*S10 Predictions

[kckolbe]

San Jose has gotten young pieces at CB (Poopsie and Troyski), LB (Horne and Deringer), Safeties are regressing yes, but overall the defense should be better than Arizonas. The Offense as well, as you stated, has both Oles and Flash, Lagerfield will hurt a bit with fumbles, but Mackworthy is how far into regression? Oh, you think tha Zapp isn't anything?

Going off TPE alone, Flash and Oles are close to Squash's TPE Total. They are season 9 and 10 respectfully, while Squash is Season 8. Also, both of San Jose's WRs have passed Chess in TPE as well. You did state that Akselsen has 200ish TPE on you, that's not too bad.

Stat Wise

Akselsen has

90 Arm
80 INT
90 Acc

you are at

80 Arm
88 INT
90 Acc

With him retiring and you progressing this year, in theory, you should pass him.

Crindy does have 150-ish TPE on Zapp, but how important is a TE? Yes and no, it can make a difference, but it is not one of the most important positions.


If anything SJ Defense > ARI Defense

SJ Offense > ARI Offense.

I will give you Special teams tho

so ARI ST > SJ ST


Overall, I do not see Arizona being a better team then San Jose, but who knows with how the sim works.

I did rate SJS' defense as better than ARI's, so no disagreement there.

For offense, you have to consider offensive line, where ARI has a huge advantage over SJS. Receivers are pretty even if you group WR and TE, so just gonna call that a draw. Crindy is more blocker than receiver anyways.

Regarding Akselsen, I believe I will catch him as a passer this update. Had he been regressed in a way that only took away his rushing ability, he'd be a much better passer than Fitz. Had he been built as a game-managing passer with top speed, he'd be a better weapon than Fitz. Unfortunately, he lost 10 points from the second most important QB attribute (INT) and from the most important rushing attribute (SPD), leaving him not much of a threat in either area. This is one of those cases where build beats TPE. He still could be a viable rushing threat, but to do that, you have you use Spread, which also seems to raise interception rates (at least in the tests I've had shown to me). Given that he is already interception prone due to lower intelligence, that's a risky strategy.

For Mack v Lagerfield, the offensive line is really what makes the difference. He did get worse from last year, but his blocking got better. As you hopefully saw against Colorado, Mackworthy is gonna do just fine this year, and will likely be as good or better on fantasy points.

I am not saying Arizona has more raw talent than SJS, as I do think SJS has more, but ARI has a much more cohesive roster, which makes their strategies more successful.