After a strong start to the season, Boss Tweed has struggled mightily over the last three games. In the first seven games of the season, Tweed had 79 carries for 367 yards. This means he averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Over the past three games, Tweed has ran the ball 22 times for 53 yards for a total of 2.4 yards per carry. This sudden drop off has had many questioning what is wrong with Tweed. During this three game stretch, not only has Tweed personally struggled, but the Yeti have gone 0-3 after a 6-1 start. While Tweed’s struggles are not the only reason for the Yeti’s slump, his inefficient play has likely contributed to drives stalling out and the Yeti’s offense struggling to stay on the field. Diagnosing the source of Tweed’s struggles may a key step for the Yeti in returning to their winning ways from earlier in the season.
One of the key factors to a running back’s success is the play of his offensive line. Many believe the Yeti’s offensive line is one of the league’s weakest lines. In the Yeti’s latest outing against the Otters, Logan Noble was sacked 7 times. The Yeti have just two user offensive linemen, which ties them with the Hawks for least in the league. Even though Bender Rodriguez is one of the league’s top offensive linemen, the rest of the line leaves something to be desired. Perhaps the offensive line was over performing earlier in the year and now that it is regressing to its expected level, Tweed’s production is likewise declining. We can test this hypothesis by comparing Tweed’s production to that of the Yeti’s other running backs during this three game stretch. Kieran O’Connell has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over the last three games and Luke Tiernan has averaged 21 for 4.0 yards per carry. O’Connell’s YPC over that stretch is 0.2 yards above his season average and Tiernan’s is also 0.2 yards above his season average. Meanwhile, Tweed’s YPC over the last three games is a whopping 1.8 yards below his season average. Since all three running backs are running behind the same line, it seems unlikely that the offensive line is responsible for Tweed’s falloff in production. However, it’s possible that Tweed’s running style is more reliant on offensive line play that O’Connell’s and Tiernan’s are. For example, O’Connell’s strength is 8 points higher than Tweed’s strength and Tiernan’s strength is 18 points higher than Tweed’s strength. Perhaps the other two backs are able to use their strength to break more tackles so they are less impacted when the line cannot open up holes. Tweed has focused on training strength this week and has increased his strength by 8, so if strength is a deciding factor, he should see a boost after the weekend. Also, the Yeti recently acquired offensive lineman Brokk Lee, who excels in run blocking and gives the Yeti a third user offensive lineman. Regardless of if the offensive line is the cause of Tweed’s struggles, its improvement should be a positive sign towards Tweed getting back on track.
Since the Yeti’s other running backs are not struggling, it is also possible that Tweed himself is responsible for his struggles. Scouts were evidently not very high on Tweed entering the league as he fell to the seventeenth round of the draft. If their evaluations were correct, maybe Tweed is simply a below average player who got off to a hot start. Now that teams have more tape on him, they may be able to shut him down more easily. However, late round picks have succeeded in the past and Tweed’s good play lasted for a longer period of time than his current poor play. If Tweed continues to play poorly, we may have to consider this possibility more closely though. Although the NSFL does not make any public injury announcements, some have speculated that Tweed could be nursing some sort of injury that is slowing him down. If this is the case, he should naturally return to a higher level of play when he recovers. However, without injury information, it is hard to pass judgement on this possibility.
The other possibility is simply that there is nothing wrong. Due to the Yeti’s three headed monster in the backfield, it is difficult to put too much weight on individual performances because they Yeti’s backs get less carries per game than running backs on teams with a lead back. In this three game stretch, Tweed has carried the ball 22 times, which is how many carries some running backs get in one game. The trend is less concerning if looked at as the equivalent of one bad game rather than three bad games. The Yeti’s two other running backs have also had outlier poor performances during the season due to the lower amount of carries Yeti running backs receive per game. In fact, in almost every game since the Yeti switched to a three back system, at least one running back seems to have a lower than average yard per carry. Both of the other backs have managed to bounce back from these poor games, so it is reasonable to expect Boss Tweed to bounce back to a higher level naturally over time. Tweed has also had good outlier games, such as when he averaged 6.5 yards per carry on 10 carries against the Hawks. Outliers can lead to unpredictable statistics in individual games due to the low sample size of carries. It could be better to evaluate Tweed on the season as a whole to use a larger sample size. In this case, he has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over the season, tied for fourth best. Statistically, Tweed’s numbers should average back out, so there is not too much cause for worry unless his poor play continues longer and becomes the new norm. If there is an actual cause for Tweed’s struggles, he better fix it quickly before the playoffs or else he could jeopardize the Yeti’s championship aspirations.
