*ELO Rating - season 2

[JuOSu]

Some of you were a fan of my ELO rating and I will continue to do it in season 3, this time for the first time live and every week! But before then, I still need to show all my work for season 2.

First things first: Two big things. First off, following 538.coms model, I also did a regression to the mean (back to 1500) by one third. Contrary to 538.com I did not start expansion teams at 1300 but at 1400 instead, as I felt like the difference wouldn't be as dramatic since it was only season 2. Given the results I had, I actually feel like I made exactly the right choice with that.

With this regression we start with the following ranking at pre-season:

Arizona Outlaws: 1579
Orange County Otters: 1530
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1509
Colorado Yeti: 1502
San Jose Sabercats: 1432
Baltimore Hawks: 1432
Las Vegas Legion: 1400
Philadelphia Liberty: 1400

Week 1:

1502 Colorado Yeti - 1509 Yellowknife Wraiths 17-27 (67%)
1400 Philadelphia Liberty - 1450 San Jose Sabercats 16-31 (72%)
1530 Orange County Otters - 1579 Arizona Outlaws 9-17 (72%)
1432 Baltimore Hawks - 1400 Las Vegas Legion 10-16 (62%)

As we can see, all four home teams won and were favored to win.

We end up with this total after week 1:

Arizona Outlaws: 1591 (+12)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1525 (+16)
Orange County Otters: 1518 (-12)
Colorado Yeti: 1486 (-16)
San Jose Sabercats: 1465 (+15)
Baltimore Hawks: 1417 (-15)
Las Vegas Legion: 1415 (+15)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1385 (-15)

Week 2:

1518 Orange County Otters - 1417 Baltimore Hawks 7-15 (53%)
1385 Philadelphia Liberty - 1591 Arizona Outlaws 14-23 (87%)
1465 San Jose Sabercats - 1525 Yellowknife Wraiths 16-18 (74%)
1486 Colorado Yeti - 1415 Las Vegas Legion 33-3 (43%)

This time, we get one upset, the Yeti were an underdog based on this, but it will become clear in the rest of the season that this was mostly due to Legion not yet being rated properly as an expansion team. Even as it was, the projection was close to 50-50 due to the home-field only.

We end week 2 with these new totals:

Arizona Outlaws: 1597 (+6)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1531 (+6)
Colorado Yeti: 1525 (+39)
Orange County Otters: 1498 (-20)
San Jose Sabercats: 1459 (-6)
Baltimore Hawks: 1437 (+20)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1379 (-6)
Las Vegas Legion: 1376 (-39)

Week 3:

1531 Yellowknife Wraiths - 1525 Colorado Yeti 3-17 (66%)
1379 Philadelphia Liberty - 1498 Orange County Otters 13-22 (80%)
1597 Arizona Outlaws - 1376 Las Vegas Legion 24-15 (64%)
1437 Baltimore Hawks - 1459 San Jose Sabercats 23-24 (69%)

Something we will see a few times this season and in the future, an away team that is actually favored to win, in the Arizona Outlaws and they did just that.

New totals after week 3:

Arizona Outlaws: 1613 (+16)
Colorado Yeti: 1543 (+18)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1513 (-18)
Orange County Otters: 1507 (+9)
San Jose Sabercats: 1463 (+4)
Baltimore Hawks: 1433 (-4)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1370 (-9)
Las Vegas Legion: 1360 (-16)

Week 4:

1507 Orange County Otters - 1463 San Jose Sabercats 19-23 (61%)
1613 Arizona Outlaws - 1543 Colorado Yeti 12-13 (57%)
1433 Baltimore Hawks - 1370 Philadelphia Liberty 30-14 (42%)
1513 Yellowknife Wraiths - 1360 Las Vegas Legion 17-7 (55%)

Again we have an away-team favorite and win with the Wraiths. Hawks were an underdog winning, but again this will be something that is fixed as weeks go by.

