*What is Philly Doing?

[kckolbe]

There's a few holes in your argument as it stands. First off, if you're building a team from the ground up, why use a first round pick on a fullback? Yes, the position is helpful to the run game but, fullback is absolutely a luxury position. Why fill a luxury position in the first round when you could've taken someone like Tryoski or Hobbs to help shore-up much more valuabe positions in your secondary for many seasons to come?

Next, a big reason Bly left is because he was sick of losing. Obviously I don't want to speak for him, but going to a team that just went 0-14 last season is magnitudes worse than a teams that just finished 2nd in the NSFC.

Lastly, you say that Philly is a fringe payoff team. Outside of S1, I'm not sure a team with a rookie QB has ever made the playoffs, and if they did, it was because of a well established team around that QB. Philly doesn't have that. Do I think that Philly will be good in a couple seasons? Absolutely. This season though? Not so much.

First off, Falconi isn't a real rookie. Falconi is a 2nd year QB, and last year a second year QB (Showbiz) made the playoffs. And yes, he obviously had significant talent around him. In Falconi's case, Philly might actually make the playoffs with as little as 4-5 wins, due to the situations in Yellowknife and Colorado. I'll be releasing power rankings this week (I have to keep re-doing them), but I had Philly between Colorado and Yellowknife before this trade. They very well might be the #2 NSFC team now.

That said, that's even worse for them long term. Now, instead of picking 3rd overall like I was projecting, they could end up picking 5th overall in rounds 1, 3, and 4. That is about as bad (if not worse) as flat out losing their 4th round pick.

Even if Philly makes the playoffs (again, possible), they would 100% be on the road, and have about a 5% shot at advancing past Baltimore and the same shot at winning it all. If you give them a 50% shot of making the playoffs to begin with, that is a 1 in 800 shot of a championship.