The discussion of who are the top receivers in the league stirred some ideas, as with only 6 teams, and probably 7 to 9 WRs who could be #1s, it’s tough to compare some of those players.
With that in mind, I tried to come up with a way to compare the receivers in the league on a somewhat even playing field. There’s a lot of factors that can’t be measured – one being the strength of competition; who’s going up against a team’s top corner? How would a player’s average change with increased receptions? Since stuff like that couldn’t be measured, I had to kind of leave it out.
The next thing of concern was team’s strategies. Some teams are more pass heavy, and that in turn would give those receivers a better opportunity. The only way to correct for that is to assume a static number of receptions for each receiver, which is really just ranking the receivers by average yards per reception. Which we have a stat for and really isn’t all that interesting.
So, I tried to make it a little interesting. I found the receiver who got the best opportunity – the highest percentage of his team’s receptions. That baseline was Robert Phelps. He’s got 58 receptions out of his team’s total of 190 receptions. Good for 30.53%, just slightly above the share Lincoln Jefferson gets, of 30.36%.
So with that, I then reversed that back, and then reversed the calculation for each receiver with that reception share. Since I can’t adjust the average yards, I just had to assume that even with more receptions, their average would remain the same. I left TEs out, and calculated it for each of the top 3 receivers on each team.
30.53% share of receptions for each team:
ARI – 168 * 30.53% = 51
BAL – 179 * 30.53% = 55
COL – 173 * 30.53% = 53
OCO – 190 * 30.53% = 58
SJS – 195 * 30.53% = 60
YKW – 187 * 30.53% = 57
So, if the #1 receiver on San Jose got the same opportunity as Phelps on Orange County, he would have 60 receptions. I multiplied that by their average to get each player’s yards based on that opportunity. I calculated touchdowns as well, based on their percentage of touchdowns to receptions.
Without further ado, the numbers:
Jefferson, L. -------- 51 --- 641 --- 6
Stormblessed, N. -- 51 --- 1036 --- 7
Bronko, K. --------- 51 --- 656 --- 4
West, D. ------------ 55 --- 798 --- 3
Christmas, C. ------ 55 --- 831 --- 3
Lecavalier, R. ------- 55 --- 546 --- 7
Hendrix, K. --------- 53 --- 644 --- 4
Law, D. ------------- 53 --- 750 --- 6
Shaloiko, J. -------- 53 --- 607 --- 2
Phelps, R. ---------- 58 --- 789 --- 3
Westfield, B. ------- 58 --- 945 --- 8
Cook, B. ------------ 60 --- 863 --- 3
Weston, S. --------- 60 --- 708 --- 3
Mademe, R. -------- 60 --- 417 --- 0
Garden, J. ---------- 57 --- 982 --- 5
LeClair, A. ---------- 57 --- 719 --- 4
Stephen, W. -------- 57 --- 651 --- 0
(The Otters literally have only 2 listed WRs who have a reception, so I didn’t even have a 3rd option there)
So, there are some clear guys who separate from the pack. Stormblessed is the only guy to crack 1000 yards, and Westfield and Garden join him as the only guys over 900. Westfield leads everyone with 8 TDs, Stormblessed with 7 is second. Bailey Cook and Cooper Christmas lock themselves in as #1s in San Jose and Baltimore, respectively. And then that leaves DJ Law taking the clear #1 job in Colorado. It definitely opens up a clear distinction between #1 guys and #2 guys, and makes things much clearer for the top 5 receivers. Simply put, it would be the 5 guys with over 800 yards. Than you get a clear second grouping of guys over 700 yards but less than 800, plus a red zone threat in Jefferson.
My rankings:
1. Stormblessed – 1036 yards, 7 TDs. Simply put his yard count is dominant. Averaging just over 20 yards a catch, probably the only reason he isn’t the #1 guy now is because he can’t hold onto the ball to get up to 50 receptions. He’s got the most yards on the fewest receptions. 1 touchdown off the lead, that doesn’t change that he’s the definite #1 in the league.
2. Bradley Westfield – 945 yards, 8 TDs. A great threat all over the field, he racks up the yards and racks up the TDs. Orange County gave Phelps the bigger share of the catches, but maybe they wish they’d given it to Westfield instead.
3. Josh Garden – 982 yards, 5 TDs. Doesn’t have the TD numbers to hang with Westfield and Stormblessed, but he is a clear dominating player, as 5 TD is nothing to scoff at. 982 yards is elite level production. He could easily hold the #2 spot, it’s really a toss up between him and Westfield, depending on which you find more valuable for a receiver – 37 yards or 3 touchdowns.