New totals after week 4:

Arizona Outlaws: 1607 (-6)
Colorado Yeti: 1549 (+6)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1534 (+21)
Orange County Otters: 1495 (-12)
San Jose Sabercats: 1475 (+12)
Baltimore Hawks: 1466 (+33)
Las Vegas Legion: 1339 (-21)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1337 (-33)

Week 5:

1339 Las Vegas Legion - 1495 Orange County Otters 10-19 (83%)
1475 San Jose Sabercats - 1466 Baltimore Hawks 20-23 (65%)
1549 Colorado Yeti - 1337 Philadelphia Liberty 14-18 (37%)
1534 Yellowknife Wraiths - 1607 Arizona Outlaws 10-21 (75%)

The Liberty win a surprising game at home as the underdog.

New totals after week 5:

Arizona Outlaws: 1619 (+12)
Colorado Yeti: 1537 (-12)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1522 (-12)
Orange County Otters: 1503 (+8)
Baltimore Hawks: 1476 (+10)
San Jose Sabercats: 1465 (-10)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1349 (+12)
Las Vegas Legion: 1331 (-8)

Week 6:

1331 Las Vegas Legion - 1476 Baltimore Hawks 13-16 (82%)
1522 Yellowknife Wraiths - 1465 San Jose Sabercats 40-24 (41%)
1537 Colorado Yeti - 1619 Arizona Outlaws 23-28 (76%)
1503 Orange County Otters - 1349 Philadelphia Liberty 13-3 (55%)

Wraiths were a surprising winner on the road, whereas Otters were favored on the road and won.

New totals after week 6:

Arizona Outlaws: 1627 (+8)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1555 (+33)
Colorado Yeti: 1529 (-8)
Orange County Otters: 1524 (+21)
Baltimore Hawks: 1481 (+5)
San Jose Sabercats: 1432 (-33)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1328 (-21)
Las Vegas Legion: 1326 (-5)

Week 7:

1555 Yellowknife Wraiths - 1481 Baltimore Hawks 19-37 (56%)
1432 San Jose Sabercats - 1529 Colorado Yeti 9-21 (78%)
1627 Arizona Outlaws - 1524 Orange County Otters 26-20 (48%)
1326 Las Vegas Legion - 1328 Philadelphia Liberty 13-20 (67%)

Even though it is in the "wrong" column, the 48% win percentage guess for the Outlaws was very close to actually having them be the favorite.

New totals after week 7:

Arizona Outlaws: 1647 (+20)
Colorado Yeti: 1540 (+11)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1529 (-26)
Baltimore Hawks: 1507 (+26)
Orange County Otters: 1504 (-20)
San Jose Sabercats: 1421 (-11)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1342 (+14)
Las Vegas Legion: 1312 (-14)

Week 8:

1312 Las Vegas Legion - 1421 San Jose Sabercats 30-20 (21%)
1647 Arizona Outlaws - 1507 Baltimore Hawks 10-13 (47%)
1529 Yellowknife Wraiths - 1342 Philadelphia Liberty 6-21 (41%)
1540 Colorado Yeti - 1504 Orange County Otters 3-19 (62%)

The worst week for ELO rating predictions. Three underdogs won games, the Legion with one of the biggest upsets in general so far.

New totals after week 8:

Arizona Outlaws: 1632 (-15)
Orange County Otters: 1525 (+21)
Baltimore Hawks: 1522 (+15)
Colorado Yeti: 1519 (-21)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1496 (-33)
San Jose Sabercats: 1383 (-38)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1375 (+33)
Las Vegas Legion: 1350 (+38)

Also, let me point out that I had a massive error here in my notes and had the Sabercats with 100 points more from now on, so here I go, calculating everything again from here on out....

Week 9:

1519 Colorado Yeti - 1522 Baltimore Hawks 9-28 (67%)
1350 Las Vegas Legion - 1496 Yellowknife Wraiths 28-39 (82%)
1383 San Jose Sabercats - 1525 Orange County Otters 13-27 (81%)

Three home wins for favorites here.

New totals after week 9:

Arizona Outlaws: 1632 (0)
Baltimore Hawks: 1542 (+20)
Orange County Otters: 1535 (+10)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1505 (+9)
Colorado Yeti: 1499 (-20)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1375 (0)
San Jose Sabercats: 1373 (-10)
Las Vegas Legion: 1341 (-9)

Week 10:

1542 Baltimore Hawks - 1505 Yellowknife Wraiths 17-24 (62%)
1530 Orange County Otters - 1499 Colorado Yeti 10-17 (62%)
1373 San Jose Sabercats - 1632 Arizona Outlaws 0-65 (90%)
1375 Philadelphia Liberty - 1341 Las Vegas Legion 17-13 (38%)

An upset from the Liberty on the road, whereas the Outlaws had the most lopsided game ever.

