*NSFL Week 3 & 4 Watchability Rankings

[Modern_Duke]

Your weekly ranking of the games by how exciting they should be to watch. Based on the following:

Team Factor: Team 1's Win % x Team 2's Win % - Pretty straight forward measure of the quality of the two teams playing. Multiplying the percentages rather than adding them together should better account for how closely matched the two teams are as well, so like two 5-5 teams playing each other will get a higher score than an 8-2 team playing a 2-8 team.

Offensive Factor: There are probably a few really good ways to measure how exciting an offense is (yards per play, long touchdowns) but at the end of the day an exciting offense just scores a lot, so I'll just keep it nice and simple with the average of Team 1 and Team 2's points per game (divided by 100 to scale with the Team Factor).

Defensive Factor: Here I didn't want to just use points per game, because, well, go watch a game that ends 3-0 and tell me that it was constantly exciting. If you want excitement on defense, you have to look at the big plays like sacks and turnovers. I was previously using Sacks/Play and Turnovers/Play, but, well, this don't pay well enough for me to pull the data every time. So now I'm adjusting it to (Sacks+6*Turnovers) per game (divided by 100). Seems to work pretty much the same anyway.

X Factor: What is going on in this game that isn't covered in the stats? A big divisional rivalry? A lot of trash talk before the game? A playoff spot on the line? Here I will try to assign a number to express those intangible factors...So if this whole thing is going to be completely arbitrary anyway, why use statistics at all? Well, I don't know, that's just kind of my thing. Don't be mean.

I have started to mix in S18 stats. This time will be weighted 25% on S18 stats and 75% on S17, and I'll keep increasing the S18 weight as we get further into the season. Also, this one is a little rushed, so I didn't really look for X Factors.

10. (Week 4) Austin Copperheads at San Jose SaberCats
Team Factor: 0.0999
Offensive Factor: .1904
Defensive Factor: .0868
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.3771
Notes: 0-2 vs 0-2. San Jose has had some struggles in scoring so far to say the least.

9. (Week 4) Yellowknife Wraiths at Philadelphia Liberty
Team Factor: 0.1692
Offensive Factor: .2386
Defensive Factor: .1301
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.5379
Notes: This system doesn't seem to like Philadelphia much. I recommend they score more.

8. (Week 4) Colorado Yeti at New Orleans Second Line
Team Factor: 0.1988
Offensive Factor: .2456
Defensive Factor: .1077
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.5521

7. (Week 3) Baltimore Hawks at Philadephia Liberty
Team Factor: 0.2053
Offensive Factor: .2409
Defensive Factor: .1104
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.5565

6. (Week 3) San Jose SaberCats at Yellowknife Wraiths
Team Factor: 0.2030
Offensive Factor: .2368
Defensive Factor: .1012
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.5588

5. (Week 3) Orange County Otters at Austin Copperheads
Team Factor: 0.1886
Offensive Factor: .2500
Defensive Factor: .1265
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.5651

4. (Week 3) Chicago Butchers at Colorado Yeti
Team Factor: 0.2425
Offensive Factor: .2454
Defensive Factor: .1088
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.5967

3. (Week 3) Arizona Outlaws at New Orleans Second Line
Team Factor: 0.3097
Offensive Factor: .2771
Defensive Factor: .1059
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.6927

2. (Week 4) Baltimore Hawks at Chicago Butchers
Team Factor: 0.4173
Offensive Factor: .2840
Defensive Factor: .1060
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.8073

1. (Week 4) Arizona Outlaws at Orange County Otters
Team Factor: 0.4212
Offensive Factor: .2915
Defensive Factor: .1400
X Factor: +0.10
Watchability Index: 0.9528
Notes: Actually, I will throw in a quick X Factor bump for this classic division rivalry.

[goodvsevil1275]

I don't want to tolerate the Philly slander but we also need to do something first lol

[Frostbite]

An anti-philly man right here

[Bigred1580]

"This system doesn't seem to like Philadelphia much. I recommend they score more."

lol