One of the key factors to a running back’s success is the play of his offensive line. Many believe the Yeti’s offensive line is one of the league’s weakest lines. In the Yeti’s latest outing against the Otters, Logan Noble was sacked 7 times. The Yeti have just two user offensive linemen, which ties them with the Hawks for least in the league. Even though Bender Rodriguez is one of the league’s top offensive linemen, the rest of the line leaves something to be desired. Perhaps the offensive line was over performing earlier in the year and now that it is regressing to its expected level, Tweed’s production is likewise declining. We can test this hypothesis by comparing Tweed’s production to that of the Yeti’s other running backs during this three game stretch. Kieran O’Connell has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over the last three games and Luke Tiernan has averaged 21 for 4.0 yards per carry. O’Connell’s YPC over that stretch is 0.2 yards above his season average and Tiernan’s is also 0.2 yards above his season average. Meanwhile, Tweed’s YPC over the last three games is a whopping 1.8 yards below his season average. Since all three running backs are running behind the same line, it seems unlikely that the offensive line is responsible for Tweed’s falloff in production. However, it’s possible that Tweed’s running style is more reliant on offensive line play that O’Connell’s and Tiernan’s are. For example, O’Connell’s strength is 8 points higher than Tweed’s strength and Tiernan’s strength is 18 points higher than Tweed’s strength. Perhaps the other two backs are able to use their strength to break more tackles so they are less impacted when the line cannot open up holes. Tweed has focused on training strength this week and has increased his strength by 8, so if strength is a deciding factor, he should see a boost after the weekend. Also, the Yeti recently acquired offensive lineman Brokk Lee, who excels in run blocking and gives the Yeti a third user offensive lineman. Regardless of if the offensive line is the cause of Tweed’s struggles, its improvement should be a positive sign towards Tweed getting back on track.
Since the Yeti’s other running backs are not struggling, it is also possible that Tweed himself is responsible for his struggles. Scouts were evidently not very high on Tweed entering the league as he fell to the seventeenth round of the draft. If their evaluations were correct, maybe Tweed is simply a below average player who got off to a hot start. Now that teams have more tape on him, they may be able to shut him down more easily. However, late round picks have succeeded in the past and Tweed’s good play lasted for a longer period of time than his current poor play. If Tweed continues to play poorly, we may have to consider this possibility more closely though. Although the NSFL does not make any public injury announcements, some have speculated that Tweed could be nursing some sort of injury that is slowing him down. If this is the case, he should naturally return to a higher level of play when he recovers. However, without injury information, it is hard to pass judgement on this possibility.
The other possibility is simply that there is nothing wrong. Due to the Yeti’s three headed monster in the backfield, it is difficult to put too much weight on individual performances because they Yeti’s backs get less carries per game than running backs on teams with a lead back. In this three game stretch, Tweed has carried the ball 22 times, which is how many carries some running backs get in one game. The trend is less concerning if looked at as the equivalent of one bad game rather than three bad games. The Yeti’s two other running backs have also had outlier poor performances during the season due to the lower amount of carries Yeti running backs receive per game. In fact, in almost every game since the Yeti switched to a three back system, at least one running back seems to have a lower than average yard per carry. Both of the other backs have managed to bounce back from these poor games, so it is reasonable to expect Boss Tweed to bounce back to a higher level naturally over time. Tweed has also had good outlier games, such as when he averaged 6.5 yards per carry on 10 carries against the Hawks. Outliers can lead to unpredictable statistics in individual games due to the low sample size of carries. It could be better to evaluate Tweed on the season as a whole to use a larger sample size. In this case, he has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over the season, tied for fourth best. Statistically, Tweed’s numbers should average back out, so there is not too much cause for worry unless his poor play continues longer and becomes the new norm. If there is an actual cause for Tweed’s struggles, he better fix it quickly before the playoffs or else he could jeopardize the Yeti’s championship aspirations.
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Keep up the great work and I'm sure you'll bounce back. Two big sims today should help that out too.
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