New totals after week 10:

Arizona Outlaws: 1640 (+8)
Baltimore Hawks: 1526 (-16)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1521 (+16)
Colorado Yeti: 1515 (+16)
Orange County Otters: 1514 (-16)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1395 (+20)
San Jose Sabercats: 1365 (-8)
Las Vegas Legion: 1321 (-20)

Week 11:

1395 Philadelphia Liberty - 1521 Yellowknife Wraiths 14-35 (80%)
1526 Baltimore Hawks - 1640 Arizona Outlaws 9-27 (80%)
1514 Orange County Otters - 1321 Las Vegas Legion 37-26 (62%)
1515 Colorado Yeti - 1365 San Jose Sabercats 14-6 (54%)

Otters win as the favorites on the road.

New totals after week 11:

Arizona Outlaws: 1652 (+12)
Colorado Yeti: 1535 (+20)
Orange County Otters: 1533 (+19)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1533 (+12)
Baltimore Hawks: 1514 (-12)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1383 (-12)
San Jose Sabercats: 1345 (-20)
Las Vegas Legion: 1302 (-19)

Week 12:

1383 Philadelphia Liberty - 1514 Baltimore Hawks 24-37 (81%)
1302 Las Vegas Legion - 1535 Colorado Yeti 23-17 (12%)
1652 Arizona Outlaws - 1345 San Jose Sabercats 26-17 (74%)
1533 Yellowknife Wraiths - 1533 Orange County Otters 10-21 (68%)

Two things stand out here. The Outlaws were a MASSIVE favorite despite being on the road. Also, the Legion with the absolute BIGGEST upset of the NSFL history, only a 12% chance of happening.

New totals after week 12:

Arizona Outlaws: 1664 (+12)
Orange County Otters: 1549 (+16)
Baltimore Hawks: 1519 (+5)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1517 (-16)
Colorado Yeti: 1501 (-34)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1378 (-5)
Las Vegas Legion: 1336 (+34)
San Jose Sabercats: 1333 (-12)

Week 13:

1378 Philadelphia Liberty - 1501 Colorado Yeti 20-27 (80%)
1664 Arizona Outlaws - 1517 Yellowknife Wraiths 27-19 (55%)
1333 San Jose Sabercats - 1336 Las Vegas Legion 23-7 (33%)
1519 Baltimore Hawks - 1549 Orange County Otters 10-20 (71%)

Another big upset as the Sabercats win on the road to avoid being the worst team in the league again.

New totals after week 13:

Arizona Outlaws: 1684 (+20)
Orange County Otters: 1563 (+14)
Colorado Yeti: 1509 (+8)
Baltimore Hawks: 1505 (-14)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1497 (-20)
San Jose Sabercats: 1371 (+38)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1370 (-8)
Las Vegas Legion: 1298 (-38)

Week 14:

1504 Baltimore Hawks - 1509 Colorado Yeti 10-43 (68%)
1684 Arizona Outlaws - 1370 Philadelphia Liberty 20-6 (76%)
1563 Orange County Otters - 1497 Yellowknife Wraiths (56%)

New totals after week 14:

Arizona Outlaws: 1697 (+13)
Orange County Otters: 1547 (-16)
Colorado Yeti: 1531 (+22)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1513 (+16)
Baltimore Hawks: 1482 (-22)
San Jose Sabercats: 1371 (0)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1357 (-13)
Las Vegas Legion: 1298 (0)

Week 15:

1298 Las Vegas Legion - 1697 Arizona Outlaws 7-43 (95%)
1371 San Jose Sabercats - 1357 Philadelphia Liberty 7-45 (65%)

The biggest win probability so far yet, with 95%, between the best and the worst team in the league.

