Here’s a mid-season look at each team, as well as a projection for next season. All teams sorted last to first by current standings (I used my own assessments in case of tied record). I spend a bit more time on QBs, since I’m not doing a QB only article this week. As you’ve probably noticed, there just isn’t much of a rivalry to write about, and I just mentioned the other noteworthy things in the narratives here.
San Jose SaberCats
Current Record: 0-8
DL: 97, 140, 135 (retiring), 283 (3)
LB: 667, 631, 91
S: 121, 286 (retiring),
CB: 530, 315 (3), 392,
K: 104
QB: 507
TE: 373, 50
WR: 170 (retiring), 108, 547, 557,
RB: 261, 313, 124
Current:
I initially had San Jose projected as the last place team, but I did expect them to be more competitive than this. Surprisingly, I don’t really blame the offense. Christ has struggled a lot this year, but apparently his early struggles were due to an error in his file, and he’s been serviceable since. His TANY/A of 4.4 over the last 6 games is better than Falconi or Showbiz have averaged. Canton has been a beast thus far, making their decision to limit him to 13 carries a game in weeks 7 and 8 confusing. The biggest problem going forward is their special teams. They have the second-worst FG%, the worst punt distance, the second-worst inside 20 percentage, second-worst kick return average, and worst punt return average. Special teams are almost never talked about, but this team is a great example of the impact it can have. Looking at this, you can see why they are dead last in points for. In addition, despite giving up the fewest rushing yards and only 4th most passing yards, their defense has given up the 3rd most points. While lack of a goal line D is a factor, I’d say short fields are the bigger problem.
S12:
On offense, expect a noteworthy improvement. With Christ having one more season under him, and both Oles and Flash primed for breakout years, the passing game will be a completely different animal. Canton and Orosz should form a decent rushing combo, and their lack of #3 WR will be filled by Ty Justice, currently in the DSFL, and depth from TE Adrian Pitcher, while not ideal, give them more than enough to work with. On defense, their defensive line is a major liability. Barnhardt retires at the end of the season, and Chambers, their only competent DL, regresses below 200 TPE. Ja Brill is projected to auto-retire, and Rove will be sub-200, making him useless in coverage. If SJS devotes their S12 draft to defense, they can start improving considerably, but will still be the worst ASFC team.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Current Record: 3-5
DL: 392, 227, 141, 209 (retiring), 152, 157 (retiring)
LB: 565, 796, 518 (5), 201 (retiring)
S: 509, 1100 (5)
CB: 296, 201 (retiring), 913 (2)
K: 312
QB: 688
TE: 558, 264 (3)
WR: 257, 210 (retiring)
RB: 127, 366, 249
Current:
As predicted, Pennington is doing fairly decently despite his receiving situation. Switching Josh Parker to wide receiver helped with that significantly (at the time of my S11 rankings and fantasy QB article, Parker was still listed as a CB). The Wraiths have a barely below average passing offense, which, combined with the duo of Summer and Carrasco at RB, makes them a decently balanced attack. Rainey’s move to LB (also after my articles), has been a much-needed move to protect what could have been a disastrous run defense. Lavelle and Taylor continue to anchor the defense. Honestly, I think Yellowknife boasts a stronger roster than Philadelphia, but luck has not been with them.
S12
On defensive line, Yellowknife loses Maddox and Brown. At linebacker, Ridley will be gone. At defensive back, Zhang hangs them up as well. None of these players are significant losses, and Yellowknife will still have their required 11. Regression from Lavelle and Taylor will be the much bigger hit. With such a weak DL, their impressive coverage has been the only thing saving them, but that will not be a guarantee next year. On offense, Pennington will appear to regress as every other QB in the league will improve (except Maximus, who will gain TPE but mainly bank it). In addition, his #2 WR, Bailey Cook, will be auto-retired, and Harris will regress below usefulness. Unfortunately, I don’t see anyone useful that Yellowknife has stashed in DSFL. Due to having less to replace, I think they’ll likely be 3rd in NSFC, ahead of Colorado.