4. Bailey Cook – 863 yards, 3 TDs. Already the #1 guy in San Jose, he cements that here, as this tabulation only brings his already elite numbers up. He’s struggled to find the end zone, but so has most of San Jose.
5. Cooper Christmas – 831 yards, 3 TDs. He displaces Damian West as the #1 in Baltimore. They have the same number of yards, but Christmas edges him out by 33 yards. Essentially the same as Cook in every other aspect, a guy who sits in the mid 800s in yards, with 3 TDs. They’re interchangeable at 4 & 5, whoever gets more touchdowns gets this one. And if they stay the same, it goes to the yard leader, which is Cook.
The Next Guys
6. DJ Law – 750 yards, 6 TDs. He knocks Kendrick Hendrix out of the top spot in Colorado, clearly besting him in both yards and TDs. This 6th spot could go to a couple guys, but again the question of which do you value more? 3 TD difference in this case bumps Law up to #6.
7. Damian West – 798 yards, 3 TDs. It wouldn’t take much to jump West up to 6 or up to 5 even. He sits at 7 because of his struggle to find the end zone. A couple of TDs and he could find himself all the way up to 4. One of the few players who could make a big move near the top if he can find a groove.
8. Robert Phelps – 789 yards, 3 TDs. In the same boat as West, it’s a guy who has struggled to fin the end zone. The difference is, he’s locked in as his team’s #2 receiver, as Westfield has dominated, with 5 TDs over Phelps. The difference between Phelps and West is basically zero at this point, and with a few touchdowns could easily jump to #6. He’d be hard pressed to find himself in the top 5 unless Baltimore forgets how to offence.
9. Lincoln Jefferson – 641 yards, 6 TDs. Jefferson finds himself at #9 thanks to his TD numbers. He’s ranked 14th out of 17 in yards, of the players calculated, But creeps into the top 10 on the strength of his touchdowns. He’s locked in here to the #2 slot on the Outlaws, as Stormblessed is the clear go to guy. Jefferson doesn’t really have much of a shot to move up this list, only stop himself from moving down.
10. Alexandre LeClair – 719 yards, 4 TDs. LeClair sneaks into the top 10, on the strength of his yards. He’s definitely the #2 in Yellowknife, and he’s played exactly like that. He’s putting up just the numbers you want to see out of a second guy, a reliable option, but not so much that he might be disgruntled as a #2.
The Last Guys
11. Ryan Lecavalier – 546 yards, 7 TDs. Purely on TD numbers. He got edged out by LeClair, he barely edges out Weston at 12.
12. Shane Weston – 708 yards, 3 TDs. Barely edged out by LeClair. 1 TD is really the difference between 10 and 12.
13. Kiko Bronko – 656 yards, 4 TDs. Barely edges out Hendrix for 13th, Bronko is the 3rd string in Arizona, but those are still very respectable numbers.
14. Kendrick Hendrix – 644 yards, 4 TDs. Beat out by Bronko on yards alone, Hendrix who is actually the current #1 in Colorado, is ranked 14th here, as it’s shown he gets outperformed by a lot of other receivers if they were given the #1 opportunity.
15. Jonathan Shaloiko – 607 yards, 2 TDs. Beat out the last 2 receivers on touchdown power. The #3 choice in Colorado, though not really that far behind Hendrix.
16. Wizard Stephen – 651 yards, 0 TDs. Respectable yardage numbers, but one of only 2 players without a TD. A definite #3 guy.
17. RFFO Mademe – 417 yards, 0 TDs. The #3 for the SaberCats, and he really isn’t even a #3, as his numbers are awful, he’d get edged out by a TE and probably even a RB before he ever got a chance at #1. By far the worst option of the players on this list.
As much as I would have liked to adjust this for average yards, there wasn’t really a way to do it. There are some current averages that if given #1 duty would likely change. If Stormblessed had 20 more receptions, could he keep up that 20 YPC pace? Probably not. A guy like Weston on the other side, if he was given #1 duty, would he improve his 11.9 YPC? Probably. The elite guys right now hover around 14-16 YPC. There’s nothing I could do to fix that though, so you live with what you’ve got. Overall I still think this is a decent little project to try and rank the WRs of the league.
![[Image: 8Dy54LO.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/8Dy54LO.jpg)
With that in mind, I tried to come up with a way to compare the receivers in the league on a somewhat even playing field. There’s a lot of factors that can’t be measured – one being the strength of competition; who’s going up against a team’s top corner? How would a player’s average change with increased receptions? Since stuff like that couldn’t be measured, I had to kind of leave it out.