New totals after the end of the regular season:

Arizona Outlaws: 1701 (+4)
Orange County Otters: 1547 (0)
Colorado Yeti: 1531 (0)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1513 (0)
Baltimore Hawks: 1482 (0)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1382 (+25)
San Jose Sabercats: 1346 (-25)
Las Vegas Legion: 1294 (-4)

Playoffs Week 1:

1513 Yellowknife Wraiths - 1482 Baltimore Hawks 14-16 (62%)
1547 Orange County Otters - 1701 Arizona Outlaws 13-17 (83%)

The playoffs were definitely an interesting thing this year. The first round between Otters and Outlaws saw the best two teams in the league square off. The Yeti as the third best team did not even make the playoffs and the Hawks got lucky with home-field advantage and found themselves in the final as the 5th best team in the league. Go figure.

New totals after playoffs week 1:

Arizona Outlaws: 1705 (+4)
Orange County Otters: 1543 (-4)
Colorado Yeti: 1531 (0)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1505 (-8)
Baltimore Hawks: 1490 (+8)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1382 (0)
San Jose Sabercats: 1346 (0)
Las Vegas Legion: 1294 (0)

Playoffs Week 2:

1490 Baltimore Hawks - 1705 Arizona Outlaws 6-33 (87%)

Outlaws were an 87% favorite in the final game of the season, which definitely shows how dominant they were and how little competition there was, especially due to home-field advantage..

FINAL RESULTS AFTER SEASON 2:

Arizona Outlaws: 1713 (+8)
Orange County Otters: 1543 (0)
Colorado Yeti: 1531 (0)
Yellowknife Wraiths: 1505 (0)
Baltimore Hawks: 1482 (-8)
Philadelphia Liberty: 1382 (0)
San Jose Sabercats: 1346 (0)
Las Vegas Legion: 1294 (0)

Some cool facts at the end summarized:

Highest rating: Arizona Outlaws: 1713 (after last week)
Lowest rating: San Jose Sabercats: 1294 (after last week)
Biggest upset: Las Vegas Legion winning a game on the road as a 12% favorite against the Colorado Yeti

The ELO rating system only got 11 games wrong this season already, which means it had 45 correct guesses and 11 wrong ones. If you include playoffs that means 48-11. In the regular season that is an 80% correct guess percentage. Based on the prediction analysis my sister did on the amount of correct picks every user had for the PT every week to pick the game winners, that would put my ELO system tied for 7th in the league, out of 47 users that picked games every week. I would say that is definitely counted as a win for this system and shows how amazing it is!

I hope you all enjoyed it. I will be back with this at the start of season 3 with predictions for week 1, including graphics, analysis and more. It will also see another regression to the mean by one third like after every season, so the final standing will be much closer again.

[Archon]

Incredible analysis! Not sure why you posted it in the graded articles subforum though, it should probably go in statistical analysis.

[iamslm22]

This is amazing work. Absolutely incredible. This also confirms what many of us thought, which is that those top 3 NSFC teams were all SO close and that the Outlaws are so much ahead of everyone else.

[SimmerDownBruhh]

The Yeti as the third best team did not even make the playoffs and the Hawks got lucky with home-field advantage and found themselves in the final as the 5th best team in the league.

Told you the Hawks ain't shit. ���� Just kidding.

Very dope article and analysis!

[kckolbe]

Did you ever decide how to adjust for free agency moves? Some teams, like the Liberty, clearly improved. Others, like the Legion, clearly didn't.

[JuOSu]

Incredible analysis! Not sure why you posted it in the graded articles subforum though, it should probably go in statistical analysis.

Ah yeah fuck. Can someone move it? Damn

[JuOSu]

Did you ever decide how to adjust for free agency moves?  Some teams, like the Liberty, clearly improved.  Others, like the Legion, clearly didn't.

538.coms ELO rating does not get adjusted with free agency or trades. the idea is that throughout the season the ratings adjust itself with wins and losses. What that means is, when looking at the ratings, one can expect the Legion to be worse than their rating and the Liberty better than their rating. But I don't want to adjust them arbitrarily.

[bovovovo]

Ah yeah fuck. Can someone move it? Damn

I'll move it, no worries

[JuOSu]

I'll move it, no worries

Thank you so much!

[Archon]

I'll move it, no worries

Mod abuse! #Movegate