Arizona Outlaws
Current Record: 3-5
DL: 403, 238 (4), 260, 338, 237 (5)
LB: 204, 185, 354,
S: 153 (retiring), 911 (5), 678, 311,
CB:
K: 1164 (5)
QB: 713
WR: 596, 434 (3), 266 (5), 290 (5),
RB: 169, 239 (retiring)
TE: 506
Current:
Arizona is only 4th in passing yards, yet tied for 2nd in passing TDs, and Fitzpatrick is the #2 QB in fantasy. They’ve done this simply by limiting turnovers. The addition of Budda Browning opened up the passing game a lot, giving them big play potential from three different receivers. In addition, despite a weaker OL and heavily regressed Mackworthy, the Outlaws have rushed for 949 yards. While that is only 7th in the league, it is closer to first than last. They are, surprisingly, a top half offense. Unfortunately, defense has been an issue. The addition of Reese, Sackerman, and current DROTY Selich has certainly helped their playmaking, but penalties from the inexperienced have hurt almost as much. They are still bottom half in sacks and interceptions. The defense simply needs one more year to mature. As a team, they are much more competitive than their record shows. 4 of their 5 losses were one possession games, but the same was true for only 1 of their 3 wins.
S12:
Well, they’ll have that year. With Morris returned to activity, and the young Barnes and Hobbs more experienced, Arizona’s coverage should see a mild improvement. The pass rush, however, will be in a different tier, making that coverage look even better as well as shutting down the run game. On offense, Fitzpatrick won’t regress, but with Browning, Wachter, and Booter all regressing, his improvements as a passer will be minimal unless the team can pull in a free agent wide receiver. Where the offense looks to improve most is in the run game. TE Steven Moore, currently in DSFL, can provide some great blocking from the slot, and next year call-up Slim Shady should be a significant improvement over the retiring Mackworthy. Finally, this is where Fitzpatrick should see significant improvement as well, as he will be the most mobile QB in the league in S12 and have outside blocking in either direction. I’d currently rank them as the #2 ASFC team for next season.
Colorado Yeti
Current Record: 4-4
DL: 281 (3), 397 (retiring)
LB: 708 (4),
S: 499 (5), 170,
CB: 130, 183,
K: 204 (5)
QB: 1008,
WR: 991, 604 (retiring), 183 (retiring), 273 (2)
RB: 423, 196, 184 (retiring)
TE: 201
Current:
Just to get this out of the way, after I predicted them to be the not only the worst defense in the league, but potentially league history, they signed 4 players. They weren’t great players, but they are miles better than bots. Despite that, they are league worst in pass defense, rush defense, and points allowed. On offense, their rushing is last in the league as well, meaning the pass offense is the only thing keeping this team competitive. McCormick has been very effective this season as a passer. He may be only a bit above average in passer rating, but he is one of two QBs this season (Applehort being the other) on pace to set a new record for least times sacked, and he is doing it while leading the league in pass attempts (grats @infinitempg).
S12:
The loss of Sandoval on the DL will be a major blow, leaving Pierno as the only DL over 200 TPE (and barely). Their one DB over 200 will regress as well, leaving their pass defense as undeniably worst in the league. The best player on defense, Ishigawa, will take a significant hit as well. On offense, McCormick should be able to shore up his limited weak areas, completing the transition from kicker only one season ago. However, with Dwayne Aaron and Brian Wheat retired, his receiving corps looks pretty thin. Fox North will be the #2, despite being only a bit above the line for auto-retirement. Colorado will easily be the worst team in the NSFC, possibly returning to the days of 0-14. However, their recent trades will give them some extra picks in the S12 draft, so they should bounce back pretty quickly.
Philadelphia Liberty
Current Record: 4-4
DL: 193, 744, 602 (retiring), 150 (retiring)
LB: 320, 249, 250, 157 (retiring)
S: 324, 350,
CB: 451, 975 (5)
K: 262
QB: 521
WR: 352, 312, 835
RB: 454, 577, 193 (retiring)
TE: 176 (retiring)
Current:
On offense, Falconi had an amazing start to her season and career, throwing at least one TD in the first six games. Her current TANY/A of 4.29 may seem low, but ranks above Showbiz and Christ. Part of that efficiency comes from throwing for the fewest yards. The biggest part of their attack is the running game led by Brown, who leads the league for a second season in rushing attempts and yards, and has already crushed his touchdown mark from last season. Their defense has been the real secret behind their success, ranking first in pass yards allowed and 3rd in total points allowed. Garnett and Cobalt have combined for 6 interceptions, shutting down a lot of drives and giving Philly great field position. The front seven set up a lot of those situations, with Kamaka and Weathers combining for 13 sacks. Their kicker, Fulture, has been absolutely horrible, blowing a league-high 6 field goals, but it hasn’t slowed the team down that much.
