Welcome to the Season Three edition of Buy the Numbers. As with last season, we will be predicting team’s records based on their talent, but this season we’ll have the benefit of observing how quickly each team improved over the last season. Due to trades and free agency, this arguably creates more unaccounted for variables than it eliminates, but that’s part of the fun. Also, as if that weren’t enough, updates are still being done for some teams.
Arizona Outlaws 11-3
S2 Preseason Prediction: 9.2 wins S2 Record: 12-2
Always own up to your mistakes. I was VERY wrong on this one. And while it won’t be the only one I was wrong on, the rest can largely be attributed to my failing to account for home field advantage. For the record, Orange County did have the more impressive starters, impressive depth as well, but the Outlaws Season Two draft picks turned out to be a lot more valuable than those of the Otters, and the Outlaws just plain worked harder than everyone else. In fact, the same is true this year as well. While the Outlaws were technically only the second most-improved team (following the Liberty), I feel that the Outlaws had the most in-house improvement. They weren’t limited to it, though, as Arizona acquired offensive lineman Pat Pancake in free agency, and star cornerback Philippe Carter in a trade with Colorado. Being on top of this list is no surprise, as I am sure everyone is picking them to win the Ultimus this year, and I am no exception.
Yellowknife Wraiths 9-5
S2 Preseason Prediction: 8.4 wins S2 Record: 8-6
Hey! I was actually pretty close on this one. The Wraiths were all over the place last year, but even though every team had the same opponents, one could argue that the Wraiths had the hardest schedule last year (not counting not playing themselves. After all, the Legion had the hardest schedule, as they didn’t get to play against the Legion). The Wraiths had both games against the Hawks with Carmel Gibson, as well as the ONLY game against the SaberCats after they acquired Peterson and before he announced his retirement. In addition, they played the team that improved the least (Legion) both times in the FIRST half of the season, and the team that improved the most (Liberty) both times in the SECOND half of the season. Honestly, I don’t think this made a huge impact on their record last year, but I do think their point differential should have been higher. This year, their explosive offense should be a LOT more consistent by having Bailey Cook at #2 all year, and Francois Lamoreux filling the only weak spot on the best O line in the league. In addition, their defense should be good enough to prevent every game from feeling like a shootout thanks to the acquisition of Wyatt Fulton from the Yeti. I’ll say it here: the Wraiths are the ONLY team that has a chance against Arizona this season. After all, a number one offense against a number one defense has NEVER led to a disappointing championship game. Okay, that was a low blow, but only the Wraiths have the blocking to withstand the pass rush of the Outlaws front seven, or the receivers to get open against their secondary. As you can tell from my predictions, I don’t consider these two teams equal, but they are the league’s only hope of a respectable Ultimus Bowl.
Orange County Otters 8-6
S2 Preseason Prediction: 11.0 wins S2 Record: 8-6
Hey, time for me to own up to another bad prediction, right! Right? Wrong. This team underachieved amazingly, but they were good enough to win 11 games last year. I’m standing by my prediction last year. They WERE the best, and technically, they were the second-best in how they finished. A combination of bad luck, inactivity, and predictable game plans cost them a lot of games…all 6 of them, in fact. Did you know that ALL SIX of their losses were one possession games? You know what WASN’T a one possession game? ANY of their wins. All of their wins were by more than one possession, meaning not ONCE did they get a lucky win. If you assume a one possession game is basically a 50-50 shot, then by all fairness, they could have gone 11-3 even WITH their inactivity. Okay, so having hyped them up for last season, why do I have them so low now? Well, is this really that low? Third best in the league is nothing to sneeze at, after all. That said, I see them continuing to decline. The loss of Vick Bowers, Jr and Franklin Harris hit them hard. While they may have had the strongest draft this year thanks to the steal of JD Boom, I think the culture there just isn’t strong enough to move higher.
Philadelphia Liberty 8-6
S2 Preseason Prediction: 2.5 wins S2 Record: 5-9
Yeah, I was decently off on this one last year, but I definitely underestimated how quickly a less-talented team could close the gap on the rest. Also…home field advantage. Let’s ignore that for now, though, and pay attention to where I have them this year. I am forecasting them as the fourth best team in the league. Forecasting is definitely the word to take note of, as they may end up the third best team by the end of the season (Orange County currently has the lead on them, but is losing it quickly). While some of that improvement comes from the HUGE trade acquisition of league-best defensive tackle Mark Ramrio and the biggest free agent signing with AC Hackett, a team does not go from 8th to 4th in one season on the strength of two players. This was the most-improved team in the league over the last season, and I think it was a fucking travesty that @adam2552 was not even nominated for GM of the Year. When I am the one having to stand up for this guy, something is terribly wrong with this league. When the Liberty post a winning record in their second season, I expect to see his name in the Season Three awards show, that way we can at least pretend it isn’t a complete shit show of friends recognizing each other regardless of performance.