The next thing of concern was team’s strategies. Some teams are more pass heavy, and that in turn would give those receivers a better opportunity. The only way to correct for that is to assume a static number of receptions for each receiver, which is really just ranking the receivers by average yards per reception. Which we have a stat for and really isn’t all that interesting.
So, I tried to make it a little interesting. I found the receiver who got the best opportunity – the highest percentage of his team’s receptions. That baseline was Robert Phelps. He’s got 58 receptions out of his team’s total of 190 receptions. Good for 30.53%, just slightly above the share Lincoln Jefferson gets, of 30.36%.
So with that, I then reversed that back, and then reversed the calculation for each receiver with that reception share. Since I can’t adjust the average yards, I just had to assume that even with more receptions, their average would remain the same. I left TEs out, and calculated it for each of the top 3 receivers on each team.
30.53% share of receptions for each team:
ARI – 168 * 30.53% = 51
BAL – 179 * 30.53% = 55
COL – 173 * 30.53% = 53
OCO – 190 * 30.53% = 58
SJS – 195 * 30.53% = 60
YKW – 187 * 30.53% = 57
So, if the #1 receiver on San Jose got the same opportunity as Phelps on Orange County, he would have 60 receptions. I multiplied that by their average to get each player’s yards based on that opportunity. I calculated touchdowns as well, based on their percentage of touchdowns to receptions.
Without further ado, the numbers:
Jefferson, L. -------- 51 --- 641 --- 6
Stormblessed, N. -- 51 --- 1036 --- 7
Bronko, K. --------- 51 --- 656 --- 4
West, D. ------------ 55 --- 798 --- 3
Christmas, C. ------ 55 --- 831 --- 3
Lecavalier, R. ------- 55 --- 546 --- 7
Hendrix, K. --------- 53 --- 644 --- 4
Law, D. ------------- 53 --- 750 --- 6
Shaloiko, J. -------- 53 --- 607 --- 2
Phelps, R. ---------- 58 --- 789 --- 3
Westfield, B. ------- 58 --- 945 --- 8
Cook, B. ------------ 60 --- 863 --- 3
Weston, S. --------- 60 --- 708 --- 3
Mademe, R. -------- 60 --- 417 --- 0
Garden, J. ---------- 57 --- 982 --- 5
LeClair, A. ---------- 57 --- 719 --- 4
Stephen, W. -------- 57 --- 651 --- 0
(The Otters literally have only 2 listed WRs who have a reception, so I didn’t even have a 3rd option there)
So, there are some clear guys who separate from the pack. Stormblessed is the only guy to crack 1000 yards, and Westfield and Garden join him as the only guys over 900. Westfield leads everyone with 8 TDs, Stormblessed with 7 is second. Bailey Cook and Cooper Christmas lock themselves in as #1s in San Jose and Baltimore, respectively. And then that leaves DJ Law taking the clear #1 job in Colorado. It definitely opens up a clear distinction between #1 guys and #2 guys, and makes things much clearer for the top 5 receivers. Simply put, it would be the 5 guys with over 800 yards. Than you get a clear second grouping of guys over 700 yards but less than 800, plus a red zone threat in Jefferson.
My rankings:
1. Stormblessed – 1036 yards, 7 TDs. Simply put his yard count is dominant. Averaging just over 20 yards a catch, probably the only reason he isn’t the #1 guy now is because he can’t hold onto the ball to get up to 50 receptions. He’s got the most yards on the fewest receptions. 1 touchdown off the lead, that doesn’t change that he’s the definite #1 in the league.
2. Bradley Westfield – 945 yards, 8 TDs. A great threat all over the field, he racks up the yards and racks up the TDs. Orange County gave Phelps the bigger share of the catches, but maybe they wish they’d given it to Westfield instead.
3. Josh Garden – 982 yards, 5 TDs. Doesn’t have the TD numbers to hang with Westfield and Stormblessed, but he is a clear dominating player, as 5 TD is nothing to scoff at. 982 yards is elite level production. He could easily hold the #2 spot, it’s really a toss up between him and Westfield, depending on which you find more valuable for a receiver – 37 yards or 3 touchdowns.
4. Bailey Cook – 863 yards, 3 TDs. Already the #1 guy in San Jose, he cements that here, as this tabulation only brings his already elite numbers up. He’s struggled to find the end zone, but so has most of San Jose.
