A Look at Team Total Roster TPE vs Wins

[Noppadet]

I don't have the technical chops to manage an in depth statistical analysis of how things are playing out so far, but I do want to take a broad look at stats and TPE and how they affect players. Ideally for a perfect analysis schemes would be the same, TPE throughout the season would be the same, and playing time would be equal. Since we don't have that the data should be taken with a small grain of salt (I'm sure someone more knowledgeable in statistics could figure out how this works better). View with an even bigger grain of salt because I'm again lacking the technical chops for an in-depth analysis .

First I'd like to start out looking at total TPE of each roster and then the point differential, and win loss record compared to that. This excludes bots.

Interestingly the average for points for and points against as of the end of week 9 is the same.

Average points for: 167
Average points against: 167

Baltimore Hawks

Baltimore Defense: 1,146
Baltimore Special Teams: 262
Baltimore Offense: 968
---
Total: 2376 TPE

Roster Size: 27
TPE/Player Average: 88

Win-Loss: 4-5
Points for: 191
(Points for - points for avg) = +24
Points against: 199
(Points against avg - points against) = -32
Point differential: -8
Points against rank: 5/6
Points for rank: 2/6
Win/Loss Streak: W2

Colorado Yeti

Colorado Defense: 1,095
Colorado Special Teams: 213
Colorado Offense: 1,108
---
Total: 2416 TPE

Roster Size: 30
TPE/Player Average: 80.58

Win-Loss: 6-3
Points for: 192
(Points for - points for avg) = +25
Points against: 188
(Points against avg - points against) = -21
Point differential: +4
Points against rank: 4/6
Points for rank: 1/6
Win/Loss Streak: L2

Yellowknife Wraiths

Yellowknife Defense: 1,230
Yellowknife Special Teams: 165
Yellowknife Offense: 1,308 (ignoring 3 new acquisitions who just signed)
---
Total: 2,703 TPE

Roster Size: 30
TPE/Player Average: 90.1

Win-Loss: 4-5
Points for: 150
(Points for - points for avg) = -17
Points against: 143
(Points against avg - points against) = +24
Point differential: +7
Points against rank: 2/6
Points for rank: 5/6
Win/Loss Streak: L1

Arizona Outlaws

Arizona Defense: 1,433
Arizona Special Teams: 50
Arizona Offense: 1,492
---
Total: 2,975 TPE

Roster Size: 29
TPE/Player Average: 102.59

Win-Loss: 6-3
Points for: 186
(Points for - points for avg) = +19
Points against: 145
(Points against avg - points against) = +22
Point differential: +41
Points against rank: 3/6
Points for rank: 3/6
Win/Loss Streak: W1

Orange County Otters

Orange County Defense: 1,360
Orange County Special Teams: 50
Orange County Offense: 1,188
---
Total: 2,598 TPE

Roster Size: 26 (less 3 new signs)
TPE/Player Average: 99.92

Win-Loss: 5-4
Points for: 167
(Points for - points for avg) = 0
Points against: 125
(Points against avg - points against) = +42
Point differential: 42
Points against rank: 1/6
Points for rank: 4/6
Win/Loss Streak: L1

San Jose Sabercats

San Jose Defense: 1,189
San Jose Special Teams: 100
San Jose Offense: 1,251
---
Total: 2,540 TPE

Roster Size: 26 (less 2 new signs)
TPE/Player Average: 97.69

Win-Loss: 2-7
Points for: 123
(Points for - points for avg) = -44
Points against: 202
(Points against avg - points against) = -35
Point differential: 79
Points against rank: 6/6
Points for rank: 6/6
Win/Loss Streak: W1

---

W/L Rank:
1. Outlaws
1. Yeti
3. Otters
4. Hawks
4. Wraiths
6. Sabercats

TPE Rank (total):
1. Outlaws
2. Wraiths
3. Otters
4. Sabercats
5. Yeti
6. Hawks

TPE Rank (per player average):
1. Outlaws
2. Otters
3. Sabercats
4. Wraiths
5. Hawks
6. Yeti



In the above image there's TPE in both defense and offense, and how they actually performed on the field. The big outlier here is the Hawks, who despite having about 500 less offensive TPE have been able to outperform a team with nearly 500 more offensive TPE. A large part of this could be that the Hawks do not run multiple quarterbacks, and since only one quarterback really matters at one time, the extra TPE a second quarterback brings is negligible. Scheme also likely plays a part. I would really like to take a look at Kyubee and the Hawks' receivers compared to the other quarterbacks in the league to see exactly what is going on with the Hawks. The Yeti, though with a TPE slightly closer to the average, also stick out as the number one scoring team, despite being the second worst when it comes to total offense TPE. Again with a a relatively small sample size this could simply be normal variations that will right itself over time to better match TPE totals, or it could also be that the TPE used by the Hawks offense is more effective, among other possibilities (like an awesome special teams unit! ). The Outlaws total's don't match the expected PF/PA but they do meet the expected first place spot. The Yeti on the other hand are nearly the opposite, both from the least average TPE per player, as well as the least total TPE.

So there definitely seems to be a correlation to team TPE and team win:loss ratio, though it isn't exact. It could correct itself over more games. I may create a little client-side scraper to lessen the burden of counting TPE and scrap the offense/defense/special teams split, but I thought it was interesting data nonetheless. I did not double check my numbers so if anyone wants to use this, feel free but be warned.

If anyone finds this interesting then next I'll do positional groups, doing my best assessing what's considered a valuable play for them, and what's not. I didn't originally plan on splitting team analysis versus individual analysis, but it's a ton of work and time vs word count compared to other articles (this took 2 hours).

Code:

Word count: 1,028 words

[ErMurazor]

Cool man!

[youngcricket]

bop

[adam2552]

[Noppadet]

Cool man!

Thanks!


I went ahead and cleaned up the end of the article a bit, and also added a little table sorted by TPE for points for and desc for points against, and tried to at least present a small summary of what I think the data could mean. My toddler got tired of me writing this last night so I had to end it a bit abruptly :shrug: :violin:.

[7hawk77]

Under sabercats, you have it listed as Orange County offense etc.

Interesting article!

[Noppadet]

Under sabercats, you have it listed as Orange County offense etc.

Interesting article!

Whoops, fixed thanks. The numbers are correct.

[7hawk77]

Whoops, fixed thanks. The numbers are correct.

That's what I figured.

I'm interested in how you would go about writing a scraper to get TPE, specifically if players don't list their current TPE. I'm not saying it couldn't be done, however I feel like it would have to be very robust.

[theFlock]

Who knew we were so great?

Great write-up!

[Noppadet]

That's what I figured.

I'm interested in how you would go about writing a scraper to get TPE, specifically if players don't list their current TPE. I'm not saying it couldn't be done, however I feel like it would have to be very robust.

I haven't looked into this more than just a quick thought, but I was thinking a javascript booklet that just pulls element data from the html.

The roster page for each team has the TPE written in the description of the title, i.e.: http://nsfl.jcink.net/index.php?showforum=69 which is updated when the team is updated on Saturdays.