S12:
The defensive line will take a big hit with the loss of Eli Kamaka, who is currently 3rd among their defenders in TPE. DE Davidson will retire as well, though he is just a body. At LB, the team will also lose Tucker, again just a body. Still, Philly seems poised to take a major hit on their pass rush, which will cause their improved coverage to look worse. On offense, the picture is much brighter. Falconi and all 3 wide receivers will improve. Steven O’Sullivan will retire, but Roger Batoff will be ready to be called up and will take over the role as an upgrade. Conall O'Sullivan will retire as well, but is unneeded even as depth. All in all, Philadelphia should have an easy path to the #2 spot in the NSFC, more due to their competition dropping off than anything else.
Orange County Otters
Current Record: 5-3
DL: 110, 330, 415 (5), 320 (2), 659 (1)
LB: 512, 708, 206,
S: 513, 1155, 321 (retiring)
CB: 361
K: 125
QB: 598
WR: 794 (5), 1078 (5), 224 (retiring)
RB: 382, 452
TE:
Current:
They will make the playoffs due to an impressive lack of competition from SJS and ARI, but this is not a playoff team. In fact, both conferences appear to only have one team worthy of the postseason. The OC defense has led the way, currently #2 in points allowed, which is certainly better than I expected. The preseason acquisitions of Bagwell and Ramero have really turned their front seven into a scary unit, and Broxton continues to produce on both sides of the ball. On offense, things are definitely shakier. Showbiz is turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Not only has he thrown the most interceptions, he’s also fumbled 3 more times than McCormick and Christ, the next closest in turnovers. He actually loses effective yards every time he carries the ball. I would recommend taking spread out of the OC playbook, personally. Their run game has proven fairly effective, with Adams averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If this team can limit turnovers, they can still threaten anyone, because the talent is definitely there. By the way (@speculadora), if you want Showbiz to play better, just find out which playbooks target your RBs the least. 7 of Showbiz’s 11 INTs were targeting Adams or Zephyrous. 0 of them were to Crush, by the way, mainly because he’s almost never targeted.
S12:
As has been a trend for many teams, the Orange County DL will take a significant hit, with Winchester, Clegane, and Sierra all regressing, but this will still be an adequate front 4, neither liability nor asset. The loss of Marcus Kane will hurt coverage, but Rice should be ready to take over without issue next season. So while the defense will regress, it’s not something that should hurt too much. On offense, I think what the team needs most is a proper tight end, or at least someone with good hands who can play in the slot. Both Atwell and Crush will begin their regression this offseason, and WR3 Garden will finally retire, but the addition of Sunnycursed and growth of Showbiz should keep the offense stable, likely even with a minor improvement. All in all, I think Orange County will actually be the #1 ASFC team in S12.
Baltimore Hawks
Current Record: 6-2
DL: 160, 341, 642, 649 (retiring), 422, 251 (1)
LB: 870
S: 193, 249,
CB: 543 (5), 665 (retiring),
K: 385 (1)
QB: 977
WR: 533, 958 (3),
RB: 750 (2)
TE: 590, 939
Current:
I think it’s safe to say that the free agency acquisition of Applehort worked out nicely for both team and QB. Applehort is having his best season by almost a full yard per play, and Baltimore’s offense is as scary as ever. The fact that they are #2 in scoring is very misleading, as Baltimore runs a slower tempo than most teams. On a per play basis, rushing and passing, Baltimore is the best in the league. About that slow tempo, though. What the fuck is up with their defense? One would expect, that a decent defense (like theirs) being given plenty of rest (which they are), would be pretty dominant (which they aren’t in the ways they need). The Baltimore D has given up the fewest points, but again, that’s due more to running down the clock as opposed to actually making big plays. For the record, Baltimore has the most sacks, but for some reason, they just aren’t generating turnovers. They are last in forced fumbles, and second to last in interceptions. I think they are the best team in the league, but they are currently looking at traveling to New Orleans for the final showdown.
