers and kept all other numbers similar to the Wraiths. The wraiths have a great offense, that's for sure, but the trajectory of the defense is way worse than that of the Liberty.

[TheWoZy]

Rigged!

[Deusolis]

Sure, I mean if you ignore trends then yeah 5-9 is very loud.  But trends matter.

The fact is that the Wraiths played their blowout wins on offense early and then the defense stuttered and never recovered.

Here's the problem, when we look at stats in the raw, the Liberty have more tackles and the lowest sacks and tackles for loss, the wraiths have the second lowest in that category.  But, when playing out the Outaws at home, the Liberty did way better a week later than the Wraiths did.  Here's some numbers

Against the Liberty the Outlaws went 0/11 on third down
Against the Wraiths the Outlaws went 5/12 on third down

The Liberty generated more turnovers and kept all other numbers similar to the Wraiths.  The wraiths have a great offense, that's for sure, but the trajectory of the defense is way worse than that of the Liberty.

I appreciate the detail in the analysis, but there's a reason extrapolation is frowned upon in statistics. The Wraiths acquired a 300 TPE LB with 5 games left in the season, and in those 5 games the exclusively played playoff teams (with the exception of the Liberty, who they beat). Do you think that sample is meaningful enough to draw real conclusions. This is obviously all for naught if Hackett leaves, but for comparing the teams as they are, I think the limitations with the data are relevant. I also don't think comparing matchups against common opponents is all that reliable just because of #AnyGivenSimday

[HalfEatenOnionBagel]

"the Liberty are better than the Wraiths": Present Tense

You are what your record says you are, and 5-9 speaks mighty loud.

I will agree that the rankings probably should be based on the current status of each team, but hey it's tlk's choice who he wants to rank where and I think Liberty is actually better than we get credit for. The Liberty defense is pretty underrated and is going to be outstanding next season. The wraiths do have some good pieces on defense too but everyone knows it's the high powered offense that has carried that team.

Also while our record isn't flattering this team has come a long long way over the course of the season and that isn't captured by our record. I'm happy with our progress and I easily see us in the mix next year.

Sucks that the NSFC has gotten so competitive so quickly while it seems like the ASFC is just going to be a two horse race for a while. But I guess I'd rather have some competition to keep it interesting

[kckolbe]

This is obviously all for naught if Hackett leaves

I don't like how you keep mentioning that.

[tlk742]

I appreciate the detail in the analysis, but there's a reason extrapolation is frowned upon in statistics. The Wraiths acquired a 300 TPE LB with 5 games left in the season, and in those 5 games the exclusively played playoff teams (with the exception of the Liberty, who they beat). Do you think that sample is meaningful enough to draw real conclusions. This is obviously all for naught if Hackett leaves, but for comparing the teams as they are, I think the limitations with the data are relevant. I also don't think comparing matchups against common opponents is all that reliable just because of #AnyGivenSimday

I agree with you, extrapolation is not the best measurement for statistics, but unfortunately, it is really all we have.

We cannot use the full season, as really the last five weeks had a huge change on the LB position for Yellowknife. So that leaves 5 weeks, and all but one of those were played at home, whereas Philly had 3 on the road, which means that there's a lot more variables beyond the teams being played. Which is why when comparing teams it's tricky to do with very little controls in 5 weeks of games.

Plus, power rankings are designed to be click-bait controversial.