Point Differential got a LOT of attention last year thanks to the Yeti. It's a shame that's the ONLY time it got that attention. As a Wraiths member, I've been a bit more aware. Let me explain. The Wraiths have failed to win the conference in all three seasons so far. That's fairly well known. What's less well-known is that all three years, the Wraiths have had a better point differential than EVERY team that has placed ahead of them in the conference standings (Yeti in S1, Hawks in S2, Hawks AND Liberty in S3).
This got me thinking, which teams have squeezed out the most wins or barely missed the most losses? Additionally, how do teams' total win-loss records compare with their total point differentials?
First, let's look at one possession games. In the NFL, they are considered basically 50% chances. Due to the...special clock management in the NSFL, that may not be the case, but it is still the standard. We'll start with the NSFC.
COL: 17 games, 9-8
YKW: 18 games, 10-8
BAL: 24 games, 13-11
PHI: 10 games, 5-5
Wow. So...gonna go out on a limb and say the AFSC has not been QUITE as lucky. I have to admit that I was kind of surprised at this. Here I had thought the Wraiths had been a LOT unluckier in one possession games.
ARI: 15 games, 9-6
OCO: 17 games, 7-10
SJS: 14 games, 6-8
LVL: 11 games, 4-7
At first it surprised me that Arizona had so many close wins, but with 34 wins, SOME are going to be close. What's really surprising is that Baltimore has had so many close games, more than half their games. So, it seems that these teams are relatively even, with Arizona being the luckiest and the Legion the unluckiest. By that logic, Arizona should be the worst team in point differential relative to record, and the Legion the best. Spoiler alert: this will not be the case.
Below is a HORRIBLY formatted table (quote it and it looks a LOT more readable, not sure why) showing each team's record, total points for, total points against, average margin of victory, average margin of defeat, and average point differential per game.
Team: Record TPF-TPA TPD AMoV AMoD APD/G
Legion 5-23 410-779 5.8 -17.3 -13.2
Cats 13-28 738-1003 13.5 -15.7 -6.3
Yeti 19-23 700-841 11.0 -15.3 -3.4
Liberty 13-14 571-609 12.6 -14.4 -1.4
Hawks 21-21 839-870 10.8 -12.2 -0.7
Wraiths 23-19 888-795 11.7 -9.4 2.2
Otters 25-17 926-703 15.6 -9.9 5.3
Outlaws 34-8 1073-545 16.9 -5.8 12.6
Looking at this, you can see the Otters really have been the second-best team throughout three seasons. Not only do they have the second best record, but their wins more dominant and losses closer than any team save Arizona. Additionally, you can see that the Wraiths have easily been the best NSFC team. They have the ONLY positive point differential in the conference, and their wins are stronger than their losses.
I really feel there is more to be gleaned from this. Other actual mathematicians welcome to chime in.
This got me thinking, which teams have squeezed out the most wins or barely missed the most losses? Additionally, how do teams' total win-loss records compare with their total point differentials?
First, let's look at one possession games. In the NFL, they are considered basically 50% chances. Due to the...special clock management in the NSFL, that may not be the case, but it is still the standard. We'll start with the NSFC.
COL: 17 games, 9-8
YKW: 18 games, 10-8
BAL: 24 games, 13-11
PHI: 10 games, 5-5
Wow. So...gonna go out on a limb and say the AFSC has not been QUITE as lucky. I have to admit that I was kind of surprised at this. Here I had thought the Wraiths had been a LOT unluckier in one possession games.
ARI: 15 games, 9-6
OCO: 17 games, 7-10
SJS: 14 games, 6-8
LVL: 11 games, 4-7
At first it surprised me that Arizona had so many close wins, but with 34 wins, SOME are going to be close. What's really surprising is that Baltimore has had so many close games, more than half their games. So, it seems that these teams are relatively even, with Arizona being the luckiest and the Legion the unluckiest. By that logic, Arizona should be the worst team in point differential relative to record, and the Legion the best. Spoiler alert: this will not be the case.
Below is a HORRIBLY formatted table (quote it and it looks a LOT more readable, not sure why) showing each team's record, total points for, total points against, average margin of victory, average margin of defeat, and average point differential per game.
Team: Record TPF-TPA TPD AMoV AMoD APD/G
Legion 5-23 410-779 5.8 -17.3 -13.2
Cats 13-28 738-1003 13.5 -15.7 -6.3
Yeti 19-23 700-841 11.0 -15.3 -3.4
Liberty 13-14 571-609 12.6 -14.4 -1.4
Hawks 21-21 839-870 10.8 -12.2 -0.7
Wraiths 23-19 888-795 11.7 -9.4 2.2
Otters 25-17 926-703 15.6 -9.9 5.3
Outlaws 34-8 1073-545 16.9 -5.8 12.6
Looking at this, you can see the Otters really have been the second-best team throughout three seasons. Not only do they have the second best record, but their wins more dominant and losses closer than any team save Arizona. Additionally, you can see that the Wraiths have easily been the best NSFC team. They have the ONLY positive point differential in the conference, and their wins are stronger than their losses.
I really feel there is more to be gleaned from this. Other actual mathematicians welcome to chime in.
![[Image: BVsashy.png]](https://i.imgur.com/BVsashy.png)