S12:
I hate making assessments when it seems very likely a trade or position switch is coming, and that’s what I smell in the works. On offense, Trey Willie is starting to drop off significantly, but is far from done. I think he has 2 seasons left. L’Alto is the next-oldest, at S7, not even close to regression, and Harp and Valentine are both S9. All 4 are playing very well, and a change is not needed. They have Nagasawa and Hobbs (both S11) stashed in the DSFL. Hobbs might be willing to wait another season, but Nagasawa is beyond ready. On defense, they are losing two 600+ TPE defenders in Asipi and Blocksdale, and another DL and DB regressing. Schneider can fill one of the DB spots, and DL isn’t close to critical yet, but you can’t keep talent like that stashed forever, especially when the rest of the league is looking at it. No matter what happens, I think Baltimore is the top contender in S12.
New Orleans Second Line
Current Record: 7-1
Current:
Isn’t Maximus so much fun to watch? Despite being the highest TPE QB, and having extremely reliable receivers, Maximus plays with an unpredictability that just can’t be matched by any other competent QB. He currently leads the league in both passing and rushing yards, which has only happened one other time: last year, also by Maximus (@bovo, did you know this?). That balls to the wall aggressiveness has got to be part of why New Orleans is so well-liked. That QB aggressiveness is needed, too, since Smallwood is actually last among RBs in YPC (though he does have the worst blocking in the league). The fast-paced New Orleans offense has earned them the #1 rank in yards and points, but it also frequently leaves their defense exposed. New Orleans is 4th in points allowed, and has caused a lot of games to be closer than they should be.
S12:
Okay, tell me if you’ve heard this one, but their DL is gonna lose talent. Askins, the leader of their front 4, is retiring, and King is regressing as well. By itself, that isn’t a big deal, but New Orleans is also losing serious talent in their secondary, as Benson Bayley and Blackford Oakes both lose a couple hundred TPE each. This means the New Orleans defense will struggle to contain opponents even when rested, which will be less of a guarantee. Charlie Law and Alexander LeClair will be playing their last seasons, leaving a hole at WR2 and WR3. Paul DiMirio will be taking a huge step back as a receiver, and will likely be the last TE picked in fantasy next year. Smallwood hangs them up as well. That leaves them with 2 spots to fill on offense and one on defense. For Law, expect Halvorsen to be called up, but he has dropped off in activity a fair bit since the draft. With offense and defense each expected to decline in S12, I think NOLA will fall from first to third in ASFC.
Let me know if I missed anything, or if you just disagree with my assessments. I don’t really care, but I was so close to 3k words.
San Jose SaberCats
Current Record: 0-8
DL: 97, 140, 135 (retiring), 283 (3)
LB: 667, 631, 91
S: 121, 286 (retiring),
CB: 530, 315 (3), 392,
K: 104
QB: 507
TE: 373, 50
WR: 170 (retiring), 108, 547, 557,
RB: 261, 313, 124
Current:
I initially had San Jose projected as the last place team, but I did expect them to be more competitive than this. Surprisingly, I don’t really blame the offense. Christ has struggled a lot this year, but apparently his early struggles were due to an error in his file, and he’s been serviceable since. His TANY/A of 4.4 over the last 6 games is better than Falconi or Showbiz have averaged. Canton has been a beast thus far, making their decision to limit him to 13 carries a game in weeks 7 and 8 confusing. The biggest problem going forward is their special teams. They have the second-worst FG%, the worst punt distance, the second-worst inside 20 percentage, second-worst kick return average, and worst punt return average. Special teams are almost never talked about, but this team is a great example of the impact it can have. Looking at this, you can see why they are dead last in points for. In addition, despite giving up the fewest rushing yards and only 4th most passing yards, their defense has given up the 3rd most points. While lack of a goal line D is a factor, I’d say short fields are the bigger problem.