5. Cooper Christmas – 831 yards, 3 TDs. He displaces Damian West as the #1 in Baltimore. They have the same number of yards, but Christmas edges him out by 33 yards. Essentially the same as Cook in every other aspect, a guy who sits in the mid 800s in yards, with 3 TDs. They’re interchangeable at 4 & 5, whoever gets more touchdowns gets this one. And if they stay the same, it goes to the yard leader, which is Cook.
The Next Guys
6. DJ Law – 750 yards, 6 TDs. He knocks Kendrick Hendrix out of the top spot in Colorado, clearly besting him in both yards and TDs. This 6th spot could go to a couple guys, but again the question of which do you value more? 3 TD difference in this case bumps Law up to #6.
7. Damian West – 798 yards, 3 TDs. It wouldn’t take much to jump West up to 6 or up to 5 even. He sits at 7 because of his struggle to find the end zone. A couple of TDs and he could find himself all the way up to 4. One of the few players who could make a big move near the top if he can find a groove.
8. Robert Phelps – 789 yards, 3 TDs. In the same boat as West, it’s a guy who has struggled to fin the end zone. The difference is, he’s locked in as his team’s #2 receiver, as Westfield has dominated, with 5 TDs over Phelps. The difference between Phelps and West is basically zero at this point, and with a few touchdowns could easily jump to #6. He’d be hard pressed to find himself in the top 5 unless Baltimore forgets how to offence.
9. Lincoln Jefferson – 641 yards, 6 TDs. Jefferson finds himself at #9 thanks to his TD numbers. He’s ranked 14th out of 17 in yards, of the players calculated, But creeps into the top 10 on the strength of his touchdowns. He’s locked in here to the #2 slot on the Outlaws, as Stormblessed is the clear go to guy. Jefferson doesn’t really have much of a shot to move up this list, only stop himself from moving down.
10. Alexandre LeClair – 719 yards, 4 TDs. LeClair sneaks into the top 10, on the strength of his yards. He’s definitely the #2 in Yellowknife, and he’s played exactly like that. He’s putting up just the numbers you want to see out of a second guy, a reliable option, but not so much that he might be disgruntled as a #2.
The Last Guys
11. Ryan Lecavalier – 546 yards, 7 TDs. Purely on TD numbers. He got edged out by LeClair, he barely edges out Weston at 12.
12. Shane Weston – 708 yards, 3 TDs. Barely edged out by LeClair. 1 TD is really the difference between 10 and 12.
13. Kiko Bronko – 656 yards, 4 TDs. Barely edges out Hendrix for 13th, Bronko is the 3rd string in Arizona, but those are still very respectable numbers.
14. Kendrick Hendrix – 644 yards, 4 TDs. Beat out by Bronko on yards alone, Hendrix who is actually the current #1 in Colorado, is ranked 14th here, as it’s shown he gets outperformed by a lot of other receivers if they were given the #1 opportunity.
15. Jonathan Shaloiko – 607 yards, 2 TDs. Beat out the last 2 receivers on touchdown power. The #3 choice in Colorado, though not really that far behind Hendrix.
16. Wizard Stephen – 651 yards, 0 TDs. Respectable yardage numbers, but one of only 2 players without a TD. A definite #3 guy.
17. RFFO Mademe – 417 yards, 0 TDs. The #3 for the SaberCats, and he really isn’t even a #3, as his numbers are awful, he’d get edged out by a TE and probably even a RB before he ever got a chance at #1. By far the worst option of the players on this list.
As much as I would have liked to adjust this for average yards, there wasn’t really a way to do it. There are some current averages that if given #1 duty would likely change. If Stormblessed had 20 more receptions, could he keep up that 20 YPC pace? Probably not. A guy like Weston on the other side, if he was given #1 duty, would he improve his 11.9 YPC? Probably. The elite guys right now hover around 14-16 YPC. There’s nothing I could do to fix that though, so you live with what you’ve got. Overall I still think this is a decent little project to try and rank the WRs of the league.
Code:
1628 words + 657 in excel sheet
![[Image: SymmNSFL.gif]](http://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/SymmNSFL.gif)
![[Image: USs0IGI.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/USs0IGI.jpg)
![[Image: ks8edQk.png]](http://i.imgur.com/ks8edQk.png)
![[Image: 26alt.png]](https://9cherry.com/images/26alt.png)
![[Image: XSfVUgo.png]](https://i.imgur.com/XSfVUgo.png)
![[Image: HqcYqrC.png]](http://imgur.com/HqcYqrC.png)
[/div][div align=center][/divalign]
Love seeing this analytical stuff come up!
![[Image: Kawai_Bartok-01.png]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/896232509690490880/906254243231572060/Kawai_Bartok-01.png)