Baltimore Hawks 7-7
S2 Preseason Prediction: 4.8 wins S2 Record: 8-6
Let me start by quoting myself when I made my prediction last year:
Colorado Yeti 7-7
S2 Preseason Prediction: 8.6 wins S2 Record: 8-6
While the Yeti’s record was very close to what I initially predicted, I definitely thought this team was going to make the playoffs. While we seem to all agree that point differential should be prioritized over points for, unfortunately that isn’t an option. Yeti got screwed. However, they did a LOT of damage to themselves. Losing both of their GMs didn’t help, and then the replacement GM stepped down as well. Both of their GMs are rookies, and the Outlaws certainly took advantage of that. Let’s look at their offseason moves. The Yeti lost Wyatt Fulton, Blaster Blade, Philippe Carter, and Big Bot, all significant parts of their formidable defense, as well as talented receiver Jon Ross. Who did they get in return? Brice Boggs (same position and archetype as Fulton, only less experienced), Bisquiteen Crocker (a defensive end who in no way compares to Blade), Vash Erikson (a defensive back who in no way compares to Carter), and Mayran Jackson (an improvement over Ross, but so angry at being shipped off that he is considering retirement). So not only did the Yeti defense take a huge hit, but they failed to address the one part of their offense everyone knew they needed. As I said above, technically the Yeti have a more talented team than the Hawks, but that talent is thrown around with no apparent strategy in mind.
San Jose SaberCats 5-9
S2 Preseason Prediction: 6.1 wins S2 Record: 4-10
Okay, NO ONE could have predicted that San Jose would regress to the level of expansion team after trading away two of their best players in Bailey Cook and AC Hackett, especially after a 3-2 start. Hell, once again, I am defending my initial prediction. After 9 weeks, before they traded away Hackett and Cook, the Cats had a point differential of negative 35, which would have put them in the range of 6-8. Over their last five games, they had a point differential of negative 106. Honestly, 5-9 is a bit conservative, but this was the first team I could really see in a tier below the teams above. The Yeti were more active and ahead in current talent, and the Hawks had less of a lead in talent but were even more hard-working. That said, I expect the Cats to start improving in Season Four, but this will be a bit of an adjustment year.
Las Vegas Legion 1-13
S2 Preseason Prediction: 3.7 wins S2 Record: 3-11
So, on one hand…yay I was close? I’ve defended some inaccurate calls, so I guess it’s only fair I attack an accurate one. They won week 1, with home field advantage being enough to overcome a slightly stronger visitor. Okay, fair enough. Their other two wins were on the road against better teams. Those were extremely undeserved wins. They should have won in Week 10 against the visiting Liberty, but only barely. That means that the Legion were a 2 win team in Season Two. Since then, they lost the biggest part of their defense, the only thing keeping them competitive. Now, the addition of Blaster Blade is noteworthy, and with him and Vinny Cox on the defensive line, expect a decent showing on sacks and tackles for loss, but this is still a bad team, the least improved in the league after already finishing the worst. Unfortunately, one win is one more than I want them to get, due to a certain bet I made, but it seems the most likely outcome. I wish the Season Three index was out, that way I could try to call which game they actually win, but oh well.
There you have it, folks. If you enjoyed this and want to hear more, look for me in an upcoming podcast with @Sweetwater where we’ll be discussing Season Three expectations. If there’s anything you want to see mentioned in particular, feel free to mention it in the comments.
((please give $.5 million to @Dangles13, $.5 million to @Kris, $.5 million to @runrunpasspunt and $.5 million to @`incitehysteria`))
GRADED
Arizona Outlaws 11-3
S2 Preseason Prediction: 9.2 wins S2 Record: 12-2
Always own up to your mistakes. I was VERY wrong on this one. And while it won’t be the only one I was wrong on, the rest can largely be attributed to my failing to account for home field advantage. For the record, Orange County did have the more impressive starters, impressive depth as well, but the Outlaws Season Two draft picks turned out to be a lot more valuable than those of the Otters, and the Outlaws just plain worked harder than everyone else. In fact, the same is true this year as well. While the Outlaws were technically only the second most-improved team (following the Liberty), I feel that the Outlaws had the most in-house improvement. They weren’t limited to it, though, as Arizona acquired offensive lineman Pat Pancake in free agency, and star cornerback Philippe Carter in a trade with Colorado. Being on top of this list is no surprise, as I am sure everyone is picking them to win the Ultimus this year, and I am no exception.