S12:
On offense, expect a noteworthy improvement. With Christ having one more season under him, and both Oles and Flash primed for breakout years, the passing game will be a completely different animal. Canton and Orosz should form a decent rushing combo, and their lack of #3 WR will be filled by Ty Justice, currently in the DSFL, and depth from TE Adrian Pitcher, while not ideal, give them more than enough to work with. On defense, their defensive line is a major liability. Barnhardt retires at the end of the season, and Chambers, their only competent DL, regresses below 200 TPE. Ja Brill is projected to auto-retire, and Rove will be sub-200, making him useless in coverage. If SJS devotes their S12 draft to defense, they can start improving considerably, but will still be the worst ASFC team.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Current Record: 3-5
DL: 392, 227, 141, 209 (retiring), 152, 157 (retiring)
LB: 565, 796, 518 (5), 201 (retiring)
S: 509, 1100 (5)
CB: 296, 201 (retiring), 913 (2)
K: 312
QB: 688
TE: 558, 264 (3)
WR: 257, 210 (retiring)
RB: 127, 366, 249
Current:
As predicted, Pennington is doing fairly decently despite his receiving situation. Switching Josh Parker to wide receiver helped with that significantly (at the time of my S11 rankings and fantasy QB article, Parker was still listed as a CB). The Wraiths have a barely below average passing offense, which, combined with the duo of Summer and Carrasco at RB, makes them a decently balanced attack. Rainey’s move to LB (also after my articles), has been a much-needed move to protect what could have been a disastrous run defense. Lavelle and Taylor continue to anchor the defense. Honestly, I think Yellowknife boasts a stronger roster than Philadelphia, but luck has not been with them.
S12
On defensive line, Yellowknife loses Maddox and Brown. At linebacker, Ridley will be gone. At defensive back, Zhang hangs them up as well. None of these players are significant losses, and Yellowknife will still have their required 11. Regression from Lavelle and Taylor will be the much bigger hit. With such a weak DL, their impressive coverage has been the only thing saving them, but that will not be a guarantee next year. On offense, Pennington will appear to regress as every other QB in the league will improve (except Maximus, who will gain TPE but mainly bank it). In addition, his #2 WR, Bailey Cook, will be auto-retired, and Harris will regress below usefulness. Unfortunately, I don’t see anyone useful that Yellowknife has stashed in DSFL. Due to having less to replace, I think they’ll likely be 3rd in NSFC, ahead of Colorado.
Arizona Outlaws
Current Record: 3-5
DL: 403, 238 (4), 260, 338, 237 (5)
LB: 204, 185, 354,
S: 153 (retiring), 911 (5), 678, 311,
CB:
K: 1164 (5)
QB: 713
WR: 596, 434 (3), 266 (5), 290 (5),
RB: 169, 239 (retiring)
TE: 506
Current:
Arizona is only 4th in passing yards, yet tied for 2nd in passing TDs, and Fitzpatrick is the #2 QB in fantasy. They’ve done this simply by limiting turnovers. The addition of Budda Browning opened up the passing game a lot, giving them big play potential from three different receivers. In addition, despite a weaker OL and heavily regressed Mackworthy, the Outlaws have rushed for 949 yards. While that is only 7th in the league, it is closer to first than last. They are, surprisingly, a top half offense. Unfortunately, defense has been an issue. The addition of Reese, Sackerman, and current DROTY Selich has certainly helped their playmaking, but penalties from the inexperienced have hurt almost as much. They are still bottom half in sacks and interceptions. The defense simply needs one more year to mature. As a team, they are much more competitive than their record shows. 4 of their 5 losses were one possession games, but the same was true for only 1 of their 3 wins.
S12:
Well, they’ll have that year. With Morris returned to activity, and the young Barnes and Hobbs more experienced, Arizona’s coverage should see a mild improvement. The pass rush, however, will be in a different tier, making that coverage look even better as well as shutting down the run game. On offense, Fitzpatrick won’t regress, but with Browning, Wachter, and Booter all regressing, his improvements as a passer will be minimal unless the team can pull in a free agent wide receiver. Where the offense looks to improve most is in the run game. TE Steven Moore, currently in DSFL, can provide some great blocking from the slot, and next year call-up Slim Shady should be a significant improvement over the retiring Mackworthy. Finally, this is where Fitzpatrick should see significant improvement as well, as he will be the most mobile QB in the league in S12 and have outside blocking in either direction. I’d currently rank them as the #2 ASFC team for next season.
Colorado Yeti
Current Record: 4-4
DL: 281 (3), 397 (retiring)
LB: 708 (4),
S: 499 (5), 170,
CB: 130, 183,
K: 204 (5)
QB: 1008,
WR: 991, 604 (retiring), 183 (retiring), 273 (2)
RB: 423, 196, 184 (retiring)
TE: 201
Current:
Just to get this out of the way, after I predicted them to be the not only the worst defense in the league, but potentially league history, they signed 4 players. They weren’t great players, but they are miles better than bots. Despite that, they are league worst in pass defense, rush defense, and points allowed. On offense, their rushing is last in the league as well, meaning the pass offense is the only thing keeping this team competitive. McCormick has been very effective this season as a passer. He may be only a bit above average in passer rating, but he is one of two QBs this season (Applehort being the other) on pace to set a new record for least times sacked, and he is doing it while leading the league in pass attempts (grats @infinitempg).
S12:
The loss of Sandoval on the DL will be a major blow, leaving Pierno as the only DL over 200 TPE (and barely). Their one DB over 200 will regress as well, leaving their pass defense as undeniably worst in the league. The best player on defense, Ishigawa, will take a significant hit as well. On offense, McCormick should be able to shore up his limited weak areas, completing the transition from kicker only one season ago. However, with Dwayne Aaron and Brian Wheat retired, his receiving corps looks pretty thin. Fox North will be the #2, despite being only a bit above the line for auto-retirement. Colorado will easily be the worst team in the NSFC, possibly returning to the days of 0-14. However, their recent trades will give them some extra picks in the S12 draft, so they should bounce back pretty quickly.
Philadelphia Liberty
Current Record: 4-4
DL: 193, 744, 602 (retiring), 150 (retiring)
LB: 320, 249, 250, 157 (retiring)
S: 324, 350,
CB: 451, 975 (5)
K: 262
QB: 521
WR: 352, 312, 835
RB: 454, 577, 193 (retiring)
TE: 176 (retiring)
Current:
On offense, Falconi had an amazing start to her season and career, throwing at least one TD in the first six games. Her current TANY/A of 4.29 may seem low, but ranks above Showbiz and Christ. Part of that efficiency comes from throwing for the fewest yards. The biggest part of their attack is the running game led by Brown, who leads the league for a second season in rushing attempts and yards, and has already crushed his touchdown mark from last season. Their defense has been the real secret behind their success, ranking first in pass yards allowed and 3rd in total points allowed. Garnett and Cobalt have combined for 6 interceptions, shutting down a lot of drives and giving Philly great field position. The front seven set up a lot of those situations, with Kamaka and Weathers combining for 13 sacks. Their kicker, Fulture, has been absolutely horrible, blowing a league-high 6 field goals, but it hasn’t slowed the team down that much.
S12:
The defensive line will take a big hit with the loss of Eli Kamaka, who is currently 3rd among their defenders in TPE. DE Davidson will retire as well, though he is just a body. At LB, the team will also lose Tucker, again just a body. Still, Philly seems poised to take a major hit on their pass rush, which will cause their improved coverage to look worse. On offense, the picture is much brighter. Falconi and all 3 wide receivers will improve. Steven O’Sullivan will retire, but Roger Batoff will be ready to be called up and will take over the role as an upgrade. Conall O'Sullivan will retire as well, but is unneeded even as depth. All in all, Philadelphia should have an easy path to the #2 spot in the NSFC, more due to their competition dropping off than anything else.
Orange County Otters
Current Record: 5-3
DL: 110, 330, 415 (5), 320 (2), 659 (1)
LB: 512, 708, 206,
S: 513, 1155, 321 (retiring)
CB: 361
K: 125
QB: 598
WR: 794 (5), 1078 (5), 224 (retiring)
RB: 382, 452
TE:
Current:
They will make the playoffs due to an impressive lack of competition from SJS and ARI, but this is not a playoff team. In fact, both conferences appear to only have one team worthy of the postseason. The OC defense has led the way, currently #2 in points allowed, which is certainly better than I expected. The preseason acquisitions of Bagwell and Ramero have really turned their front seven into a scary unit, and Broxton continues to produce on both sides of the ball. On offense, things are definitely shakier. Showbiz is turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Not only has he thrown the most interceptions, he’s also fumbled 3 more times than McCormick and Christ, the next closest in turnovers. He actually loses effective yards every time he carries the ball. I would recommend taking spread out of the OC playbook, personally. Their run game has proven fairly effective, with Adams averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If this team can limit turnovers, they can still threaten anyone, because the talent is definitely there. By the way (@speculadora), if you want Showbiz to play better, just find out which playbooks target your RBs the least. 7 of Showbiz’s 11 INTs were targeting Adams or Zephyrous. 0 of them were to Crush, by the way, mainly because he’s almost never targeted.