Yellowknife Wraiths 9-5
S2 Preseason Prediction: 8.4 wins S2 Record: 8-6
Hey! I was actually pretty close on this one. The Wraiths were all over the place last year, but even though every team had the same opponents, one could argue that the Wraiths had the hardest schedule last year (not counting not playing themselves. After all, the Legion had the hardest schedule, as they didn’t get to play against the Legion). The Wraiths had both games against the Hawks with Carmel Gibson, as well as the ONLY game against the SaberCats after they acquired Peterson and before he announced his retirement. In addition, they played the team that improved the least (Legion) both times in the FIRST half of the season, and the team that improved the most (Liberty) both times in the SECOND half of the season. Honestly, I don’t think this made a huge impact on their record last year, but I do think their point differential should have been higher. This year, their explosive offense should be a LOT more consistent by having Bailey Cook at #2 all year, and Francois Lamoreux filling the only weak spot on the best O line in the league. In addition, their defense should be good enough to prevent every game from feeling like a shootout thanks to the acquisition of Wyatt Fulton from the Yeti. I’ll say it here: the Wraiths are the ONLY team that has a chance against Arizona this season. After all, a number one offense against a number one defense has NEVER led to a disappointing championship game. Okay, that was a low blow, but only the Wraiths have the blocking to withstand the pass rush of the Outlaws front seven, or the receivers to get open against their secondary. As you can tell from my predictions, I don’t consider these two teams equal, but they are the league’s only hope of a respectable Ultimus Bowl.
Orange County Otters 8-6
S2 Preseason Prediction: 11.0 wins S2 Record: 8-6
Hey, time for me to own up to another bad prediction, right! Right? Wrong. This team underachieved amazingly, but they were good enough to win 11 games last year. I’m standing by my prediction last year. They WERE the best, and technically, they were the second-best in how they finished. A combination of bad luck, inactivity, and predictable game plans cost them a lot of games…all 6 of them, in fact. Did you know that ALL SIX of their losses were one possession games? You know what WASN’T a one possession game? ANY of their wins. All of their wins were by more than one possession, meaning not ONCE did they get a lucky win. If you assume a one possession game is basically a 50-50 shot, then by all fairness, they could have gone 11-3 even WITH their inactivity. Okay, so having hyped them up for last season, why do I have them so low now? Well, is this really that low? Third best in the league is nothing to sneeze at, after all. That said, I see them continuing to decline. The loss of Vick Bowers, Jr and Franklin Harris hit them hard. While they may have had the strongest draft this year thanks to the steal of JD Boom, I think the culture there just isn’t strong enough to move higher.
Philadelphia Liberty 8-6
S2 Preseason Prediction: 2.5 wins S2 Record: 5-9
Yeah, I was decently off on this one last year, but I definitely underestimated how quickly a less-talented team could close the gap on the rest. Also…home field advantage. Let’s ignore that for now, though, and pay attention to where I have them this year. I am forecasting them as the fourth best team in the league. Forecasting is definitely the word to take note of, as they may end up the third best team by the end of the season (Orange County currently has the lead on them, but is losing it quickly). While some of that improvement comes from the HUGE trade acquisition of league-best defensive tackle Mark Ramrio and the biggest free agent signing with AC Hackett, a team does not go from 8th to 4th in one season on the strength of two players. This was the most-improved team in the league over the last season, and I think it was a fucking travesty that @adam2552 was not even nominated for GM of the Year. When I am the one having to stand up for this guy, something is terribly wrong with this league. When the Liberty post a winning record in their second season, I expect to see his name in the Season Three awards show, that way we can at least pretend it isn’t a complete shit show of friends recognizing each other regardless of performance.