S12:
As has been a trend for many teams, the Orange County DL will take a significant hit, with Winchester, Clegane, and Sierra all regressing, but this will still be an adequate front 4, neither liability nor asset. The loss of Marcus Kane will hurt coverage, but Rice should be ready to take over without issue next season. So while the defense will regress, it’s not something that should hurt too much. On offense, I think what the team needs most is a proper tight end, or at least someone with good hands who can play in the slot. Both Atwell and Crush will begin their regression this offseason, and WR3 Garden will finally retire, but the addition of Sunnycursed and growth of Showbiz should keep the offense stable, likely even with a minor improvement. All in all, I think Orange County will actually be the #1 ASFC team in S12.
Baltimore Hawks
Current Record: 6-2
DL: 160, 341, 642, 649 (retiring), 422, 251 (1)
LB: 870
S: 193, 249,
CB: 543 (5), 665 (retiring),
K: 385 (1)
QB: 977
WR: 533, 958 (3),
RB: 750 (2)
TE: 590, 939
Current:
I think it’s safe to say that the free agency acquisition of Applehort worked out nicely for both team and QB. Applehort is having his best season by almost a full yard per play, and Baltimore’s offense is as scary as ever. The fact that they are #2 in scoring is very misleading, as Baltimore runs a slower tempo than most teams. On a per play basis, rushing and passing, Baltimore is the best in the league. About that slow tempo, though. What the fuck is up with their defense? One would expect, that a decent defense (like theirs) being given plenty of rest (which they are), would be pretty dominant (which they aren’t in the ways they need). The Baltimore D has given up the fewest points, but again, that’s due more to running down the clock as opposed to actually making big plays. For the record, Baltimore has the most sacks, but for some reason, they just aren’t generating turnovers. They are last in forced fumbles, and second to last in interceptions. I think they are the best team in the league, but they are currently looking at traveling to New Orleans for the final showdown.
S12:
I hate making assessments when it seems very likely a trade or position switch is coming, and that’s what I smell in the works. On offense, Trey Willie is starting to drop off significantly, but is far from done. I think he has 2 seasons left. L’Alto is the next-oldest, at S7, not even close to regression, and Harp and Valentine are both S9. All 4 are playing very well, and a change is not needed. They have Nagasawa and Hobbs (both S11) stashed in the DSFL. Hobbs might be willing to wait another season, but Nagasawa is beyond ready. On defense, they are losing two 600+ TPE defenders in Asipi and Blocksdale, and another DL and DB regressing. Schneider can fill one of the DB spots, and DL isn’t close to critical yet, but you can’t keep talent like that stashed forever, especially when the rest of the league is looking at it. No matter what happens, I think Baltimore is the top contender in S12.
New Orleans Second Line
Current Record: 7-1
Current:
Isn’t Maximus so much fun to watch? Despite being the highest TPE QB, and having extremely reliable receivers, Maximus plays with an unpredictability that just can’t be matched by any other competent QB. He currently leads the league in both passing and rushing yards, which has only happened one other time: last year, also by Maximus (@bovo, did you know this?). That balls to the wall aggressiveness has got to be part of why New Orleans is so well-liked. That QB aggressiveness is needed, too, since Smallwood is actually last among RBs in YPC (though he does have the worst blocking in the league). The fast-paced New Orleans offense has earned them the #1 rank in yards and points, but it also frequently leaves their defense exposed. New Orleans is 4th in points allowed, and has caused a lot of games to be closer than they should be.
S12:
Okay, tell me if you’ve heard this one, but their DL is gonna lose talent. Askins, the leader of their front 4, is retiring, and King is regressing as well. By itself, that isn’t a big deal, but New Orleans is also losing serious talent in their secondary, as Benson Bayley and Blackford Oakes both lose a couple hundred TPE each. This means the New Orleans defense will struggle to contain opponents even when rested, which will be less of a guarantee. Charlie Law and Alexander LeClair will be playing their last seasons, leaving a hole at WR2 and WR3. Paul DiMirio will be taking a huge step back as a receiver, and will likely be the last TE picked in fantasy next year. Smallwood hangs them up as well. That leaves them with 2 spots to fill on offense and one on defense. For Law, expect Halvorsen to be called up, but he has dropped off in activity a fair bit since the draft. With offense and defense each expected to decline in S12, I think NOLA will fall from first to third in ASFC.
Let me know if I missed anything, or if you just disagree with my assessments. I don’t really care, but I was so close to 3k words.
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