Baltimore Hawks 7-7
S2 Preseason Prediction: 4.8 wins S2 Record: 8-6
Let me start by quoting myself when I made my prediction last year:
Quote: If there is any team that has the potential to make me look bad, as in REALLY bad, it’s the Hawks. There are two reasons for this. 1) The Hawks drafted a LOT of good talent in the early rounds of the draft, making them a dangerous late-season opponent. 2) Their schedule starts off kind of easy. Five of their first six games are very winnableSo, despite the low number, I did acknowledge that they had a chance, and that was before knowing how phenomenally lucky this team would be. Between an illegal player and five of their 8 wins being one possession games, this team DID over-achieve, as their point differential of minus five showed. They were the only winning team with a negative point differential. Two teams with the same record had a PD 57 points higher. By comparison, the Liberty’s PD was only 31 points lower, and they lost an additional three games. Not much changed for the Hawks this year. They lost Pat Pancake in free agency and released Carmel Gibson, so their run game will take a small hit as they were both capable blockers. I’d say their passing game would suffer as well, but the drafting of Trey Willie not only adds a lot of talent to the receiving corps, but also versatility, as Christmas and Vincent are a bit too similar. I should note that the Hawks are technically the SIXTH most-talented team, with the Yeti a bit above them (and really just a bit), but the Hawks are more active as well as a LOT more balanced across their roster, so I bumped them ahead. I could see this team going 8-6 again, but they are undeniably a bottom-half team, and you can only predict so many winning records.
Colorado Yeti 7-7
S2 Preseason Prediction: 8.6 wins S2 Record: 8-6
While the Yeti’s record was very close to what I initially predicted, I definitely thought this team was going to make the playoffs. While we seem to all agree that point differential should be prioritized over points for, unfortunately that isn’t an option. Yeti got screwed. However, they did a LOT of damage to themselves. Losing both of their GMs didn’t help, and then the replacement GM stepped down as well. Both of their GMs are rookies, and the Outlaws certainly took advantage of that. Let’s look at their offseason moves. The Yeti lost Wyatt Fulton, Blaster Blade, Philippe Carter, and Big Bot, all significant parts of their formidable defense, as well as talented receiver Jon Ross. Who did they get in return? Brice Boggs (same position and archetype as Fulton, only less experienced), Bisquiteen Crocker (a defensive end who in no way compares to Blade), Vash Erikson (a defensive back who in no way compares to Carter), and Mayran Jackson (an improvement over Ross, but so angry at being shipped off that he is considering retirement). So not only did the Yeti defense take a huge hit, but they failed to address the one part of their offense everyone knew they needed. As I said above, technically the Yeti have a more talented team than the Hawks, but that talent is thrown around with no apparent strategy in mind.
San Jose SaberCats 5-9
S2 Preseason Prediction: 6.1 wins S2 Record: 4-10
Okay, NO ONE could have predicted that San Jose would regress to the level of expansion team after trading away two of their best players in Bailey Cook and AC Hackett, especially after a 3-2 start. Hell, once again, I am defending my initial prediction. After 9 weeks, before they traded away Hackett and Cook, the Cats had a point differential of negative 35, which would have put them in the range of 6-8. Over their last five games, they had a point differential of negative 106. Honestly, 5-9 is a bit conservative, but this was the first team I could really see in a tier below the teams above. The Yeti were more active and ahead in current talent, and the Hawks had less of a lead in talent but were even more hard-working. That said, I expect the Cats to start improving in Season Four, but this will be a bit of an adjustment year.
Las Vegas Legion 1-13
S2 Preseason Prediction: 3.7 wins S2 Record: 3-11
So, on one hand…yay I was close? I’ve defended some inaccurate calls, so I guess it’s only fair I attack an accurate one. They won week 1, with home field advantage being enough to overcome a slightly stronger visitor. Okay, fair enough. Their other two wins were on the road against better teams. Those were extremely undeserved wins. They should have won in Week 10 against the visiting Liberty, but only barely. That means that the Legion were a 2 win team in Season Two. Since then, they lost the biggest part of their defense, the only thing keeping them competitive. Now, the addition of Blaster Blade is noteworthy, and with him and Vinny Cox on the defensive line, expect a decent showing on sacks and tackles for loss, but this is still a bad team, the least improved in the league after already finishing the worst. Unfortunately, one win is one more than I want them to get, due to a certain bet I made, but it seems the most likely outcome. I wish the Season Three index was out, that way I could try to call which game they actually win, but oh well.
There you have it, folks. If you enjoyed this and want to hear more, look for me in an upcoming podcast with @Sweetwater where we’ll be discussing Season Three expectations. If there’s anything you want to see mentioned in particular, feel free to mention it in the comments.
((please give $.5 million to @Dangles13, $.5 million to @Kris, $.5 million to @runrunpasspunt and $.5 million to @`incitehysteria`))
GRADED
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